There is more inflation complexity ahead

Mohamed El-Erian  |  Allianz  |  10 February 2023

Nearly two years into the current bout of inflation, the concept of “transitory inflation” is making a comeback as the Covid-related supply shocks dissipate. This comes at a time when it is critically important to keep an open mind about the trajectory of inflation, including by avoiding an over-simplified transitory narrative that risks obfuscating the real issues facing the US economy.

“Transitory” is a comforting notion suggesting a short-lived, reversible phenomenon. Critically, the concept assumes away the need to adjust behaviours. After all, if an inflation scare is only temporary, the ...

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