Forum Fodder

Forum Fodder | 13 December 2024

Maybe Trump will defy the sceptics, and prove economic orthodoxy wrong. Indeed, the markets are already acting as if this were the case — that Trumponomics is set to deliver the holy grail of high growth, low inflation and some budget control. - Gillian Tett, Financial Times columnist (13 December 2024)

All the best for another week’s continuing education!
Graham
P.S. Stand for More!  Enrol by 31 December for the 2025 CIMA program.
Certified Investment Management Analyst^® (CIMA^®) certification is the peak, international technical portfolio construction certification program designed for investment management analysts - that is, those involved in any aspect of constructing multi-asset, multi-manager portfolios. Find out more and enrol.

Markets

The eight headwinds threatening global growth in 2025
Looking ahead, eight risks to global GDP growth stand out. Investors will need to rethink their investment and allocation strategies to navigate an era defined by uncertainty and uneven growth.
Dambisa Moyo, Versaca Investments | Read

Strategies | Markets

What we know, what we don’t know, and what to do - Trump 2.0
In a world where Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity, and Ambiguity are ever-present and ever-changing, the act of investing is about assessing probabilities and payoffs, not trying to predict what will happen.
Wayne Fitzgibbon, Thinking Differently | 0.25 CE | Read

Markets | Investing

Green Bonds should outperform the conventional bonds market
Green bonds have outperformed conventional bonds for five of the last seven years and their potential for positive outcomes during central banks cutting cycles make them a compelling investment.
Rui Li, AXA Investment Managers | Watch, Listen

Strategies | Markets

Asset Class Outlook Roundtable 2024/25
Our diverse panel of asset class experts discussed and clarified the implications of four economic scenarios for the medium-term (three-year) outlook for key asset classes, and then the Investment Committee (Summit delegates) voted to determine probabilities for each of the scenarios as inputs to the Asset Allocation Roundtable.
J Ramsay, E Sharef, G McNamara, I Poole, RRasaratnam | 1.00 CE | Watch, Listen

Strategies | Markets

Asset Class Outlook Roundtable Update (Nov 2024)
At Strategies Summit in August 2024, a diverse panel of asset class experts debated the implications of four medium-term scenarios. Now, practitioners need to re-visit their medium-term outlook for investment markets.
Jonathan Ramsay, InvestSense | Watch, Listen

Strategies | Markets | Investing | Philosophy

Short Course: Mastering private debt investing
Examining the unique characteristics that make private debt a compelling investment. Private debt has grown in popularity as an alternative source of debt financing, with the asset class tripling in size since 2008. Curated and produced by Portfolio Construction Forum, and led by private debt investing subject matter expert, Andrew Lockhart, this self-paced, two-hour online short course equips you with the expertise to navigate private debt investment confidently across diverse market conditions.
Metrics & Portfolio Construction Forum | 2.00 CE | Enrol

Finology | Philosophy | ** Premium **

On The Hunt: Ethical behaviour profiling
On the Hunt is a monthly lecture series focused on the human factors in investment portfolio construction, including the ethical implications. It will help you better identify and understand how investing biases, beliefs and behaviours impact portfolio construction practices - and therefore, investment outcomes - to help you build better quality investor portfolios.
Katherine Hunt, Ardentura Consulting | 1.00 CE (Ethics) | Premium | Enrol

Finology | Philosophy | ** Premium **

Behavioural Finance: Investment decision-making short course
Led by behavioural finance expert, Herman Brodie, this online, on-demand course completed at your own pace will help you identify, analyse and evaluate the principal human preferences that influence decision-making in situations of uncertainty, so you can recognise and identify these preferences in others, to improve investment decision-making.
Herman Brodie | 8.00 CE (incl 1.00 ethics) | Enrol

Markets

Elon Musk’s $2tn fiscal fantasy
Supporters often say that a businessman like Trump or Musk will know how to put America’s fiscal house in order. But the smart money says they have no idea what they are doing.
Jeffrey Frankel, Harvard University | Read

Markets

Once again, it was the economy, stupid
The economy played a critical role in the 2024 presidential race, creating the conditions not only for Donald Trump to trounce Kamala Harris and for the Republicans to gain control of the Senate and House but possibly also for a counter-elite to usher in a new power structure.
Mohamed El-Erian | Read

Markets

Brushing off the playbook - supply chains after the US election
History is rhyming again. With the return of President-elect Donald Trump and a Republican Congress, the baseline supply chain policies that investors will have to deal with look a lot like those applied in the 2016 to 2020 period.
Chris Rogers, S&P Global | 0.50 CE | Read

Strategies | Philosophy | As seen at Strategies Summit 2024

One account should not rule them all
The widespread adoption of managed account solutions has shown a seismic shift in most investment advisers believing it is too risky to entrust just one active investment manager with building a diversified portfolio for clients.
Chris Hestelow, Allan Gray Australia | 0.25 CE | Watch, Listen, Read

Strategies | Markets | Investing | As seen at Strategies Summit 2024

Emerging markets have many more than 7 magnificent companies
Within emerging market economies, there are many companies that have developed to challenge the world’s best businesses. Valuations are attractive and do not reflect the underlying value of the business.
John Stavliotis, Antipodes Partners | 0.50 CE | Watch, Listen

Investing

Research Review: Forecasting fund performance
Research over the last 50+ years has questioned the ability of active fund managers to add value consistently over time. These two papers offer new methods to improve our ability to pick future winners and losers.
Ron Bird, ANU & Portfolio Construction Forum | 1.50 CE | Read

Markets

Is capitalism really the cause of global inequality?
In 2014, Thomas Piketty’s book, Capital in the Twenty-First Century, reshaped the inequality debate. However his central argument – that capitalism inevitably leads to growing inequality – falls apart when looking at cross-country inequality.
Kenneth Rogoff, Harvard University | Read

Strategies | Markets | Philosophy | As seen at Strategies Summit 2024

Most people don’t understand the drivers of real estate returns
Did you ever wonder why so many pundits got their Australian house price forecasts so wrong? Real estate pricing is not driven by interest rates, population growth, or tax regimes.
Chris Bedingfield, Quay Global Investors | 0.50 CE | Watch, Listen

Strategies | Markets | Investing | As seen at Strategies Summit 2024

‘Whole’ portfolios need both public AND private debt
Higher rates and structural changes, such as tighter regulation, are reshaping both public and private debt markets, requiring investors to take a multi-sector and relative value approach across both.
Christian Stracke, PIMCO | 0.50 CE | Watch, Listen

Strategies | Markets | Investing | Philosophy | As seen at Strategies Summit 2024

60/40 should not be what it used to be
The market growth and quality of private market alternatives provides investors an opportunity to meaningfully enhance 60/40 with higher returns and less volatility.
Frank Danieli, MA Financial Group | 0.50 CE | Watch, Listen

Finology

Research Review: Ethical blindness
Ethical blindness is one answer to the question “Why do good people do bad things?” Together, these two papers strongly reinforce the idea that ethical practice requires that we regularly hit the brakes and check our ethical blind spots.
Rob Hamshar, Portfolio Construction Forum | 2.00 CE (Ethics) | Read

Markets | Finology | Philosophy

A Language of Its Own!
Thanks, Wayne. A great response. I have added to my reading list today and look forward to making some more connections with “Narrative Economics”…
Dacian Moses, Waterfall Way Associates | Read

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