Markets spent the week attempting to price a geopolitical shock whose macro consequences remain highly uncertain. The challenge is not predicting how the conflict evolves. It is recognising how shocks like this propagate through portfolios.

Nick Schoenmaker | 0.25 CE

Markets are not panicking. They are re-learning what uncertainty costs. The key signal is not that “something happened". It is that diversification is becoming more conditional. Those constructing portfolios need to be explicit about what they own, why they own it, and what they expect it to do when escalation risk becomes live.

Nick Schoenmaker | 0.25 CE

Markets are not capitulating. They are re-calibrating. Yet beneath that surface stability, assumptions are being quietly rewritten. We are operating in a whole new world (again)!. Not because growth has collapsed. But because capital is being redeployed under a different set of structural constraints.

Nick Schoenmaker | 0.25 CE