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Much of the new push for industrial policy in the US and Europe is motivated by the perceived Chinese "threat". But economic considerations suggest this is the wrong focus.

The global economy will be shaped in the years ahead by three trends. While COVID-19 reinforces and entrenches them, it is not the primary force driving them. All three predate the pandemic. The fate of the world economy hinges not on what the virus does, but on how we choose to respond.