If you could predict one thing, make it equity earnings surprise

Ram Rasaratnam  |  AXA Investment Managers  |  23 August 2023  |  0.50 CE

Warren Buffett famously said, “in the short run the stock market is a voting machine but in the long run it is a weighing machine” - what gets weighed are fundamentals, specifically earnings. Brokers hire a great many analysts to write and publish detailed analysis on corporate earnings forecasts. These individual forecasts are combined to create consensus median estimates on what a company is expected to earn in 12 months’ time. It’s right to focus on earnings, but the level of delivered growth is less important than the surprise in growth, the am...

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