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When just about every asset price trends upwards, and episodic falls in market prices are quickly reversed, risk management is unrewarded. But the world has changed and portfolio risk management is now critical.

Those calling for the cash rate to be raised to a more appropriate "real" level or to match the Fed Funds rate to avoid "imported inflation" should be duly ignored.

Focussing on what we know about the world we live in and figuring out what it might mean for investing is much less glamourous and newsworthy than the prediction game, but it's potentially more rewarding.

The three biggest crashes in US stock markets occurred in October and there have been other significant October falls over the past 100 years. While common sense suggests the "October Effect" is nothing more than market folklore, should it be ignored?