Disinflation has begun in the United States and will soon in Europe, but cutting inflation from 4% to 2% will be tougher than from 6% to 4%. Even after the near-term battle has been won, the probability of structurally higher inflation across developed economies has increased, and monetary policy responses are likely to diverge meaningfully. To navigate this transition’s VUCA, investors will need to leverage the experience of past decades while also humbly contemplating an uncertain outlook. The winning investment playbook will no longer depend solely on macro factors and asset allocation but ...