1. A new challenge to factor-based investing

    Disciples of factor-based investing need to respond to a new challenge - while factor analysis is valuable for two reasons, investors are better served by a strategy based solely on allocating to asset classes, a new study claims.

    Robert Huebscher, Advisor Perspectives | 02-12-15 | More
  2. Goal risk tolerance matters too

    Risk tolerance is a key constraint in designing a portfolio, but it should also be considered a key constraint in establishing their goals for investing in the first place.

    Michael Kitces | 25-11-15 | 0.25 CE | More
  3. Adjusting portfolio allocations based on your job

    Arguably, the future of designing portfolios for accumulators in particular is that the asset class and sector exposures of the portfolio should be adjusted around the risk/return characteristics of the worker's job.

    Michael Kitces | 22-10-15 | 0.50 CE | More
  4. Bond funds don't belong in retirement portfolios

    The efficient frontier for retirement income generally consists of combinations of stocks and income annuities - perhaps surprisingly, bond funds do not serve a useful role in the optimal retirement income portfolio.

    Wade D. Pfau, The American College | 08-10-15 | 0.50 CE | More
  5. A three box approach to building debt portfolios

    With interest rates at record lows, it is a really good time to revisit how we build debt portfolios. A three box approach can really help in making and communicating investment decisions for the secure part of their portfolio in the new, low interest rate environment.

    Tim Farrelly | 05-10-15 | 0.50 CE | 2 comments | More
  6. A widely accepted portfolio construction flaw

    The typical approach to portfolio construction in the world of financial planning is a two-step process encompassing asset allocation and investment selection. It is the second step where a major flaw exists.

    Michael Furey | 30-09-15 | More
  7. Crisis and complexity - birds, fish and fireflies

    Crisis and Complexity explores over a dozen economic and financial catastrophes since 1720, focusing on both the unique characters and historical events that shaped each crisis as well as their common recurring pattern.

    Ross Barry, First State Super | 30-09-15 | More
  8. Faith in central banks fading fast

    Markets have a habit of coming along and kicking you in the teeth when you least expect it - and often when you are most confident you know what you are doing. The bull market in central bank omnipotence is probably over.

    Dominic McCormick | 29-09-15 | More
  9. Investing around human capital

    Focusing on a client's investment portfolio alone ignores their greatest asset - their ability to continue earning income through the fruits of their labor, also known as their "human capital". Deciding how much risk to take with financial capital given a client's human capital risks is crucial.

    Michael Kitces | 24-09-15 | 0.25 CE | More
  10. Opportunity in turmoil

    Turmoil often provides a fantastic opportunity to reassess one's portfolio - and we're currently going through exactly such turmoil. The question is: what are the critical issues that investors should focus on as they rethink portfolio positioning today?

    Vadim Zlotnikov, AB Global | 22-09-15 | More
  11. The Fed throws EMs a lifeline

    Yellen has confirmed what should have been obvious all along - the Fed is not indifferent to international financial stress and its risk-management approach remains strongly biased in favour of "lower for longer". But four things about US monetary policy are frequently misunderstood.

    Anatole Kaletsky | 21-09-15 | More
  12. Europe's recovery - from caterpillar to butterfly?

    The progress we have seen in European markets in 2015 is sustainable over the next 12 months. But, investors should temper return expectations and anticipate continued market volatility.

    JP Morgan Asset Management | 02-09-15 | More
  13. Conference 2015: the director’s cut

    PortfolioConstruction Forum Strategies Conference 2015 featured a carefully selected faculty of more than 35 international and local portfolio construction experts offering their best high conviction ideas about critical portfolio "crossroads". Here are the highlights.

    31-08-15 | More
  14. The Great Debate - At the crossroads...

    Our eclectic Panel - a politician, a pastor, a professor, a portfolio manager, a practitioner, a provocateur, and a 'preneur, moderated by our Publisher - addresses Conference 2015 delegates' questions about key Crossroads, Dilemmas and Decisions.

    20-08-15 | 1.25 CE | More
  15. Australians’ vision of retirement is both promising & worrying

    A recent survey of 1000 Australian investors found that individuals who are advised have greater confidence in their retirement readiness and a heightened awareness of the retirement strategies and solutions available.

    Dan Farley, State Street Global Advisors | 20-08-15 | 0.25 CE | More
  16. 3 strategies to manage retirement income uncertainty

    The danger that “sequence of return risk” can devastate a retirement portfolio is both increasingly recognised and frequently misunderstood. Three concrete, research-driven strategies can help manage it.

