In a wide-ranging speech last week, Janel Yellen reversed the terms of US engagement with China, prioritising national-security concerns over economic considerations.

America, China, and Russia are collectively sleepwalking down a path of conflict escalation, carrying high-octane fuel that could be ignited all too easily. Just like 1914.

The outcome of the 20th Party Congress underscores an important distinction between economic growth "with Chinese characteristics" as it has long been described, and a very different strain of development with Xi Jinping characteristics.

The predictable downward revision cycle for the global economic outlook has officially begun. The revision by the IMF, largely in response to the war in Ukraine, is a big one...

I have long been haunted by the inflation of the 1970s. Fifty years ago, I was witness to the birth of the Great Inflation as a Fed insider. This isn't the 1970s, but today's Fed waxes far too confidently about inflation.

I should have known better when I came off the bench as a retired forecaster last summer and penned a piece with the now memorable title of "America's Coming Double Dip".

As financial markets celebrate the coming vaccine-led boom, the confluence of epidemiological and political aftershocks has pushed us back into a quagmire of heightened economic vulnerability.

Just as China led the world in economic recovery in the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis of 2008, it is playing a similar role today. It is a bitter pill for many to swallow.

I foresee a 35% drop in the broad dollar index over the next two to three years. Covid-19 may have spread from China, but the Covid currency shock looks like it will be made in America.

The world economy was weak, and getting weaker, when COVID-19 struck - and it has brought the Chinese economy to a virtual standstill. China's sneeze may prove to be especially vexing for long-complacent financial markets.

The world economy is operating dangerously close to stall speed. Ever-present shocks and a sharply diminished trade cushion raise serious questions about financial markets' optimistic view of global economic prospects.

Trump's administration is flailing at antiquated perceptions of the Old China that only compound the problems it claims to be addressing. Financial markets are starting to get a sense that something is awry.

There is nothing unusual in a US President having a penchant for spin. But it won't be nearly as easy to spin the consequences of the flaws with Trump's economic policy.

Yes, the days of 10% Chinese growth are over. That was inevitable. But there are five key reasons to dismiss the now-widespread diagnosis that China is ensnared in the middle-income trap.

It was inevitable. Another upturn in the US inflation cycle is at hand. The Fed is entirely correct to send the message that there is considerably more to come in its current tightening cycle.

November 2018 will mark the tenth anniversary of quantitative easing - undoubtedly the boldest policy experiment in central banking modern history. There are five key lessons learned from QE.

Trump and team continue to flaunt virtually every principle of conventional economics. A trade war may well be an early skirmish in a much tougher battle, during which economics ultimately trumps Trump.

President Xi Jinping's political report, delivered on the opening day of China's latest Communist Party congress, was a high-impact event. Three conclusions from Xi's address are particularly important.

The Fed will not achieve balance-sheet normalisation until 2022-2023 at earliest. With more than $6tn of excess liquidity still sloshing around global financial markets, that's asking for trouble.

US President Donald Trump has once again raised the possibility of a trade conflict with China. Getting tough on China while ignoring the consequences could be a blunder of epic proportions.