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Every day we are inundated with bold macroeconomic and geopolitical prognostications about the year ahead. While investors need to be mindful of the potential risks posed by different stress events, they should largely ignore macro and geopolitical predictions when it comes to selecting companies to invest in. Indeed, almost every consensus forecast for 2023 turned out to be wrong, from a resurgent China to Tech valuations being pummelled by the most aggressive rate hiking cycle in a century. A disciplined, bottom-up approach that guards against “black swan” events is a surer path to success. History does however provide a powerful guide for the performance of investment styles, and Quality, Sentiment, and Value are well poised.

Decarbonisation of the economy is the most important thematic of the next 30 years. The future ain't what it used to be! Investors can achieve net-zero portfolios without compromising returns or increasing risk by using "green shorts".

David Allen | 0.50 CE