    Michael Kitces | 20-08-15 | 1.00 CE | More
  17. Use an institutional approach to manage downside risk

    Portfolio construction specialists face a new set of challenges. What matters is the ability to deliver a robust and predictable outcome. This requires institutional capabilities.

    Don Hamson & Wade Matterson, Plato Milliman | 20-08-15 | 0.75 CE | More
  18. Weather markets with risk strategies

    While 36% of investors say they are ‘reviewing their need for downside protection’, only 8% are currently implementing it. Yet there are many strategies to manage risk in portfolios.

    Jonathan Shead, State Street Global Advisors | 20-08-15 | 0.75 CE | More
  19. Factor Investing must be a strategic allocation

    By avoiding unrewarded risk and by avoiding going against other factors, the risk return profile of factor investing portfolios can be improved further.

    Rob van Bommel, Robeco | 20-08-15 | 0.75 CE | More
  20. After wasting the Goldilocks Era, EM are at a crossroads

    EM policymakers have wasted their commodity-fueled Goldilocks Era and are sitting at a crossroads. Without a dramatic policy shift, EM are a value trap, if not an outright bubble.

    Marko Papic, BCA Research | 20-08-15 | 0.50 CE | More
  21. 3 fundamental strategies for adding alpha

    Indexing could be as problematic during the next few decades as it has been successful in the past few. This heightens the appeal of active management for those brave enough to pursue it.

    Woody Brock | 20-08-15 | 0.50 CE | More
  22. Alts - answer to the diver-sification dilemma

    With traditional asset classes expensive and historically low yields on bonds compromising their role as a diversifier, investors are at a crossroads. Investors should be looking for alternative sources of return and genuine diversification.

    Ashley O'Connor, Invesco Australia | 19-08-15 | 0.75 CE | More
  23. Active share – winning the game of loans

    There are two possible outcomes from the extreme debt levels in the global economy - high inflation or long-term below trend growth. The key dilemma is how to minimise this uncertainty and return dispersion.

    Warryn Robertson | 19-08-15 | 0.75 CE | More
  24. China’s property bubble set to burst!

    Recent stock market volatility demonstrates that asset price growth expectations can’t be taken for granted in China, despite intervention from policymakers. The bursting of China’s property bubble poses a major risk to the stability of China and the global economy – and a critical dilemma for investors.

    Sam Churchill, Magellan Asset Management | 19-08-15 | 0.75 CE | More
  25. Exploit the structural issues in Australian Equities

    QE has driven a search for yield globally, resulting in a unique Australian experience that has seen the major ASX indices become increasingly concentrated. We are at the crossroads for active Australian equity management.

    Paul Drzewucki, Ellerston Capital | 19-08-15 | 0.75 CE | More
  26. Fixed income - it's time to jump off the benchmark bus

    The US Federal Reserve is (reluctantly) ending a long period of abnormally low rates. Investors should consider flexible benchmark unaware approaches in their fixed income portfolios, to potentially mitigate adverse market conditions going forward.

    Stephen Miller, BlackRock | 19-08-15 | 0.75 CE | More
  27. Risk management is as important as return management

    Investors need to be more focused on downside risk management. An environment of lower expected returns and higher volatility means risk management is just as important as return management.

    Tracey McNaughton, UBS Global Asset Management | 19-08-15 | 0.75 CE | More
  28. Small cap equities are an essential risk diversifier

    The diverse range of quality small cap companies with recurring earnings and growing dividend yields offer investors essential risk diversification and should be incorporated into portfolios.

    Simon Conn, Investors Mutual | 19-08-15 | 0.75 CE | More
  29. Rising rates - investors can benefit

    Many investors are facing a dilemma with the perceived risk embedded in debt markets as Fed lift-off looms. However, reality beckons - rates will rise and investors can benefit.

    Tony Crescenzi | 19-08-15 | 0.75 CE | More
  30. Clear philosophy best for decisions

    Having a clear investment philosophy based on our own belief set - a living document that we evolve and sharpen over time - is the best tool to making investment decisions under uncertainty.

    Tim Farrelly | 19-08-15 | 0.50 CE | More
  31. Panel: The global outlook - lower for longer, or higher is here?

    Our panel debated the contrasting views of the two presenters who addressed this "crossroad" - that rates are likely to go higher than most expect over the next three years vs that markets will go on tolerating lower interest rates for far longer.

