46 results found

The bulls are back in charge of markets, as investors dream of a happy ending to the seismic dislocation following the global pandemic. Yet, for those willing to look beyond the headline economic data, a more uncertain outlook emerges. In the US, the disconnect between real GDI and real GDP rhymes with the period preceding the Global Financial Crisis. And, there’s the very real chance that history will in fact repeat and deliver a second Trump presidency later this year. Along with heightened global geopolitical risks, the Axis of Autocracy, reduced fiscal support from governments, a deflating Chinese property bubble, and an ongoing US commercial real estate crisis, 2024 is a year for investors to be nimble and tactical. There will be sensational trading opportunities for those able to navigate the risks hiding in plain sight.

As the clouds of Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity and Ambiguity continue to swirl, the silver lining is that we are on the road back to normal monetary policy settings, from abnormal, and a return to more rational asset prices. But we must be patient.

Jonathan Pain | 0.50 CE

Jonathan Pain, Author and Publisher of The Pain Report, is a regular key note presenter at Portfolio Construction Forum's continuing education programs. Over the years, he has debuted new investment theses and challenged delegates about how to build better quality investor portfolios...

Since I addressed Markets Summit 2022 back on 23 February, arguing "The days of abnormal monetary policy are over", Russia's invasion of Ukraine has triggered a food and energy crisis while declining consumer sentiment and Chinese lockdowns provide headwinds to growth.

With US inflation at a 40-year high, and the housing and labour markets red hot, the US Fed has finally taken a distinct and meaningful step forward on the path back to normal. Investors need to accept that the days of abnormal monetary policy are over.

Jonathan Pain | 0.50 CE

The herculean tug of war between stronger economic growth and higher bond yields will be the defining battleground of 2021 and will be accompanied by violent and rapid-fire recalibrations of relative valuations.

Jonathan Pain | 0.50 CE

We are at the half way mark for 2020, and every fibre of my being tells me that the next six months will see many more extraordinary events. Covid-19 can be seen as the great accelerant, or amplifier.

On Monday, the US central bank acted with stunning shock and awe. Then, government after government announced the biggest fiscal support packages ever seen in history. All of which begs the billion dollar question - sorry, multi, multi trillion dollar question. Are we out of the woods?

The market has now woken up to the size of the traumatic shock to the global economy, which just hit a massive air pocket. In the next few weeks, financial markets and the broad capital markets will come under severe stress. How does this end?

Coronavirus represents a Black Swan event, the economic shock of which to China will reverberate around the world, thereby amplifying and exposing global economic weaknesses.

Jonathan Pain | 0.25 CE

Two of the defining characteristics of the global investment landscape over the last 30 years are being reversed - globalisation (by economic nationalism) and finalisation (as we've reached peak debt).

Jonathan Pain | 0.50 CE

A combination of factors is set to generate an unexpected inflationary shock to the financial markets, leading to significantly higher bond yields and a recalibration of relative valuations.

Jonathan Pain | 0.25 CE

The tectonic plates of the political and economic landscape are rupturing. Brace yourselves for a wild and entertaining ride...

Jonathan Pain | 1 comment | 0.25 CE

The tectonic plates of the political and economic landscape are rupturing. Brace yourselves for a wild and entertaining ride...

Jonathan Pain | 0.25 CE

Should we just keep our heads down and treat political events as nothing more than noise? 2017 is going to be a year when politics does matter. In fact, it always has.

Trump offered entertainment, Clinton a documentary. Entertainment trumps facts every time. Now we need to re-calibrate portfolios to reflect the new fiscal and economic reality of a Trump Presidency.

Quite a few investors think that the current decline in equity markets is analogous to 2011, which we remember as the depths of the eurozone sovereign debt crisis. Do you think the current environment is like 2011? I don't.

Many people have written to me in recent months and asked whether I believe this is yet another 2008. In my view, there are many significant differences. But I'm afraid we're set for some extreme volatility in the months, if not the years, ahead.

The reformist credibility of the Chinese government has been severely damaged by its market intervention, which could be very serious for the ongoing transformation of the world’s most populous nation.

Jonathan Pain | 0.50 CE

As we all brace for lift-off in the key US Federal funds rate, a robust, top-down macro perspective will be even more critical to the success of portfolios than ever.

Jonathan Pain | 0.50 CE