Trump 2.0 is starting where Trump 1.0 ended – with distortions, convoluted logic, and the related risk of major policy blunders.

The economic damage Trump could cause will be moderate, according to Woody Brock. His bigger concern is what could go wrong with foreign policy under Trump because, in Woody's view, the probability of a global war is higher than it has been in decades.

The 2024 US election result could potentially upend assumptions about global growth and markets in the years ahead. The next four years could be Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity and Ambiguity (VUCA) on steroids!

The consensus on Wall Street is that the equity market will keep on rising in 2025. But independent economist, Andrew Hunt, thinks differently. He argues that the US corporate sector is highly leveraged and struggling to generate profits, with private credit posing a systemic risk.

While investors considering supply chain themes face another complex year in 2025, but it would be a mistake to assume there are only risks. There are plenty of opportunities to build sustainable, competitive advantage.

As the ideas and tools popularised under the banner of "nudge theory" have gained traction in the public and private sectors so, too, have ethical concerns regarding their use. Critics have long questioned the ethics of nudging.

Irrational markets are easy to beat? You would think so. But, to quote Yogi Berra, "In theory, theory and practice are the same. In practice, they're different."

2024 was a year of confusing, inspiring, depressing, and energising developments on many fronts. It’s in the spirit of thinking differently and embracing uncertainty that I offer you this year’s set of global developments to watch over the next five years.

What impact will the next US administration have on economic growth and inflation? The answer is not yet clear, because while some of President-elect Donald Trump's proposed policies would boost growth and reduce inflation over time, others will have the opposite effect.

In a world where Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity, and Ambiguity are ever-present and ever-changing, the act of investing is about assessing probabilities and payoffs, not trying to predict what will happen.

At Strategies Summit in August 2024, a diverse panel of asset class experts debated the implications of four medium-term scenarios. Now, practitioners need to re-visit their medium-term outlook for investment markets.

Looking ahead, eight risks to global GDP growth stand out. Investors will need to rethink their investment and allocation strategies to navigate an era defined by uncertainty and uneven growth.

Green bonds have outperformed conventional bonds for five of the last seven years and their potential for positive outcomes during central banks cutting cycles make them a compelling investment.

Despite astonishingly good returns during their limited history, there are too many uncertainties around crypto-currencies to consider them an investable asset.

Supporters often say that a businessman like Trump or Musk will know how to put America's fiscal house in order. But the smart money says they have no idea what they are doing.

The economy played a critical role in the 2024 presidential race, creating the conditions not only for Donald Trump to trounce Kamala Harris and for the Republicans to gain control of the Senate and House but possibly also for a counter-elite to usher in a new power structure.

Research over the last 50+ years has questioned the ability of active fund managers to add value consistently over time. These two papers offer new methods to improve our ability to pick future winners and losers.

History is rhyming again. With the return of President-elect Donald Trump and a Republican Congress, the baseline supply chain policies that investors will have to deal with look a lot like those applied in the 2016 to 2020 period.

Since Plato's Republic, philosophers have known how demagogues and aspiring tyrants win democratic elections. The process is straightforward, and we have now just watched it play out.

While the global economy is on track for a soft landing over the next 12 to 18 months, high stock prices, recession risk, and political uncertainty cloud the outlook for equities.