    19-08-15 | 0.50 CE | More
  32. "Lower for longer" is the view of the bulls

    The view that markets will go on tolerating lower interest rates for far longer is the more benign, market friendly (almost bullish) outlook than the common thinking that higher interest rates will be good.

    Brett Lewthwaite, Macquarie Investment Management | 19-08-15 | 0.50 CE | More
  33. Markets mispricing future rates

    With the Fed signalling its intention to raise rates, there is great disagreement about the quantum of rises ahead. Rates are likely to go higher than most expect - and the risk of a material equity market correction is elevated.

    Hamish Douglass, Magellan Financial Group | 19-08-15 | 0.50 CE | More
  34. At the crossroads… Dilemmas I Decisions

    Portfolio construction is approaching a crossroads – critical questions must be answered, and critical decisions must now be made.

    Graham Rich, PortfolioConstruction Forum | 19-08-15 | 0.50 CE | More
  35. A client's life is a mix of stocks & bonds - allocate around it

    It is time to properly account for risk characteristics of client’s most valuable asset - their human capital. This isn’t easy to implement and places practitioners in a difficult situation...

    Moshe Milevsky, York University | 19-08-15 | 1.50 CE | More
  36. Strategic allocation to premiums in the equity market

    Investors can substantially improve the risk/return characteristics of their strategic asset allocation by considering not only the classic equity premium, but also other premiums present in the equity market.

    David Blitz, Robeco | 13-08-15 | More
  37. Alternatives answer your diversification dilemma

    Although it is widely appreciated that past performance is not a guide to future returns, it is less appreciated that past diversification is not a guide to future risk.

    Invesco | 10-08-15 | More
  38. Individual's three types of capital

    Individuals have three types of capital - financial capital (pretty obvious, everybody understands that) as well as human capital and social capital. All three affect our financial and retirement decisions.

    Moshe Milevsky, York University | 10-08-15 | More
  39. Does active share equal good performance?

    High active share is often profiled as "better" but such portfolios can exhibit risk concentrations which may lead to volatile return streams. Low active share funds should not be excluded from asset allocators’ tool kit.

    Ido Eisenberg & Piera Elisa Grassi, JP Morgan Asset Management | 07-08-15 | 1.00 CE | More
  40. Nearing normal

    The US Federal Reserve is (reluctantly) ending a long period of abnormally low rates. Traditional drivers of portfolio returns such as productivity and earnings growth are set to reassert themselves.

    BlackRock Investment Institute | 31-07-15 | More
  41. Risk aware investment

    Traditionally, risk management might have been considered as a monitoring activity only. Risk analysis, can, however, add value at the earlier stages of the investment process.

    Mark Deans, UBS Global Asset Management | 31-07-15 | More
  42. Not a People’s Republic - an empire

    The single most important macro-trend of our time is China's attempt to transform itself from a typical (if large) emerging market into an empire. The interesting bit for investors is that growing empires usually breed strong currencies.

    Louis-Vincent Gave, GaveKal | 30-07-15 | More
  43. The ratcheting safe withdrawal rate

    A simple ratchet-style "safe" withdrawal rate approach, where spending is increased by 10% any time the portfolio rises more than 50% above its starting value, beats the traditional 4% rule, generating equal or better retirement spending, even while being conservative enough to not require a spending cut in the event of a market pullback in the future.

    Michael Kitces | 22-07-15 | 0.50 CE | 1 comment | More
  44. The end of an empire

    We should acknowledge the Greek crisis for what it is - the death-knell for the European dream of empire. The growing reality is the return of borders, national preferences, and opt-outs. The euro has become a structurally weak currency and European bonds are likely to underperform those of other, nonshrinking, empires.

    Louis-Vincent Gave, GaveKal | 20-07-15 | More
  45. Markets from China, media commentary from Uranus

    Despite all the negative ink that's been spilt over the recent collapse in Chinese equities, we continue to believe that a year from now there will be more marginal buyers of Chinese equities than today.

    Louis-Vincent Gave, GaveKal | 10-07-15 | More
  46. Should investors look after PETS?

    Understanding PETS - Political, Environmental, Technological/Scientific, Social - factors is relevant, if not crucial, to us as citizens. But to what extent are they relevant or important to investing?

    Prof Jack Gray, UTS | 09-07-15 | More
  47. The best approach to adjustable retirement withdrawals

    The classic 4% rule holds withdrawals at 4% of the initial value of the portfolio at retirement. A great deal of recent research has focused on strategies that adjust withdrawals depending on investment experience.

