In Fodder this week, a guide for creating an Investment Policy Framework that encapsulates your investment philosophy, Anatole Kaletsky argues we may be seeing a major structural shift in economic doctrine, Prof Moshe Milesvky top-rated lecture from Conference 2015 on integrating human capital into portfolio construction, Rob Mead on the biggest portfolio risk ahead, and a lecture from Berkeley Professor Shachar Kariv on observing how a client makes financial trade-offs as a more accurate measure of their risk preferences.
This week in Fodder, Dr Bob Gay on why, as the Fed weans itself from past discretionary actions and shifts back towards its usual rules-based framework for decision-making, they are no longer relevant. Prof Dani Rodrik explains why this G20 meeting will be the most interesting for years. Michael Edesess analyses whether it's true that studies of "investor return" vs "investment return" prove the conventional wisdom that individuals underperform the investments they invest in. And finally, we feature two video presentations from recent Forum programs.
Fodder starts with two very different perspectives on interest rates. First, Tim Farrelly arguing Central Banks should be applauded. Then, Yale's Stephen Roach argues that today's central banks are even more impotent than they were in the 1930s. Michael Kitces highlights a new research study that debunks the belief that holding cash is something to avoid. Rob Arnott et al debunk the myth that there is a correlation between stock returns and the political party in power. And, finally we feature the top-10 rated presentation by Colonial First State Global Asset Management's Stephen Halmarick at Markets Summit 2017 on Trump the game changer.
Fodder starts with Nouriel Roubini arguing that Trump's policies are a key risk to the nascent global pick up in economic activity. Dr Bob Gay explains why Fed officials believe they can engineer a graceful exit from their experiment with asset purchases. Invesco's Stephen Anness and Andy Hall have written a terrific paper on the art of contrarian thinking of all types. Prof Ron Bird reviews two new papers on factor investing And finally, we feature the top-10 rated presentation by PIMCO's Joachim Fels at Markets Summit 2017.
This week, Fodder kicks off with Berkeley economist, Professor Shachar Kariv, on the science of uncovering investors' true preferences. Harvard's Prof Hausmann then argues that emerging market bond funds should make people morally queasy. Bob Huebscher recaps the recent debate between Wharton's Jeremy Siegel and Yale's Robert Shiller about the outlook for equity returns. Rob Arnott argues that momentum and value are cheap, but low beta is well overpriced. And we finish with a white paper by AB on low vol investing in Australian Equities
This week, we bring you the third and final installment of Dr Woody Brock's review of the three key risks facing investors, Tim Farrelly then shows that despite their critics, the ratings agencies do a wonderful job of assessing companies. Urban Carmel then debunks the myth that indexing is a threat to market stability and Yale's Stephen Roach looks at the implications (and the irony) of China's new global push. Finally we feature Jeremy Lawson's excellent Markets Summit presentation on the "dire" implications for risk assets of the rising wave of populism.
Fodder kicks off with part 2 of Dr Woody Brock's review of the three key geopolitical risks facing investors Nouriel Roubini asks whether investors are underestimating the potential of rising geopolitical risk to trigger a black swan event. PIMCO's Libby Cantrill explains why President Trump is unlikely to be able to deliver any time this year on his ideas to reignite US economic growth, and Professor Ron Bird reviews three recent papers on factor investing. Fodder ends with Douglas Isles's top 3-rated Finology Summit session on how to help investors stay the course and not fall prey to common behavourial pitfalls.
Fodder starts with Dr Woody Brock's review of the three key risks facing investors. Next, Yale's Stephen Roach rings the bell on the balance of economic power. Then, renowned economist, Lacy Hunt, reviews the Fed's history of tightening and concludes that the secular low in bond yields remains in the future. We feature Australian-based CIMA® certificant Tim Macready's award-winning paper on including an impact investing allocation in portfolios. And we end with Tim Farrelly's top 3-rated Finology Summit session on how a formal, written spending policy can help investors focus on what's really important.
This week Fodder kicks off with an analysis of the first round of the French presidential election, and what an (increasingly likely) Emmanuel Macron-led France would mean. Then we turn to three offerings from Dr Bob Gay, Brett Lewthwaite and PIMCO's Jamil Baz, on debt markets and investments. Finally, Professor Jo Earl's top 5-rated Finology Summit session, on how to get clients (ourselves, for that matter) to turn good intentions into action.
