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For those who viewed negative interest rates as a bridge too far for central banks, it might be time to think again. Emergency implementation of deeply negative interest rates would not solve all of today's problems. But it would be a start.

Even with all-out efforts by central banks and fiscal authorities to soften the blow, a deep economic slump and financial crisis are unavoidable. The key questions now are how bad the COVID-19 recession will be and how long it will last.

With interest rates on government debt at multi-decade lows, a number of leading economists have argued that almost every advanced economy can allow debt to drift up toward Japanese levels. This ignores what can go wrong.

If a final US-China trade deal prevents China from gaining greater monetary-policy autonomy, it could create major problems when the next big Asian recession hits.

The arguments of supporters of Modern Monetary Theory have a grain of truth, but also rest on some fundamental misconceptions and have unpredictable, potentially serious consequences.

Over the course of this year and next, the biggest economic risks will emerge in those areas where investors think recent patterns are unlikely to change.

When China finally has its inevitable growth recession, the world is likely to discover that China's economy matters even more than most people thought.

In a presidency that has shown little regard for conventional institutional norms, how can one explain Donald Trump's completely reasonable appointments to the Federal Reserve Board?

Neither policymakers nor markets should bet on the past decade's slow growth carrying over to the next. The best bet is that AI and other technologies will have a much larger impact on growth than up to now.

Headlines seeming to portend political instability and chaos have not prevented stock markets from soaring. What gives?

With the appointment of Jerome Powell as the next Chair of the United States Federal Reserve Board, Donald Trump has made perhaps the most important single decision of his presidency.

The US cannot "win" a trade war with China, and any victory will be Pyrrhic - leading to massive price increases in the low-cost stores on which many Americans rely.

Markets are fixated on how high the Fed will raise interest rates in the next 12 months. This is dangerously shortsighted. The real concern should be how far it could cut rates in the next deep recession.

One of the biggest economic surprises of 2015 is that the stunning drop in global oil prices did not deliver a bigger boost to global growth. The good news is that the welcome but modest effect on growth probably will not die out in 2016.

How should one understand the disconnect between new highs reached by global equity indices and new depths plumbed by real interest rates worldwide?

There are good reasons why central bankers receive so much media. But the bubble around their pronouncements grossly exaggerates their economic significance.

Modern central banking has worked wonders to bring down inflation. Today, high inflation seems remote. But inflation is only dormant, it is certainly not dead.

Moving to a twenty-first-century currency system would make it far simpler to move to a twenty-first-century central-banking regime as well.

Will each future generation continue to enjoy a better quality of life than its immediate predecessor? The likely answer is yes, but the risks seem higher.