    Joe Tomlinson, Tomlinson Financial Planning | 08-07-15 | 0.75 CE | More
  48. Bank hybrids - equity risk with bond returns?

    We hear this one a lot. It's incredibly misleading. Bank hybrids offer better than bond returns with higher risk, and lower than equity returns with much lower than equity risk.

    Tim Farrelly | 06-07-15 | More
  49. Crossroads: Is it lower rates for longer? Or back to higher rates?

    Will low interest rates be with us for decades? Or are higher rates ahead? Our Academy panel argues the case for "lower for longer" versus "back to higher" - and the implications for portfolios.

    Hamish Douglas, Rob Mead, Chris Joye, Tim Farrelly | 03-07-15 | 1.50 CE | More
  50. Four geopolitical issues to watch

    Four "big picture" geopolitical conditions will affect policy and markets going forward - in order of importance, the South China Sea, Russia returns, the end of Sykes-Picot in the Middle East, and the unwinding of the EU.

    Bill O'Grady, Confluence Investment Management | 01-07-15 | More
  51. Symposium 2015 - my key takeouts

    As always, PortfolioConstruction Forum Symposium is the highlight of my year in terms of professional development. This year's was probably the best to date. Here are the key takeouts I sent to my clients.

    Janet Natta, Smart Money Advice | 22-06-15 | More
  52. Academy

    PortfolioConstruction Forum Academy challenges and advances portfolio construction knowledge and wisdom. Open to a select group of just 80 senior, experienced portfolio construction practitioners each year, Academy will enable you to continuously develop, test, and validate your portfolio construction philosophy and decision-making framework.

    20-06-15 | More
  53. 2014-2015 Academy Resources Kit

    The 2014-2015 Academy Resources Kit is a rich repository of continuing education material including the presentations, podcasts, and research papers from the Academy Seminars for the 2014-2015 curriculum year...

    20-06-15 | More
  54. 2013-2014 Academy Resources Kit

    The 2013-2014 Academy Resources Kit is a rich repository of continuing education material including the presentations, podcasts, and research papers from the Academy Seminars for the 2013-2014 curriculum year...

    20-06-15 | More
  55. 2012-2013 Academy Resources Kit

    The 2012-2013 Academy Resources Kit is a rich repository of continuing education material including the presentations, podcasts, and research papers from the Academy Seminars for the 2012-2013 curriculum year.

    20-06-15 | More
  56. 2011-2012 Academy Resources Kit

    The 2011-2012 Academy Resources Kit is a rich repository of continuing education material including the presentations, podcasts, and research papers from the Academy Seminars for the 2011-2012 curriculum year.

    20-06-15 | More
  57. 2010-2011 Academy Resources Kit

    The 2010-2011 Academy Resources Kit is a rich repository of continuing education material including the presentations, podcasts, and research papers from the Academy Seminars for the 2010-2011 curriculum year.

    20-06-15 | More
  58. Academy Winter Seminar 2015 - Resources Kit

    PortfolioConstruction Forum Academy Winter Seminar 2015 featured four sessions. This Resources Kit contains the materials for preparing for the Seminar, as well as the presentation slides.

    15-06-15 | 37 comments | More
  59. Protect and survive

    I am convinced that both economies and markets are reaching a point of transition where one of two discrete outcomes is likely. Portfolios must offer the potential for reasonable performance in either eventuality.

    Charles Gave, GaveKal | 11-06-15 | More
  60. Outperformance candidates

    In 2015, currencies will basically drive the outperformance candidates as economies try to steal growth from each other. Plus, there is a decade-long mania candidate - healthcare.

    Lenka Martinek, BCA Research | 08-06-15 | More
  61. 2015 Symposium - Resources Kit

    Symposium 2015 featured 20+ leading investment professionals arguing their best, high conviction ideas about the markets, strategies and investing.

    05-06-15 | More
  62. Big raises and lifestyle creep

    The surprising result of a recent study is that the "conventional" view that earnings rise steadily (above inflation) throughout our careers is not accurate. Good spending habits established early on can make an astounding difference to wealth over a lifetime.

    Michael Kitces | 29-05-15 | 0.50 CE | More
  63. Small is beautiful

    We now have enough history to determine who the winners were from 25 years of globalisation. The answer? Small countries. The investment conclusion is obvious - overweight good companies listed in small countries.

