It seems that the markets are indicating that we have entered a period in which jewels (gold) will outperform tools (stocks). Try as we may (we are no gold-bugs), we struggle to find reasons to discard the market's message.

The single most important macro-trend of our time is China's attempt to transform itself from a typical (if large) emerging market into an empire. The interesting bit for investors is that growing empires usually breed strong currencies.

We should acknowledge the Greek crisis for what it is - the death-knell for the European dream of empire. The growing reality is the return of borders, national preferences, and opt-outs. The euro has become a structurally weak currency and European bonds are likely to underperform those of other, nonshrinking, empires.

Despite all the negative ink that's been spilt over the recent collapse in Chinese equities, we continue to believe that a year from now there will be more marginal buyers of Chinese equities than today.

To maintain "no taxation, no representation" deal with its people, China's leadership seems to be going down a path that'd see index funds as forced buyers of Chinese equities.

Fundamentally, there are three ways to make money in financial markets. A well structured, well-diversified portfolio should encompass all three, across all geographies.

Since the 1980s, oil prices have fallen 50% or more over six months just twice - including last year. Was oil a bubble which has now imploded? Or is oil set to bounce back?

Only the most die-hard peak-oil proponents, or other gold-bugs, will fail to acknowledge that the commodity bubble has burst. Is it a positive, or negative, for financial markets?

By calling an election now, Abe is betting that a further big fall in the yen - and a consequent further rise in the Nikkei - is no certainty. He may well be right.

Markets are pricing in expectations that the ECB will have to be very aggressive next week if it is to turn back the tide of European deceleration. It's reminiscent of October 1987.

If you believe the US State Department has the Crimean situation under control, plan for a bullish scenario for risk assets. Plan for the opposite, if you believe Putin will prevail.

Gold's disappointing performance has been a topic of discussion at GaveKal. Most of us come down on the side of one of four possible explanations.

China needs to embrace a stronger RMB - can it become the EM's Duetsche Mark - while Japan has embarked on a structurally weak yen, with profound implications for the rest of the world.

Often with investing, simple ideas work best. Last decade, the name of the game was to front run Chinese investors. For the next decade, the story is different, and even simpler.