Contrary to popular belief, western living standards have not declined in recent decades. Rather, government statistics failed to capture a key element of real GPD growth.
The tectonic plates of the political and economic landscape are rupturing. Brace yourselves for a wild and entertaining ride...
US-China relations under President Donald Trump will be turbulent. This will be testing for an economically interdependent region.
Applying discipline, fact and data to the assembly of a portfolio leads to investment opportunities overlooked by many who pursue their 'feelings' rather than data.
Markets have run hard in recent months on speculative exuberance. However, the critical question is will President Trump prove to be a tailwind, or a headwind for the global economy?
The tectonic plates of the political and economic landscape are rupturing. Brace yourselves for a wild and entertaining ride...
Bond-sensitive stocks now form a record 60% of the ASX's market cap. Australian equity investors should hold a greater proportion in real-asset stocks and reduce exposure to artificially inflated financial stocks.
US-China relations under President Donald Trump will be turbulent. This will be testing for an economically interdependent region.
As 2017 began, there was (once again) an air of optimism that interest rates are about to return to normal. This optimism dismisses the significant structural headwinds that are prevalent.
When positioning a multi-asset, portfolio for the medium-term, there are four fundamental decisions we must make now. They are, in some cases, interdependent.
A-REITs may face headwinds over the next two years, but total returns will likely remain positive, before returning to a more normal level of 8% to 10% per annum.
Money velocity is accelerating in the US and UK, as commercial banks rediscover their appetite for risk and the two economies continue to normalise. The shift has significant implications for asset allocators.
For the foreseeable future, earnings of the infrastructure assets asset class, if defined in a disciplined manner, should continue to be reliable.
The biggest portfolio risk in 2017 will be over confidence in assigning scenario probabilities. Don't confuse the winds of change with "hot air" when it comes to portfolio construction.
There is a significant opportunity for actively managed Australian government bonds to continue to provide positive returns, while protecting against the storms of uncertainty.
Bond investors have enjoyed a multi-decade bull run in yields, fuelled by unsustainable post-GFC stimulus, but "the times they are a-changing".
It's time to rotate into loans!
A large number of small, high conviction positions will lead to better outcomes for portfolios compared to a small number of large, high conviction positions.
Investors should focus on asymmetric opportunities with a margin of safety and multiple ways of winning. Developed Asia and Europe offer these in abundance.
Partners Group's Charles Dallara, Lazard's Ron Temple, and Magellan's Hamish Douglass debate the winds of change sweeping through the global economy and equity markets.
Investors should question the assumption that inflation and interest rates will be "lower for longer" and instead consider that inflation could be whipped into a storm by trade, monetary and border policy.
2017 will be a year of two halves: the first - trial and error, volatility and more setbacks than successes for Trump's economic policies; the second - a shift to less confrontation, more cooperation and a win-win for the US and the world.
There is a significant opportunity for actively managed Australian government bonds to continue to provide positive returns, while protecting against the storms of uncertainty.
The biggest portfolio risk in 2017 will be over confidence in assigning scenario probabilities. Don't confuse the winds of change with "hot air" when it comes to portfolio construction.
Governments must find a way to reconcile open markets with more evenly distributed income growth, or globalisation may reverse with dire implications for risk assets.
Investors should question the assumption that inflation and interest rates will be "lower for longer" and instead consider that inflation could be whipped into a storm by trade, monetary and border policy.
2017 will present many risks and opportunities, as the winds of change sweep through the global economy and markets. Geopolitics will dominate. The only certainty for 2017 is uncertainty.
There is no subject of more importance to investors than what Donald J. Trump will do with the powers of the US presidency. There are pluses and minuses of Trumponomics.
Strong winds of change are blowing - we appear to be entering a new age of populist and economic nationalism. What does it all mean for the outlook for the markets?
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