Forum Fodder

Forum Fodder | Friday 29 April 2022

“I don’t think China is uninvestible, but I want to keep the allocation low, given all the economic risks… The future of this decade belongs to smaller powers.” - Rockefeller International chair, Ruchir Sharma (28 April 2022)

All the best for another week’s continuing education!
Graham
P.S. Mark your Diary!
- Inv Mgmt Research College Research Symposium | AEST 10am-12.30pm Fri 03 Jun
- Finology College Finology Masterclass | AEST 10am-12.30pm Fri 15 Jul
- Portfolio Construction Forum Strategies Conference | AEST Wed 17 & Thu 18 Aug

Markets

Downside risks to global growth
The predictable downward revision cycle for the global economic outlook has officially begun. The revision by the IMF, largely in response to the war in Ukraine, is a big one…
Stephen Roach, Yale University | Read

Markets | Investing | As seen at Markets Summit 2022

Now may be the time to consider CRE debt
Record low interest rates have fundamentally changed the playbook for income investors. With banks withdrawing from the CRE debt market, other lenders have greater opportunity.
Nick Bullick, Qualitas | 0.25 CE | Watch, Listen

Markets | As seen at Markets Summit 2022

The odds aren’t favouring froth
Inflection points in inflation, interest rates and the large-scale monetary distortion of recent decades suggest the future will not repeat the same playbook as recent decades.
Martin Conlon, Schroders | 0.50 CE | Watch, Listen

Markets | As seen at Markets Summit 2022

Rising rates will bring back discipline to market valuations
Rising interest rates will create casualties and collateral damage in asset prices, but will bring back market discipline, requiring a rethink of what “defensive” even means.
Richard Quin, Bentham Asset Management | 0.50 CE | Watch, Listen

Markets | As seen at Markets Summit 2022

Growth managers that lack energy may be left out in the cold
Investors shouldn’t overlook the potential benefits of focusing on companies in the energy sector. It looks like what’s “old” will be “new” again.
Rajiv Jain, GQG Partners | 0.50 CE | Watch, Listen

Philosophy | Portfolio Construction Forum proudly supports The Wayside Chapel

Some bread crumbs
So often the answer to the question “What did you do today?” is met with the fuzzy response, “It was busy, but I can’t remember.” Building in practices to examine life for understanding are essential… otherwise we live lives of quiet desperation where we “have the experience but miss the meaning” as T.S. Eliot observed.
Jon Owen, Wayside Chapel | Read

Finology | Invitation to investment advisers

Complimentary self-assessment to benchmark your Client Care & Practice knowledge and skills
FASEA requires that financial advisers continually improve their client care and practice knowledge and skills - doing so makes obvious business sense, as well. Our new Finology Benchmarking Indices (FBI) self assessment tool helps you benchmark your investing biases, beliefs and behaviours versus peers, to further empower your “client care and practice” knowledge and skills. It’s complimentary to our members who give investment advice, while we continue to develop it.
Portfolio Construction Forum | 0.50 CE | Take the FBI self-assessment

Markets

The other side of the mountain - Protecting capital in a new economic regime
AEST 4.30pm-5.15pm, Tue 17 May 2022
Economic conditions of the last few decades have supported a long ascent in the majority of asset prices. Investors must now confront conditions alien to most, potentially leading to a more painful descent. In this webinar, Ruffer’s economist, Jamie Dannhauser will discuss the apparent “Sophie’s choice” facing central banks – recession or stagflation – and how the economy is evolving in the midst of renewed geopolitical crises. The other side of the market mountain is fraught with risk and prone to avalanches. As we pass the peak in asset prices, we’ll consider how investors can prepare portfolios for the descent.
Ruffer | 0.50 CE | Register now!

