110 results found

In the 1950s, Markowitz showed that low or negative correlation is the secret sauce that makes diversification work. While his maths stacks up, the way it is often abused, does not.

Harry Markowitz called diversification "the only free lunch in finance". But it can’t be taken for granted as not all diversification is good. The answer will often lie with good rules of thumb.

Tim Farrelly | 1 comment | 0.25 CE

If US bond rates go higher from here, it is likely to be in response to something we don't yet know, rather than what is already out there. Markets are not nearly as dumb as many suggest.

There is quite a bit happening on the geopolitical front right now to concern markets. With all this uncertainty, the best thing to do is nothing. Sit tight and enjoy the show.

Quantitative Tightening is jangling the nerves of investors around the world. It's unprecedented and so no-one knows for sure exactly how it will play out. But all the evidence points to QT being a non-event.

That's the view that Guy Debelle, Deputy Governor of the RBA, outlined in a recent speech. It's a timely warning - but what do we do with it? I think it depends on your investment time horizon, as do so many investment decisions.

The peddlers of the Bond-cano narrative give very different recommendations. Even if we buy the story, it's just not clear what to do - all of which suggests that it is just a wonderful narrative.

Too much of our communication with end investors is either irrelevant, unintelligible to the average investor - or worse still, both.

Tim Farrelly | 0.50 CE

Global economies and central banks are changing gear. Should you be switching gear with your portfolios? To answer, you need a laser focus on what is important for you.

Tim Farrelly | 0.25 CE

It is the time of the year when those in the forecasting business like to lay out our expectations for the coming year. Here are mine...

"If it is earned here, it should be taxed here" is the title of the ad about laws on multinationals transferring profits offshore. What is interesting is the closing claim in the ad.

The 2017 mid-year SPIVA report on fund manager performance came out recently. And, while we can expect to see the media dwell on the negatives, there are some big positives in the data.

Despite all the talk, the fact that Australian banks loan books are heavily concentrated in low risk residential mortgages should be a source of comfort, not fear.

Simply observing the concentration inherent in the index and reducing Australian Equity weights is throwing the proverbial baby out with the bathwater. It’s nuts and you can clearly see it’s nuts.

Where can practitioners take on the world’s best investors and win? Actually, in quite a lot of places.

In a world where 0.6%pa is top quartile, winning is difficult and losing is easy. There are big gains to be made in surprising places. Even 1%pa adds up to a huge difference over time.

Tim Farrelly | 0.50 CE

The head of ASIC says that hybrids are a ridiculous investment for retail investors. Are they? Yes and no.

Yes, rates are unusually low. But to describe that as unnatural shows a lack of understanding about how the world works and a refusal to accept that maybe the world has changed.

After the ratings failures of CDOs and other complex instruments in the GFC, many dismiss the work of the ratings agencies. But far from being hopeless, they do a wonderful job of assessing companies.

The market is expecting a big pick-up in earnings from Trump's business friendly tax cuts, deregulation and an infrastructure spending boom. But will it be enough?