While pandemics are comparatively rare, and severe ones rarer still, I am not aware of a historical episode that can provide any insight as to the likely economic consequences of the unfolding global coronavirus crisis. This time truly is different.

Carmen Reinhart

For the past two centuries, a "double bust" (in commodities and capital flows) has led to a spike in sovereign defaults. Yet they have risen only modestly since the peak in commodity prices and global capital flows around 2011.

Carmen Reinhart

The US has run chronic current-account deficits for almost two generations. Pointing the finger at surplus countries is getting old.

Carmen Reinhart

Following the victory of the Leave campaign in the UK Brexit referendum and of Donald Trump in the US election, focus has shifted to the upcoming referendum in Italy. There is a disquieting real-time poll of investor sentiment.

Carmen Reinhart