|
Hundreds of
thousands of words have been written about the
"shock" of being Trumped. Now is an ideal
time to challenge one of your portfolio construction
beliefs - does geopolitics matter as a driver of the
long-term outlook for markets (in a recent
survey, 75% of our Members agreed it does). Or, do
you believe it's in the "too hard" box (if so, see a
"A
Primer on Geopolitics and Investing").
This week,
we've curated six views on the impact of Trump on
the markets, geopolitics and investing, that we believe are relevant for
those constructing multi-asset portfolios to deliver longer-term outcomes for investors.
The first
is from Jonathan Pain (one of the few commentators
to have called a Trump victory) on what it now means
for portfolios. Oliver Hartwich argues Trump won't
be as bad as most think, and BCA Research's Marko
Papich explains the investment implications of
Trump's three key policies. Chris Joye argues Trump could be a boon for markets and portfolios,
while Capital Group highlights five areas in which
Trump's policies could have an economic impact. I
also highly recommend
this update from PIMCO's head of policy, Libby
Cantrill, following her presentation at our
recent Conference on
why unfavourable candidates can be favourable for
the US economy. As always, don't just blindly
take any of these views at face value - reflect on
whether you
agree or disagree with the conclusions offered (and
Join the Debate!).
All the best for a great weekend's continuing
education - Graham
P.S.
Mark your diary! Markets Summit (14 Feb 2017)
– “The Winds of Change” – will see 20+ experts
debating these and other issues related to the
medium-term outlook for the global economy, key
markets and asset classes - and the implications for
portfolios. Registration opens next week.
|
QUOTE OF THE WEEK... |
"We're going to grow the economy. If China does 7%,
they're having a terrible year. We're saying we
can't do 3%, 4%. - US President-elect Donald Trump
|
LATEST... |
|
Markets/Strategies
The new political and economic reality show
Trump offered entertainment, Clinton a documentary.
Entertainment trumps facts every time. Now we need
to re-calibrate portfolios to reflect the new fiscal
and economic reality of a Trump Presidency.
Jonathan Pain, The Pain Report |
Opinion
|
|
Markets
Give Trump a chance
According to
most commentators, Trump's election signifies
the end of the West, the international post-War
framework, or the United States. I beg to differ.
Oliver Hartwich, The New Zealand Initiative |
Opinion
|
|
Markets/Strategies
US election - the investment implications
Investors should make no mistake. The key pillars of
Trump's campaign are de-globalisation, higher fiscal
spending, and protecting entitlements at current
levels. What are the investment implications?
Marko Papic, BCA Research
|
Opinion
|
|
Markets
Which way for US-China relations?
Trump must now
choose between cooperation and confrontation as the
framework for US policy toward China. His choice
should be obvious.
Minghao Zhao, Charhar Institute |
Opinion
|
|
Markets/Strategies
Why Trump could be good for markets
Trump is unambiguously the pure American profit
maximiser. This could be the most business and
financial markets friendly regime in a long time.
Christopher Joye, Smarter Money Investments |
Opinion
|
|
Markets
Five ways Trump could move markets
A Trump administration means a significant shift in
Washington policy for at least the next four years.
There are five key areas in which Trump's policy
decisions could have an economic impact.
Matt
Miller, Capital Group
|
Opinion
|
|
The folly of planned economies
The Soviets proved planned economies don't work but
our Central Bankers know better? The hubris is
suffocating. Economics is not a science...
David Lunn, Lifestyle Wealth Partners
|
Comment
|
RECENTLY... |
|
Markets
BREXIT - 1453 all over again
Over the span of history, there are few years that
can genuinely be considered as years on which the
history of the world turned. BREXIT may be one for
the UK.
Chris Watling, Longview Economics |
1 comment
|
Opinion
|
|
Markets
Big danger at the lower bound
Markets are fixated on how high the Fed will raise
interest rates in the next 12 months. This is
dangerously shortsighted. The real concern should be
how far it could cut rates in the next deep
recession.
Professor
Kenneth Rogoff, Harvard University
|
Opinion
|
|
Markets/Strategies
The middle class matters
Five years after the Euro crisis, it's not just
Europe we’re concerned about from a populist
perspective but also the US and UK. Why is this is a
real risk for investors?
Marko Papic, BCA Research
|
Opinion
|
|
Investing
Use Active Share to assess management fees
Active Share can
be an effective way to evaluate the appropriateness
of a fund manager's fee. Low Active Share funds
should come with index-fund-like fees.
Michael Kitces, Pinnacle Advisory Group | 0.50 CE |
White Paper
|
|
Investing
It's time to turn to liquid alternatives
It is important to not let common
misconceptions about liquid alternatives undermine
their potential significant short- and long-term
benefits for investors.
Sam
Mann, Franklin Templeton Investments
| 0.25 CE |
Resources
* Rated
"very good" by Conference 2016
delegates
|
|
What can a US president do to "rein in the finance
sector?"
The first step is full public recognition of the
dangers of which Eisenhower spoke, with ‘finance’
replacing ‘industry’. Some do. Bernie Sanders rails
against the over-weaning power of Wall St...
Jack Gray, University of Technology Sydney
|
Comment
|
|
Keep up to
date - follow us @PortfolioForum
There's no need to wait until our weekly Forum
Fodder email to know what's new with
PortfolioConstruction Forum.
Just follow us on
Twitter to hear as soon as we release new articles
on
PortfolioConstruction.com.au and when
registration opens for our onstage programs.
|
|
Connect with me on LinkedIn
We also let my LinkedIn network know as soon as we
release new articles on
PortfolioConstruction.com.au
and when registration opens for our live programs.
If LinkedIn is more your thing than Twitter,
I'd
welcome you connecting. And of course, I'd welcome
having a offline direct conversation with you any
time.
|