Forum Fodder

Forum Fodder | Friday 17 November 2023

“From a historical context, I’ve heard people say, you go back to the oil embargo of 1973 – that being somewhat similar… But in my tenure, no [the geopolitical climate has not been this fragile].” - Lorenzo Simonelli, CEO of oilfield services firm Baker Hughes, in an interview with the Financial Times (13 November 2023)

All the best for another week’s continuing education!
Graham

Markets

Markets Summit 2024 “History doesn’t repeat, but it rhymes!”
AEDT 8.30am-5.45pm Wednesday 21 February 2024
When it comes to what’s driving investment markets today, parallels are often drawn with prior eras. Some commentators liken today to the 1910s when geopolitical tensions curtailed globalisation and led to WW1. Others point to sticky inflation and “hot fronts” in a Cold War between democracies and autocracies as signs that the current environment is closer to that of the 1970s. Neither is a perfect analogy. Relative to the USSR in its heyday, today China arguably poses a greater challenge to the US-led order, given China’s extensive global economic entanglement and its progress in building an anti-western coalition. And current supply chain complexity, public and private debt, and advancements in artificial intelligence are all unprecedented.
Those who ignore the mistakes of history are doomed to repeat them. By distinguishing helpful precedents from false echoes, we can better understand what lies ahead for economies and therefore investment markets, and reorientate portfolios accordingly. History doesn’t repeat, but it rhymes!
Markets Summit 2024 will help you better understand the key drivers of and outlook for the markets, and the opportunities and risks ahead on a three- to five-year view, to aid your search for return and to help them build better quality investor portfolios.
Live studio, live site, or live stream | 7-11 CE | Mark Your Diary!

Markets

The economic consequences of the Gaza war
Hamas’s barbaric massacre of Israelis on 7 October and Israel’s subsequent military campaign in Gaza to eradicate the group, has introduced four geopolitical scenarios bearing on the global economy and markets.
Nouriel Roubini, Roubini Macro Associates | Read

Markets | Investing

The best energy transition plays may seem counterintuitive
When seeking exposure to the energy transition, investors typically think of wind and solar farms, and hydrogen and battery production. But the best risk/reward energy transition opportunities can be found elsewhere.
Brian Arcese, Foord Asset Management | Read, Listen, Watch

Strategies | Markets | Investing | As seen at Strategies Conference 2023

Add growth to portfolios with global small caps
Global small caps may be rewarded by the markets going forward supported by faster expected earnings growth and compelling valuations relative to large cap equities.
Trevor Gurwich, American Century Investments | 0.50 CE | Listen, Watch

Strategies | Markets | Investing | As seen at Strategies Conference 2023

Infrastructure is the essential ingredient in any portfolio
Every day, every one of us is touched by infrastructure and, the longer we live, the more billions of us there are, and the more we need infrastructure. Demand for essential infrastructure offers opportunities for investors.
Michael Bessell, Dexus | 0.50 CE | Listen, Watch

Strategies | As seen at Strategies Conference 2023

Multi-asset portfolios must focus on risk AND return outcomes
As professionals we need to stand with our clients and share our voice to ensure risk-aware approaches part of our investment landscape.
Anthony Golowenko, MLC Asset Management | 0.50 CE | Listen, Watch

Finology | Philosophy

Behavioural Finance: Investment decision-making short course
Led by behavioural finance expert, Herman Brodie, the Behavioural Finance - Investment Decision-Making course will help you identify, analyse and evaluate the principal human preferences that influence decision-making in situations of uncertainty, so you can recognise and identify these preferences in others, to improve investment decision-making.
Herman Brodie | 8.00 CE | Enrol

Markets

The stunning resilience of emerging markets
As finance ministers and central bankers convened in Marrakesh for the IMF and World Bank annual meetings in mid October, what surprised veteran analysts the most was the expected calamity that hasn’t happened - an emerging-market debt crisis.
Kenneth Rogoff, Harvard University | Read

Strategies | Markets | Finology | Philosophy

Thinking Differently: Rethinking risk management
When just about every asset price trends upwards, and episodic falls in market prices are quickly reversed, risk management is unrewarded. But the world has changed and portfolio risk management is now critical.
Wayne Fitzgibbon, CAS Market Insights | Read

Markets

Private credit opportunity set is growing
As risks related to over-indebted governments, the Russia-Ukraine war and Brexit fuel instability in Europe, the opportunity set for private credit investors is growing.
Fabian Chrobog, NorthWall Capital | Listen, Watch

Strategies | Markets | As seen at Strategies Conference 2023

Valuation driven investors can’t ignore EM equities any more
Today, many of the leading companies servicing emerging market economies have superior earnings growth to developed market peers, with many trading even cheaper than at the height of the Covid market turmoil.
Ross Cameron, Northcape Capital | 0.50 CE | Listen, Watch

Strategies| Investing | As seen at Strategies Conference 2023

Passive will beat active in private markets too!
Private Equity pooled returns have been attractive while also less volatile than investing in a single fund or fund-of-funds. Enabling investors to “buy the private market” would complement portfolios just like in public markets.
Edward Talmor-Gera, NewVest | 0.25 CE | Listen, Watch

Strategies | Markets | As seen at Strategies Conference 2023

If you do anything, include private debt in portfolios
The unique characteristics of private debt make it ideal for any portfolio, fitting in either the defensive or growth component of a portfolio – or even both at the same time.
Andrew-Lockhart, Metrics Credit Partners | 0.50 CE | Listen, Watch

Markets

The five main drivers of global economic uncertainty
Even in the highly unlikely event that the current geopolitical situation improves rapidly, a deep sense of uncertainty will remain, driven by five economic and financial factors.
Mohamed El-Erian | Read

Markets

Thinking Differently: Beyond the razzle dazzle
Those calling for the cash rate to be raised to a more appropriate “real” level or to match the Fed Funds rate to avoid “imported inflation” should be duly ignored.
Wayne Fitzgibbon, CAS Market Insights | Read

Strategies | Markets | As seen at Strategies Conference 2023

In 2023, every business is an AI business
We are living in the middle of a major societal shift towards not just the use of, but the reliance, dependence and advancement of our lives being built on technology that seeks to emulate us, mimic us and envelope us.
Grant McCarthy, Tidal Ventures & Shane Baldacchino, Microsoft | 0.25 CE | Listen, Watch

Strategies | Markets | As seen at Strategies Conference 2023

If you do anything, invest in companies that embrace AI
AI has been described as important a lever for detaching economic growth from population growth as the steam engine. Companies that don’t use AI to remake their business simply don’t have a place in today’s portfolios.
Alex Pollak, Loftus Peak | 0.25 CE | Listen, Watch

Strategies | Investing | As seen at Strategies Conference 2023

Investing Roundtable - You can do anything, just not everything
The Investing Roundtable explored key challenges and opportunities that practitioners should be thinking about when building quality multi-asset, multi-manager portfolios - allocations to global small cap equities, returns-based fund style analysis, and optimised portfolio design.
Bronwen Moncrieff, John Laver, Michael Furey, Naomi Finnigan | 0.75 CE | Listen, Watch

Markets | Investing

Research Review: Wallstreet bets - then and now
The WallStreetBets phenomenon - and the sensational short squeeze of Gamestop in 2021 in particular - demonstrated the potentially dramatic influence of collective retail behaviour on financial markets.
Rob Hamshar, Portfolio Construction Forum | 2.00 CE | Read

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Forum CIMA CE Library - over 150 CE hours
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Earn CIMA CE hours

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