Forum Fodder

Forum Fodder | Friday 10 May 2024

“The payoff [from artificial intelligence], while it’s incrementally coming in by the day, the big payoff might be four to five years from now. So AI might be a little overhyped now, but under-hyped long term." - Hedge fund manager Stanley Druckenmiller (07 May 2024)

All the best for another week’s continuing education!
Graham
P.S. Mark your diary!. Join us for the 23rd annual Portfolio Construction Forum Strategies Summit 2024 (Wednesday & Thursday 21-22 August), at our live studio in Sydney, as part of a group at a live site, or via live stream. Early Bird registration opens soon! Meanwhile, watch the highlights from past programs

Markets

What’s driving the global gold rush?
Gold has returned to the international monetary system. Over 50 years ago, US President Richard Nixon “closed the gold window”. But now, fiat money is being challenged and the price of gold has reached all-time highs.
Harold James, Princeton University | Read

Strategies | Markets | Investing | As seen at Markets Summit 2024

History doesn’t repeat, but it rhymes! Key takeouts
Our diverse panel of experts debated the high conviction propositions they heard during Markets Summit 2024 and the portfolio construction implications.
Vihari Ross, Marisa Broome, Adam Bowe, Dan Farmer, Tim Farrelly | 0.75 CE | Listen, Watch

Markets | As seen at Markets Summit 2024

GEM is offering one of the biggest opportunities in a lifetime
Equity valuations are at attractive levels for most emerging markets but the lack of interest in emerging markets in general has led to extraordinarily attractive valuations.
Joseph Lai, Ox Capital Management | 0.50 CE | Listen, Watch

Markets | Investing | As seen at Markets Summit 2024

Ignore macro forecasts to enhance global equity returns
While investors need to be mindful of the potential risks posed by different stress events, they should largely ignore macro and geopolitical predictions when it comes to selecting companies to invest in.
David Allen, Plato Investment Management | 0.50 CE | Listen, Watch

Finology

Research Review: Reconsidering loss aversion
The idea that individuals are more sensitive to losses than to equivalent gains is critical in investment decision-making. Two recent papers highlight that loss aversion/tolerance is a more nuanced phenomenon than is commonly recognised.
Rob Hamshar, Portfolio Construction Forum | 1.50 CE | Read

Finology | Philosophy

On The Hunt: Ethical behaviour profiling
On the Hunt is a monthly lecture series focused on the human factors in investment portfolio construction, including the ethical implications. It will help you better identify and understand how investing biases, beliefs and behaviours impact portfolio construction practices - and therefore, investment outcomes - to help you build better quality investor portfolios.
Katherine Hunt, Ardentura Consulting | 1.00 CE (Ethics) | Read, Watch

Finology | Philosophy

Behavioural Finance: Investment decision-making short course
Led by behavioural finance expert, Herman Brodie, this online, on-demand course completed at your own pace will help you identify, analyse and evaluate the principal human preferences that influence decision-making in situations of uncertainty, so you can recognise and identify these preferences in others, to improve investment decision-making.
Herman Brodie | 8.00 CE | Enrol

Markets

Navigating major transitions in an uncertain economy
Three issues are key to deciphering what 2024-25 will hold for the US economy, which is now the sole major engine of global growth. I will stick my neck out and offer some illustrative probabilities.
Mohamed El-Erian | Read

Markets | As seen at Markets Summit 2024

The return of history is reshaping investment markets
Three investment experts offer and debate their high conviction thesis on a long-term, deep rooted structural change impacting markets over a decade or more.
Oliver Hartwich, Chris Rogers, Vikram Mansharamani | 1.00 CE | Listen, Watch

Markets | As seen at Markets Summit 2024

The acute need for housing supports private credit returns
Australia’s residential vacancy rate is at a record low and net overseas migration at a record high. But, the banks can no longer participate in the market like they used to, providing greater opportunity for real estate private credit.
Mark Power, Qualitas | 0.50 CE | Read, Listen, Watch

Markets | As seen at Markets Summit 2024

Bonds matter, no matter hard or soft landing
This economic cycle will mean revert to a traditional business cycle - a cycle that may not exactly repeat but will rhyme with prior inflation cycles. Opportunities exist in global bonds in 2024 and 2025 no matter hard or soft landing outcomes.
Jack McIntyre, Brandywine Global | 0.50 CE | Listen, Watch

Markets | Investing

Research Review: Wider implications of the swing to passive investing
Three articles provide us with insights into the impact that the growth in passive management has had on the performance of active managers; the risks taken by active managers and the general efficiency of markets; and, the behaviour of markets.
Ron Bird | Australian National University & Portfolio Construction Forum | 2.00 CE | Read

Markets

Can Europe’s economy exceed expectations in 2024?
After 15 years of economic upheavals, from the European debt crisis to the Covid-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the European economy appears set to underperform in 2024. But are appearances deceiving?
Kenneth Rogoff, Harvard University | Read

Markets | Strategies | As seen at Markets Summit 2024

History is echoing – this is a year to be tactical
With heightened global geopolitical risks, reduced fiscal support from governments, a deflating Chinese property bubble, and an ongoing US commercial real estate crisis, 2024 is a year for investors to be nimble and tactical.
Jonathan Pain, The Pain Report | 0.50 CE | Listen, Watch

Markets | As seen at Markets Summit 2024

Companies are doomed to repeat past disruption failings
There’s no such thing as “normal” for supply chains. The challenges for 2024 and 2025 that echo the past include logistics network disruptions, geopolitical risks and the cash costs of environmental policies - which make investing in supply chain security more important than ever.
Chris Rogers, S&P Global Market Intelligence | 0.25 CE | Listen, Watch

Markets | Investing | As seen at Markets Summit 2024

Don’t be anchored by the ‘dinosaur seven’, growth is in Ex 20
Investors should explore opportunities beyond the ASX20, focusing instead on the Ex-20 index which provides exposure to Australia’s future rather than its past.
Dion Hershan, Yarra Capital Management | 0.50 CE | Listen, Watch

Markets | Finology

Research Review: Great expectations
The future state of the economy and markets depends, in part, on what people expect it will be. Understanding people’s expectations, and how and why they form and revise them, has important implications for portfolio construction practice.
Rob Hamshar, Portfolio Construction Forum | 1.50 CE | Read

Strategies | Markets

Short-term investing is dangerous
Wow that is confronting. To para-phrase - by the time you know something is bad it has been factored in and over-sold, and hence you should buy. That is probably very difficult to do. I take solace in my hypothesis that long-term investing is very different to short-term investing.
Mark Hayden, Hayden Bourne Financial Services | Read

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Forum CIMA CE Library - over 150 CE hours
This subset of our full CE Library features just those learning resources that are accredited for CIMA CE hours, so CIMA certificants can more easily find learning resources to meet their recertification obligation (at the same time as meeting the CE/CPD requirements of other governing bodies e.g. ASIC, APRA, Legislated (AU)/FAAA, FMA etc).
Earn CIMA CE hours

Connect with us on LinkedIn
We let my LinkedIn network know as soon as we release new articles on portfolioconstructionforum.edu.au and when registration opens for our face-to-face CE programs. And of course, I’d welcome having an offline direct conversation with you any time.