In the last two weeks, very important data on both the US economy and corporate earnings have been released. These depressing data are what we had predicted and - more important - we seemed to have been right for the right reasons.

To wit:

1. Until recently , market observers were split between whether the recovery starting at year end would be a V or a U shape.

We said that such forecasts were nonsensical given that the path of the recovery will mirror the path of the Covid-19 virus, and that the behaviour of past recessions was irrelevant to the situation today. This is exactly what has happened, with the part...