For the last few months, I've been concerned that a bear market was likely to unfold. We are now on such a trajectory. History suggests that such episodes come in two distinct extremes.

I am not at all sure that an eventual interest rate increase from the Federal Reserve should be dismissed as an event with little impact in the real world.

I am convinced that both economies and markets are reaching a point of transition where one of two discrete outcomes is likely. Portfolios must offer the potential for reasonable performance in either eventuality.

We now have enough history to determine who the winners were from 25 years of globalisation. The answer? Small countries. The investment conclusion is obvious - overweight good companies listed in small countries.

These are words that I utter with the utmost caution - this time, it really is different. For something genuinely new to the modern experience, consider the curious case of collapsing equity volatility.

Indexing, as I have written before, is a form of socialism, since capital is allocated not as it should be. It is hard to think of a more stupid way to allocate this scarce resource.

It has been my contention for a while that capitalism is returning to its 19th century deflationary roots. Indeed, the evidence has become overwhelming.

The Islamist surge through central Iraq has the potential to upset the plans of investors who've convinced themselves that volatility is in the past.

Tomorrow we expect to see the latest Band-Aid solution being applied to the eurozone. Forgive me if I don't roll out the barrel. As I see it, there are four key problems.

So the US budget deficit is contracting because government consumption is falling? It is really just an accounting illusion. Financial repression is still the order of the day.

If I only had a dollar for every time I've read the US is safe from recession as "the yield curve is positively sloped."

Investing during bear markets is like dynamite fishing. We're starting to see fairly large fish float to the surface.