A reductive macro-economic framework can manage biases

Joseph Lai  |  Ox Capital Management  |  13 October 2021  |  0.50 CE

Heuristics such as availability bias, herd instincts and extrapolation that get in the way of making the right decision at the right time are the most prevalent at the extremes. When markets are exuberant it is difficult to see - let alone act - against the hubris. When markets are down in the dumps, it is difficult to see past the misery. An example is Covid. Initially, it was a common cold (complacency), then it became a never-ending lockdown and recession (doom and gloom). Now, there is optimism after the stimulus fuelled recovery. Managing these heuristics is...

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