Hundreds of thousands of words have been written about the "shock" of being Trumped. Now is an ideal time to challenge one of your portfolio construction beliefs - does geopolitics matter as a driver of the long-term outlook for markets (in a recent survey, 75% of our Members agreed it does). Or, do you believe it's in the "too hard" box (if so, see a "A Primer on Geopolitics and Investing").

This week, we've curated six views on the impact of Trump on the markets, geopolitics and investing, that we believe are relevant for those constructing multi-asset portfolios to deliver longer-term outcomes for investors. The first is from Jonathan Pain (one of the few commentators to have called a Trump victory) on what it now means for portfolios. Oliver Hartwich argues Trump won't be as bad as most think, and BCA Research's Marko Papich explains the investment implications of Trump's three key policies. Chris Joye argues Trump could be a boon for markets and portfolios, while Capital Group highlights five areas in which Trump's policies could have an economic impact. I also highly recommend this update from PIMCO's head of policy, Libby Cantrill, following her presentation at our recent Conference on why unfavourable candidates can be favourable for the US economy. As always, don't just blindly take any of these views at face value - reflect on whether you agree or disagree with the conclusions offered (and Join the Debate!).

All the best for a great weekend's continuing education - Graham

P.S. Mark your diary!  Markets Summit (14 Feb 2017) – “The Winds of Change” – will see 20+ experts debating these and other issues related to the medium-term outlook for the global economy, key markets and asset classes - and the implications for portfolios. Registration opens next week.

QUOTE OF THE WEEK...

"We're going to grow the economy. If China does 7%, they're having a terrible year. We're saying we can't do 3%, 4%. - US President-elect Donald Trump

LATEST...

Markets/Strategies
The new political and economic reality show
Trump offered entertainment, Clinton a documentary. Entertainment trumps facts every time. Now we need to re-calibrate portfolios to reflect the new fiscal and economic reality of a Trump Presidency.
Jonathan Pain, The Pain Report | Opinion

Markets
Give Trump a chance
According to most commentators, Trump's election signifies the end of the West, the international post-War framework, or the United States. I beg to differ.
Oliver Hartwich, The New Zealand Initiative | Opinion

Markets/Strategies
US election - the investment implications
Investors should make no mistake. The key pillars of Trump's campaign are de-globalisation, higher fiscal spending, and protecting entitlements at current levels. What are the investment implications?
Marko Papic, BCA Research | Opinion

Markets
Which way for US-China relations?
Trump must now choose between cooperation and confrontation as the framework for US policy toward China. His choice should be obvious.
Minghao Zhao, Charhar Institute | Opinion

Markets/Strategies
Why Trump could be good for markets
Trump is unambiguously the pure American profit maximiser. This could be the most business and financial markets friendly regime in a long time.
Christopher Joye, Smarter Money Investments | Opinion

Markets
Five ways Trump could move markets
A Trump administration means a significant shift in Washington policy for at least the next four years. There are five key areas in which Trump's policy decisions could have an economic impact.
Matt Miller, Capital Group | Opinion

The folly of planned economies
The Soviets proved planned economies don't work but our Central Bankers know better? The hubris is suffocating. Economics is not a science...
David Lunn, Lifestyle Wealth Partners | Comment

RECENTLY...

Markets
BREXIT - 1453 all over again
Over the span of history, there are few years that can genuinely be considered as years on which the history of the world turned. BREXIT may be one for the UK.
Chris Watling, Longview Economics | 1 comment | Opinion

Markets
Big danger at the lower bound
Markets are fixated on how high the Fed will raise interest rates in the next 12 months. This is dangerously shortsighted. The real concern should be how far it could cut rates in the next deep recession.
Professor Kenneth Rogoff, Harvard University | Opinion

Markets/Strategies
The middle class matters
Five years after the Euro crisis, it's not just Europe we’re concerned about from a populist perspective but also the US and UK. Why is this is a real risk for investors?
Marko Papic, BCA Research | Opinion

Investing
Use Active Share to assess management fees
Active Share can be an effective way to evaluate the appropriateness of a fund manager's fee. Low Active Share funds should come with index-fund-like fees.
Michael Kitces, Pinnacle Advisory Group | 0.50 CE | White Paper

Investing
It's time to turn to liquid alternatives
It is important to not let common misconceptions about liquid alternatives undermine their potential significant short- and long-term benefits for investors.
Sam Mann, Franklin Templeton Investments | 0.25 CE | Resources
* Rated "very good" by Conference 2016 delegates

What can a US president do to "rein in the finance sector?"
The first step is full public recognition of the dangers of which Eisenhower spoke, with ‘finance’ replacing ‘industry’. Some do. Bernie Sanders rails against the over-weaning power of Wall St...
Jack Gray, University of Technology Sydney | Comment

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