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This crisis may morph over time. The second quarter of 2020 looked like an I, free fall. Quarter three looked like a V, as any rebound from very low levels of activity initially does. My baseline scenario is an anaemic U-shaped recovery.

In February, I warned any number of foreseeable crises - "white swans" - including Covid-19, could trigger a massive global disturbance in 2020. Many are now in play. Why are financial markets ignoring these risks?

Ten risks, already looming large before COVID-19 struck, now threaten to fuel a perfect storm that sweeps the entire global economy into a decade of despair.

The disconnect between financial markets and the real economy is becoming more pronounced, as investors focus on the attenuation of some short-term tail risks, and on central banks' return to monetary-policy easing.

It is only a matter of time before some shock triggers a new recession. Because policymakers will be pressured to do something, "crazy" policy responses will become a foregone conclusion.

There are several geo-economic games of chicken playing out. In each case, failure to compromise would lead to a collision, most likely followed by a global recession and financial crisis.

There are three negative supply shocks that could trigger a global recession by 2020. None of them are amenable to the traditional tools of countercyclical macroeconomic policy.

Crypto land has become an unregulated casino where unchecked criminality runs riot. It is high time that law-enforcement agencies stepped in.

The US Federal Reserve surprised markets recently with a large and unexpected policy change. The new normal will be a US policy rate close to or just below 3%.

There may be enough positive factors to make this a relatively decent - albeit mediocre - year for the global economy. But a global growth-stall and sharp market downturn could come in 2020.

As we mark the decennial of the collapse of Lehman Brothers, there are still ongoing debates about the causes and consequences of the GFC. By 2020, conditions will be ripe for a new financial crisis.

For the first time in a decade, the biggest risks are now stagflationary (slower growth and higher inflation). It would seem that the current risk-off era is here to stay.

It is high time to end the hype. Bitcoin is a slow, energy-inefficient dinosaur. Most of the coins are little different from railway stocks in the 1840s, which went bust when that bubble – like most bubbles – burst.

You know it's time to worry when the conservative Republican chairman of the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations warns openly that Trump could start World War III.

Since mid 2016, the global economy has been in a period of moderate expansion - yet inflation has not picked up. Why?

After six months, we can more confidently assess the prospects for the US economy under Trump's administration. Like his presidency, paradoxes abound.

In the next year, a more robust and persistent global recovery will depend largely on whether policymakers avoid mistakes that could derail it.

Despite proliferating geopolitical risks, global financial markets have reached new heights. Markets have trouble pricing "black swan" events, the "unknown unknowns" that are unlikely, but extremely costly.

Central banks have been driven to adopt increasingly unconventional monetary policies - yet most economies are far from where they need to be. We should begin activating fiscal policy now.

The EU's post-Brexit show of unity calmed fears that the EU or the eurozone would fall apart in short order. But the risk of European and global volatility may have been only briefly postponed.