Always amongst the top three most popular sessions at THE Investment Conference 2003 (18/19 August 2003), the researchers and asset consultants show what they've got up their sleeves for the next year, presenting their asset class models - that is, the securities they've blended together in each asset class...

"The economics are good, it’s the psychology that’s bad," said Dr. Robert Goodman, Senior Economic Advisor at Putnam in Boston U.S in his wide-ranging presentation at the recent BT Financial Group Leaders Forum 2003 in which he concluded that "a bidding war is about to break open among companies using dividends as a way to bribe back shareholders." If you missed Dr Bob's presentation, following is an edited transcript...

The diversification effect of fixed income in a portfolio has increased quite dramatically in the past three years, explained Greg Cooper, Director of Schroder Investment Management Australia at last week's Portfolio Construction Forum Researchers' Roundtable. Here are full minutes (notes plus slides) of Greg's presentation...

With the risk of war in Iraq at very high levels, Dr Don Stammer, the Portfolio Construction Forum Asset Allocation Board's independent chairman, shares his thoughts about the similarities and differences to the 1991 Gulf War, and how the global economy is affected by the threat and actuality of a war in the Middle East.

The global economy is at an inflection point that continues to produce a favourable US bond environment, according to Doug Hodge, Executive Vice-President of PIMCO, speaking at last week's FEAL February 2003 Briefing Series. The difference this time, he contends, is that US policy makers get it. They have the will to combat deflationary risks, with Japan as an example.

Nothing like a "slap in the face" from reality to send people back to basics. According to some, abandoning traditional asset allocation is the answer. So how important is asset allocation? Research shows it explains 40 per cent, 90 per cent AND 100 per cent of fund performance.

In the US, more than half of all equity funds are managed by a team, leaving a lot of solo "star" managers. US-based Bloomberg Wealth Manager recently highlighted a US study looking at which performs better - solo managers or investment teams?

Inflation has long been the scourge of Central banks everywhere, but ever since Alan Greenspan used the ‘d’ word last September, deflation has replaced inflation as the spectre troubling economic policy makers.

Fund research house ASSIRT recommends overweighting Aussie equities in 2003.

The big issues facing trustees this year will be asset allocation and equity market performance. Investor Weekly's Rebecca Hewett reports.

Last year was an annus horribilus for European investors and the ex-UK sharemarket was the worst hit global sector. Where to in 2003? IFA's Amanda Swinburn reports.

A confluence of events is occurring which should make this year the best for managed fund inflows since 1999. Factor X for markets in 2003 is unlikely to be war - history shows that the exceptional events tend to be apolitical. InvestorInfo's Greg Bright opines.

Investment markets are as hard to pick as they have been any time in the past 30 years, with both bulls and bears able to advance cogent arguments to support their positions. At the recent inaugural Portfolio Construction Forum Researchers' Roundtable, investment strategy consultant and former fund manager Jonathan Pain presented both perspectives!

Boutique managers are becoming increasingly popular, but do they add value? Yes and No, according to van Eyk Research managing director Stephen van Eyk in his presentation to the recent inaugural meeting of the Portfolio Construction Forum Researchers’ Roundtable. The following article summarises Stephen's rationale, and links to his presentation, including performance analysis of more than 30 boutique, medium and large Australian equity fund managers.

This is an absolute must read article. Bob reports on the presentation by Donald Ratajczak, former chairperson of the President's Council of Economic Advisors, on the outlook for the US economy, particularly the potential for a "double-dip" recession. Other issues addressed by Ratajczak; Is the bubble burst like Japan's? What about energy prices? Are stocks overpriced? Is deflation on the horizon?

The following is a PDF of two presentations from the inaugural Portfolio Construction Forum on 7 August 2002.
1. Graham Rich's introduction of the AAB.
2. the AAB's presentation of its TAA.