Markets

The end of an economic illusion
Inflation’s return marks a tipping point. A lot of wishful thinking will have to be abandoned, starting with the idea that governments can borrow or print as much money as they need to spray at every problem.
John Cochrane, Hoover Institution | Read

Markets

Spotlight on crypto-currencies
Despite astonishingly good returns during their limited history, there are just too many uncertainties around crypto-currencies to consider them an investable asset.
Tim Farrelly, farrelly’s Investment Strategy | Read

Markets

Inflation volatility is the biggest challenge investors face
A new market regime demands a change to the art of portfolio construction. The return of inflation volatility represents the most challenging and significant paradigm shift in decades.
Alex Lennard, Ruffer | Watch, Listen

Markets | As seen at Markets Summit 2022

Climate change requires offence and defence, just not now
In achieving longer term objectives, climate change demands both a defensive strategy to mitigate longer term risks and an offensive, tactical, approach to capitalising on opportunities.
Tom King, Nanuk Asset Management | 0.50 CE | Watch, Listen

Markets | As seen at Markets Summit 2022

The key risks to markets are hiding in plain sight
Many expect that the end of the pandemic, reopening of economies, tight labour markets and excess consumer savings will push markets higher. Proceed with caution, the best offence is a great defence.
Arvid Streimann, Magellan Financial Group | 0.50 CE | Watch, Listen

Markets

Crockpot: Property and infrastructure are inflation hedges
As inflation fears increase, we are seeing property and infrastructure fund managers saying their favourite asset class is a wonderful inflation hedge. There is more than a grain of truth here, but it is only half of the story.
Tim Farrelly, farrelly’s Investment Strategy | Read

Markets | Strategies | Rated in the top 10 sessions at Markets Summit 2022

The crowded equity trade won’t save investors
Global microcaps offer investors an unparalleled opportunity to invest in economic or market recoveries. Global microcaps’ asymmetry around large market events provides investors with a powerful offence that is a great portfolio defence.
Gino Rossi, Spheria Asset Management | 0.50 CE | Watch, Listen

Markets | Strategies | Rated in the top 10 sessions at Markets Summit 2022

The best form of defence in fixed income is a strong offence
In a world of rising yields, fixed income investors must know that what’s worked in the past might not work going forward. A braver and broader approach is required, by going on the offensive in fixed income.
Joran Laird, T. Rowe Price | 0.50 CE | Watch, Listen

Philosophy | Markets | Rated in the top 10 sessions at Markets Summit 2022

DIG in! Stakeholder capitalism will boost shareholder value
The game has changed - the 2010s is the wrong analogue for the 2020s. DIG in for an important era, when stakeholder capitalism displaces shareholder capitalism and becomes the main route to boosting shareholder value.
Tony Crescenzi, PIMCO | 0.50 CE | Watch, Listen

Markets | Rated in the top 10 sessions at Markets Summit 2022

Right now, it makes sense to sit on the credit fence
Investors may be facing a regime shift in markets that changes the traditional relationship between growth and defensive allocations. In a low conviction world, an allocation to a blend of public and private credit makes sense.
Pete Robinson, CIP Asset Management | 0.50 CE | Watch, Listen

Markets

Is the new stagflation policy-proof?
The global economy has suffered two large negative supply-side shocks - first from the Covid-19 pandemic and now from Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine - exacerbating stagflationary conditions.
Nouriel Roubini & Brunello Rosa | Read

Markets

The moral turpitude of the West
President Zelensky of Ukraine finally called a spade a spade by designating the NATO allies as cowards. The winner in all this is President Zi of China, reinforcing his view that the West is spineless and in decline.
Dr Woody Brock, SED | Read

Markets | Rated in the top 5 sessions at Markets Summit 2022

A reckoning approaches, the outlook for many markets is poor
All the indicia of a colossal equities bubble are in place. But there is a lot to own for the next five years if you are prepared to go where the crowd is thinnest, allowing you to be on offense as you defend your clients’ portfolios.
Julian McCormack, Platinum Asset Management | 0.50 CE | Watch, Listen

Markets | Rated in the top 5 sessions at Markets Summit 2022

It’s time for a new investing playbook
Investing over the next several years is going to be unlike anything we’ve experienced in decades. It’s time to go back to the drawing board to reassess the best approach to both defence and offence in a more volatile, changing market.
Ronald Temple, Lazard Asset Management | 0.50 CE | Watch, Listen

Markets | Rated in the top 5 sessions at Markets Summit 2022

The best offence is a great defence! Key takeouts
Our diverse panel of experts debated which of the high conviction propositions they heard during Markets Summit 2022 resonated most strongly, and which they disagreed with most - and the portfolio construction implications.
Alex Lennard, Chris Iggo, Daniela Jaramillo, Jacob Mitchell, Jonathan Armitage, Tim Farrrelly | 0.50 CE | Watch, Listen

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