The return of wage growth across the industralised world has significant implications for markets and central bank policy - and spells the end of the 30-year rally in bonds.
In Fodder this week: the first of a series of online "Philosophy Lectures". Linda Jakobson explains why China's ambitions to dominate the region will be thwarted. Jim O'Neill discusses oil prices. Charles Sampford, Jack Gray and Clare Payne weigh in on values and investing, and Charles Hamieh debunks the myths around the risk of investing in EM infrastructure.
While some still firmly believe that values and ethics have no part to play in investing, the tide is turning. Values play a vital role in investment and business decisions - and, increasingly, investors care about more than just financial returns.
The IMCA Seminar 8 2017 (22 November 2017) has been assessed and accredited by Portfolio Construction Forum for Forum CE hours. Delegates must confirm their attendance in order to receive CE acceditation.
In Fodder this week: Why sovereign debt crises are now rarer than history would suggest; Dr Woody Brock clears up confusion around the Phillips Curve; behavioural biases creating opportunities to generate alpha; sustainability factors and investment outcomes; and a review of two academic papers on our personal values and professional ethics.
In this week's Forum Fodder: Hausmann on another quiet economics revolution; Kitces on the optimal “shape” of retirement planning; Bird on new research on constructing long-term portfolios; a backgrounder on impact investing; and managing carbon exposure in equity portfolios
Fodder kicks off with Tim Farrelly taking aim at the assertion that Australian banks have a huge vulnerability to a downturn in the residential property market. Yale's Stephen Roach then serves central banks a bouquet (for getting on with normalisation) and brickbat (for the time they're planning to take). Ellerston Capital's Brett Gillespie explains how not to lose money while QE winds down. Michael Furey asks whether you know the impacts of the risk characteristics of your multi-manager portfolios, and explains how to guard against overdiversification. And finally, we feature the top 10-rated Strategies Conference presentation by Fidelity International's Kate Howitt on the six characteristics of world class companies.
Fodder begins with a Forum Backgrounder on the interplay of organisation culture on investment performance and the potentially significant implications for active investment managers. Then, 2013 Nobel laureate Professor Robert Shiller explains why this year’s winner of the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences, Richard Thaler, is a controversial choice (but one he welcomes). Professor Ron Bird reviews two recent papers exploring new ground on two long-established investment strategies – portfolio insurance and momentum investing. We feature the recent Strategies Conference presentation by Platinum’s Andrew Clifford on the dangers of index obsession. And we end with Invesco’s Stephen Anness on why truly contrarian investors focus on valuations.
Fodder kicks off with Tim Farrelly taking aim at the assertion that Australian banks have a huge vulnerability to a downturn in the residential property market. Yale's Stephen Roach then serves central banks a bouquet (for getting on with normalisation) and brickbat (for the time they're planning to take). Ellerston Capital's Brett Gillespie explains how not to lose money while QE winds down. Michael Furey asks whether you know the impacts of the risk characteristics of your multi-manager portfolios, and explains how to guard against overdiversification. And finally, we feature the top 10-rated Strategies Conference presentation by Fidelity International's Kate Howitt on the six characteristics of world class companies.
This week, Fodder starts with Ruth Richardson's presentation from our recent Strategies Conference. Nouriel Roubini gives his take on why inflation has not picked up, despite global growth accelerating. Dr Bob Gay argues that the Fed is only a little behind the curve. Tim Farrelly takes aim at the belief that Australian investors should reduce their Aussie equity holdings and we end with Professor Ron Bird reviewing two "colourful" recent investment research papers.
This week, Fodder starts with Ruth Richardson's presentation from our recent Strategies Conference. Nouriel Roubini gives his take on why inflation has not picked up, despite global growth accelerating. Dr Bob Gay argues that the Fed is only a little behind the curve. Tim Farrelly takes aim at the belief that Australian investors should reduce their Aussie equity holdings and we end with Professor Ron Bird reviewing two "colourful" recent investment research papers.
This week in Fodder, Dr Woody Brock explains that the IT revolution of the past 20 years has driven unmeasured productivity growth and caused inflation and interest rates to fall. Yale's Stephen Roach warns that the US has more to lose than China in Trump's threatened trade conflict. We feature Michael Kitces's presentation on better ways to rebalance portfolios. Michael Edesess highlights three new research papers that point to possible problems in quant research on anomalies. And we finish with another take on exploiting anomalies by PM Capital's Paul Moore
This week in Fodder, Dr Woody Brock explains that the IT revolution of the past 20 years has driven unmeasured productivity growth and caused inflation and interest rates to fall. Yale's Stephen Roach warns that the US has more to lose than China in Trump's threatened trade conflict. We feature Michael Kitces's presentation on better ways to rebalance portfolios. Michael Edesess highlights three new research papers that point to possible problems in quant research on anomalies. And we finish with another take on exploiting anomalies by PM Capital's Paul Moore
This week in Fodder, we feature Professor Moshe Milevsky's top-rated presentation from our recent Strategies Conference, Tim Farrelly highlights two areas where practitioners have a clear advantage over the best fund managers, Dom McCormick analyses the pro's and con's of participating in Magellan's upcoming "monster" closed end listed investment trust IPO. Harvard's Prof Carmen Reinhart warns that while the dollar's status as the world's major reserve currency makes it easy for the US to keep running its 25-year long current-account deficit, it doesn't make it a good idea. And the economics team from Payden & Rygel have created a whiteboard animation to explain why investors can stop worrying about the impact on long-term interest rates of the Fed shrinking its balance sheet.
This week in Fodder, we feature Professor Moshe Milevsky's top-rated presentation from our recent Strategies Conference, Tim Farrelly highlights two areas where practitioners have a clear advantage over the best fund managers, Dom McCormick analyses the pro's and con's of participating in Magellan's upcoming "monster" closed end listed investment trust IPO. Harvard's Prof Carmen Reinhart warns that while the dollar's status as the world's major reserve currency makes it easy for the US to keep running its 25-year long current-account deficit, it doesn't make it a good idea. And the economics team from Payden & Rygel have created a whiteboard animation to explain why investors can stop worrying about the impact on long-term interest rates of the Fed shrinking its balance sheet.
Ensuring your investment process incorporates sustainability factors - climate change, global food shortages, water shortages, and poverty, as well as safety, management and governance scandals - adds up to better outcomes.
The outcome of selecting an active management strategy will likely be greater when both the creativity and predictability of the candidate are considered in equal measure.
With US unemployment at a 15-year low, the US Federal Reserve has greater scope to begin shrinking its balance sheet. Investors should set aside their fears, and remember that the Fed’s balance sheet provides little indication about what will happen to longer term interest rates.
Culture is at the heart of competitive advantage today; this is particularly the case for investment firms where people and their judgments are the chief assets. A strong culture in investment management firms is a requirement for sustainable alpha-generation.
