Thinking Differently: Hamlet and the October Effect
Wayne Fitzgibbon | CAS Market Insights | 29 September 2023
The three biggest crashes in US stock markets occurred in October 1907, October 1929, and October 1987. And there have been other significant October falls over the past 100 years - most notably in 1989 and 1997 - leading some to speculate that there is an “October Effect”.
Common sense suggests that this is nothing more than market folklore. After all, there are only 12 months in a year and there have been plenty of other months, notably March, that have seen big market declines, such as when the Dot Com bubble burst in 2000 and the Covid-related meltdown in 2020.