Peter Drucker coined this phrase almost three decades ago. But like many of his management philosophies, the core message - that trying to assess the implications of what has already happened is more fruitful than attempting to forecast what might happen - has not really sunk in.

One could argue that this is especially true when it comes to economics and financial markets. Read the financial press on any given day and you will be bombarded with forecasts of what will happen next with interest rates, corporate profits, property prices, and a wide range ...