41 results found

Contrary to popular belief, western living standards have not declined in recent decades. Rather, government statistics failed to capture a key element of real GPD growth.

Many worry that "the new normal" may be over, that the peak of the bond market has been reached, and so forth. We agree in part with this new view and offer some pointers to help navigate the bond market shoals ahead.

The belief that innovative and extremely easy monetary policy on its own would restore a suitable level of economic growth and inflation was wrong, both in theory and in practice.

The reality is that Brexit will hurt everyone involved more than was admitted during the campaign. Investors should expect heightened volatility, not only of stocks, but even of government bonds.

I awoke to read three pieces in the papers. These items contained news that would have surprised nobody, had global economic and market commentators been doing their job of properly interpreting the news.

The consensus view that falling oil prices and a China slowdown are the main drivers of slowing world growth is only half the true story of why global growth is 3% rather than 6% as it was - and could and should be again.

Today's slowdown is truly global, with economies everywhere contributing to it. We witness "disappointing" growth, quarter by quarter, year after year. The consensus pays too much attention to China as the cause. So what really is behind all this?

This week's market correction is long overdue. It is also not over because the true underlying problems are much more serious than the commonly cited causes. And, at last, markets are teaching Xi and Li who in fact is the boss.

Indexing could be as problematic during the next few decades as it has been successful in the past few. This heightens the appeal of active management for those brave enough to pursue it.

Woody Brock | 0.50 CE

China is a glass both half full and half empty. It will continue to grow and become a great superpower, but its future growth rate will be significantly lower than President Xi's "new normal" 6% forecast.

We are reminded daily that the US stock market has achieved record highs between 2009 and today. But the true bull market covers 35 years. What does an understanding it tell us about the future? The answer is: a lot.

Woody Brock | 1.00 CE

The world was shocked by the oil price collapse. Anuraag Shah, who made a fortune betting on a falling oil price, summarised the astonishment - "It's nuts!". Actually, it isn't.

Thomas Piketty's "Capital in the Twenty‐First Century" is certainly the economics book of the year. We have been asked numerous times to appraise his ideas.

Here are some brief thoughts on four issues that matter a lot, in our view. Two have been poorly discussed in the financial press, and the other two have been ignored completely.

Today's long period of very easy money and very low yields has distorted the financial system. This will cause unintended consequences in the near future as QE ends.

Today's long period of very easy money and very low yields has distorted the financial system. This will cause unintended consequences in the near future as QE ends.

Efficient market theory claims you can't beat the market. Seductive as it is, this claim is incorrect, as research makes clear.

What makes this cycle so different? Five reasons - two are quite conventional, three are not. With proper economic policies, good times could lie ahead for the West.

The view is that advent of Big Data is a transformative event. But there are two arguments against the importance of Big Data to the economy and advancement of social welfare.

Different (and difficult) times call for different approaches to portfolio construction - in this thought piece, Dr Woody Brock shares his views on tHiNkInG oUtSiDe ThE bOx about building portfolios...