We are facing strong probabilities of recessions in the US, Australia and New Zealand. In fact, central banks will keep raising rates until unemployment starts to rise and they always go too far. The combination of recession, or even a marked economic slow down, plus much higher interest rates will see a spike in corporate failures and credit spreads. When we see credit spreads rising to around 8%, it will be the time to buy High Yield Debt.

All of the above carries an undeniable logic - but, buried in that statement, are a few unspoken assumptions that ma...