To say a lot has changed since I spoke to you back in February at Markets Summit 2020 is an incredible understatement. Between now and Markets Summit in February 2021, I'm going to be watching three things.

Markets Summit 2020 facilitated debate on the key drivers of and outlook for the markets (on a three- to five-year view) - with particular emphasis on being alert to the high VUCA risks and opportunities ahead - to aid your search for return, and to help you build better quality investor portfolios.

In the decade ahead, ageing demographics, income inequality, market share concentration and climate change will reshape the economy, elevating the VUCA facing investors, requiring deep fundamental research to determine where best to invest.

Coronavirus represents a Black Swan event, the economic shock of which to China will reverberate around the world, thereby amplifying and exposing global economic weaknesses.

Market capitalism has survived many rotations of the political cycle over generations. But there is nothing certain or given about capitalism – and today, its future is being called into question, with growing calls to fundamentally change the system.

US/China trade tensions and the coronavirus outbreak highlight that a VUCA world abounds. But this does not change long-term trends that make emerging markets ripe for investment.

It must be something about Davos. High profile names again spoke out about the attractiveness of the equity market. But the economic cycle is not over. Boom/bust has not been banished.

After a blockbuster 2019 for bond returns, investors should moderate their return expectations while watching for VUCA events and tail risks, especially trade, Brexit and the US elections.

VUCA issues are going to increasingly drive market outcomes. Mapping out different scenarios is a must to check your biases as well as challenge your own, others' and consensus views, and generate investment ideas that help manage VUCA and target the right opportunities.

VUCA is alive and well. The environment requires a disciplined, risk-based approach that considers the direction of market risk appetite to identify the right assets at the right time.

Our diverse panel of experts debates which of the high-conviction propositions they heard during Markets Summit 2020 resonated most strongly, and which they disagreed with most, and the portfolio construction implications.

As growth becomes more scarce in developed markets, the valuation gap between emerging market equities and developed market equities will close. Within EM, Asia is the place to be investing.

Bull market longevity tells us nothing about the timing of the next bear market. Valuations are a helpful warning, but don't inform us on the timing because the trigger is normally a shock.

The current VUCA environment creates opportunities for investors to increase diversification and income in their diversified portfolios, using carefully selected, higher yielding parts of the credit market.

As the old certainties break down, the response from policy makers has been to stimulate economies. The liquidity provided is particularly evident in longer dated growth assets. In the context of the Australian market, Australian mid caps is the sweet spot.

With an ageing demographic seeking more stable outcomes, many investors have been steadily increasing allocations to infrastructure securities, to capture the attractive relative income and low volatility.

The world has checked into Hotel California – interest rates are failing to stimulate demand and monetary policy is less effective. Successful adaptation will require a re-think of traditional strategic asset allocation approaches.

Low inflationary outcomes and very low interest rates are expected to remain in place for some time. REITs have resisted the attraction of cheap credit and will continue to provide a safe haven.

Trade Wars, the US Election, Brexit 3.0, natural disasters and pandemic risks are causing fear and uncertainty in Australian equity investors. The key to capturing opportunities is to focus on what matters to long-term returns.

Practitioners should examine portfolios for slow or no growth equities, priced like bonds, whose attractions may be inundated by a wave of fiscal stimulus.

Investors are facing a "Code REDD" with reflation, election, duration and disruption all key themes. The reflation theme is favouring a rotation into more cyclical sectors, lower duration assets and lower rating bonds.

High household debt places Australia in a fragile position for further disinflation, implying that bond yields will remain lower for longer. Investors should look to accumulate bonds and ensure portfolios have an appropriate defensive allocation in anticipation of the next downturn.

The best response for investors pondering a future that is always VUCA is to ground their decisions in investment basics. In short, look for mispriced quality companies.

Investors can gain exposure to high quality real estate through global REITs, which offer exposure to sectors experiencing better growth prospects and benefiting from tech disruption.

Markets require constant accommodation to deliver status quo economic (not market) outcomes. Watch for changes in liquidity provision as forward markers of performance.

Corporate bond spreads are now tighter than they were before the GFC, yet corporate leverage is higher. Buy financials, sell corporates.

Emerging market assets and the Australian dollar present as having the greatest upside risk through the remainder of 2020-21.

Innovative firms spend their money on research and long-term investment, rather than on share buy-backs and paying out dividends. To benefit, investors must think in decades.

To fully appreciate the risks and opportunities in a high VUCA environment, portfolio construction practitioners must adopt a mindful approach in order to adapt to unexpected events.

Venture capital is evolving globally to deliver both financial outcomes and also significant and measurable social impact for investors, entrepreneurs and communities.

Traditional metrics suggest equities appear overvalued, but other factors argue against this and indicate a sustainable equity advantage.

The US-China trade deal was supposed to settle global trade uncertainty in 2020. Nothing could be further from the truth. Diversified supply chains are vital to minimising VUCA risks into the 2020s.

Many of the discussions at Davos this year revealed that global elites are struggling to respond to important economic and environmental challenges, in a highly volatile, uncertain, complex and ambiguous world.

Established in 2009, Markets Summit has gained a reputation as THE investment markets scene setter of the year. The jam-packed, one-day, face-to-face and online learning program is designed and curated by our specialist, experienced and independent team and features our Faculty of 25+ leading investment thinkers from around the world. Each offers his/her best high conviction ideas on the key drivers of and outlook for the markets (on a three- to five-year view) – with particular emphasis on being alert to high VUCA risks and opportunities ahead.