This week's Fodder offers two perspectives, from Linda Jakobson and Prof Barry Eichengreen, on the issue of China/US relations under a Trump presidency. Tim Farrelly then looks at how likely US equities are to return 8% per annum going forward given their current valuation. UTS Prof Ron Bird summarises three recent academic research papers and we feature Michael Kitces's top rated presentation from our recent Finology Summit.
Fodder kicks off with a unique insight from Peter Lilley on how BREXIT will play out. UTSProf Ron Bird disagrees with Paul Keating on first-home buyers using their super to get a foot on the property ladder. Yale's Stephen Roach argues that, yet again, the Western perspective has missed the Chinese context when it comes to growth. Charles Dallara explains Trump will have a bumpy first half year as he learns the ropes of navigating the US political system and we share details of the newly formed Investment Management Research Program, an initiative between the Forum and UTS Business School that will continue to enhance the breadth and depth of our CE and certification programs.
Dr Woody Brock leads this week with an exclusive 15-minute video in which he debunks the myth that our living standards have declined. Berkeley Professor Eichengreen explains what "an impatient [US] president, frustrated and hemmed in on all sides" is likely to do. Michael Kitces argues that every retirement income strategy needs to address three key questions to satisfy our intrinsic (illogical) "hierarchy of retirement needs". Will Jackson covers demography specialist Richard Jackson's insights on how ageing in the developed world is increasing the risk of social upheaval in the developing world. And, we bring you Ron Temple's top five-rated presentation on why "the winds of change" sweeping through the markets are stronger than you think.
Chris Watling returns to Fodder this week with a 10-minute video insight, Prof J Bradford DeLong compares society's overall wealth today to the Agrarian Age, Tim Farrelly debunks the notion that negative gearing is the driver of high property prices and Will Jackson sums up how Markets Summit delegates converted the Faculty's insights into four practical portfolio construction decisions. Finally we feature Martin Conlon's top-rated presentation from Markets Summit 2017 in which he argues how to reposition Australian equity portfolios to protect against the risk of higher inflation and interest rates.
This week's Fodder features Prof Niall Ferguson's presentation from Markets Summit, Prof Ken Rogoff explaining why Trump can't afford to bully China. Our own Will Jackson has written up his key takeouts from Finology Summit, and Michael Furey looks at the evidence of a link between Australian economic growth and equity market returns. And finally, we feature the WEF's founder, Klaus Schwab, on the impact of the fourth industrial revolution on how we will live, work and relate with one another.
In our first Fodder for the year, Jonathan Pain makes the case that 2017 is a year politics really matters to investing, while Mohamed El-Erian is on the same wave length. Dr Bob Gay gives his unique insider's view of what will cause the US Fed to raise rates, when and by how much. Michael Kitces explains how to properly integrate two dimensions of risk profiling into portfolios (don't use a simplistic questionnaire!). Lastly, our own Will Jackson reports on the hot topics debated by the group of 10 senior fund analysts on our Research Roundtable International program.
In our final Fodder for 2016 Tim Farrelly explains why hybrids are not equities, Hamish Douglass offers his take on our Summit 2017 theme and then listen to Prof Niall Ferguson recap the events of 2016 and the implications for markets. India Avenue's Mugunthan Siva argues investors need to relook at why they have equities in portfolios and SSGA's Thomas Poullaouec explains why diversification is a "free drink". Finally, we end with a celebration of the life and times of the Forum's Security and Compliance Manager (aka office sausage), Schnitzel von Krumm.
Hard on the heels of last week's focus on values and investing - including the role of whistleblowers and the media - this week, Dom McCormick writes about the "real" IOOF "scandal", Dr Woody Brock dispels three myths and half-truths about the behavior of bond prices, The Forum's Will Jackson summarises geopolitical forecaster George Friedman's keynote address at the recent ASFA Conference, Michael Kitces's report on why retirees' may not need to save as much, and The Carlyle Group's Jason Thomas warns of the consequences to portfolios of central banks' "Mae West approach" to monetary policy.
This week's Fodder includes a new Resources Kit on the topic of values and investing, Dom McCormick on the post-Trump market rally, Harvard Professor Carmen Reinhart explains why investors are already voting with their feet in advance of the upcoming popular referendum in Italy, and Stephen Hayes outlines what investors should do in the face of overinflated real asset valuations.