    Charles Gave, GaveKal | 29-05-15 | More
  64. The patient is out, but the doctor is (all) in

    Divergences in global economic and policy outcomes have important implications for markets around the world. This policy divergence has directly influenced asset prices across the globe with implications for stocks, bonds and currency markets.

    David Fisher, PIMCO | 28-05-15 | 0.50 CE | More
  65. The Chinese property bubble is set to burst!

    China now has to deal with a massive excess supply of property… This is unlikely to be “just another property cycle” in China. The bursting of China’s property bubble poses a major risk to both the country’s stability and the global economy.

    Sam Churchill, Magellan Asset Management | 28-05-15 | 0.50 CE | More
  66. Cash may not be king - but it could be a handsome prince

    In this environment, what’s very important is capital preservation. The problem investors have is that there are very few places to hide. So, while cash may not be king, I think it could end up being a very handsome prince.

    Simon Doyle, Schroders | 26-05-15 | More
  67. Stress testing for DIMS

    If you have a DIMS license, you are required to stress test portfolios. Here are two practical approaches to stress testing, and the strengths and weaknesses of each to help you build your approach to portfolio stress testing.

    Tim Farrelly | 20-05-15 | 0.75 CE | More
  68. Portfolio construction of the future will focus on 3 risk buckets

    Portfolio construction should focus on three risk buckets – beta, smart beta, and alpha. If not, you run the risk of creating a poorly diversified (that is, over diversified) portfolio – and, worse, a portfolio that costs far more than it should.

    Michael Furey | 20-05-15 | 0.75 CE | More
  69. Symposium 2015 Key Takeouts Workshop - Strategies & Investing

    Each of our Symposium 2015 DDF presenters gave a 2-minute overview of their high conviction portfolio construction strategy idea.

    20-05-15 | More
  70. Harness India's growth by investing before the crowd

    Rather than large, liquid companies with significant global revenue bases which dominate benchmark allocations, investors should seek exposure to India’s surging local demand…

    Mugunthan Siva, India Avenue Investment Management | 20-05-15 | 0.75 CE | More
  71. Multi-manager global equity portfolios needn’t be low active share

    When combining managers together to form a multi-manager global equity portfolio, investors should still aim to keep active share relatively high.

    Alan Clarke, ANZ Investments | 20-05-15 | 0.75 CE | More
  72. NZ debt – picking the highest yield is not enough

    uilding NZ fixed interest portfolios is harder than it has ever been… Portfolios need to be constructed for the specific needs of clients, which will typically be a combination of liquidity, income, quality, and diversification

    Christian Hawkesby, Harbour Asset Management | 20-05-15 | 0.75 CE | More
  73. Small Caps are an essential risk diversifier

    The diverse range of quality small cap companies with recurring earnings and growing dividend yields offer investors essential risk diversification and should be incorporated into portfolios.

    Simon Conn, Investors Mutual | 20-05-15 | 0.75 CE | More
  74. All is not lost in preserving yield in a low-yield environment

    Investors will need to hunt out alternative sources of yield to meet their investment objectives. All is not lost. Yield can be preserved in a low yield world but investors need to be aware of the risks and trade-offs.

    Keith Poore, AMP Capital NZ | 20-05-15 | 0.75 CE | More
  75. Symposium 2015 Key Takeouts Workshop - The Markets

    Each panelist outlined which high conviction markets idea from Symposium 2015 day one they agreed with most, and which one they agreed with least.

    20-05-15 | More
  76. Risk and return – not as tight a link as we've been taught

    What return premia - if any - are attached to different types of investment risk? And just how reliable are those premia are in practice? Can the risks be diversified?

    Tim Farrelly | 20-05-15 | 0.50 CE | More
  77. Past accumulation/decumulation models won't work in future

    It’s possible, or more likely probable, that for future generations, our money will run out before our body does. This means that our historical models of accumulation and decumulation will not work for future generations.

    Diane Maxwell, The Retirement Commissioner | 20-05-15 | 0.75 CE | More
  78. Asset allocation will dominate portfolio returns in the years ahead

    As we all brace for lift-off in the key US Federal funds rate, a robust, top-down macro perspective will be even more critical to the success of portfolios than ever.

    Jonathan Pain | 19-05-15 | 0.50 CE | More
  79. Portfolio construction implications panel - The NZ Economy

    Our Symposium 2015 debated their high conviction ideas on the drivers of, and medium-term outlook for, the New Zealand economy.

    19-05-15 | 0.50 CE | More
  80. Portfolio construction implications panel - Market

    Our Symposium 2015 Faculty debated their high conviction ideas on the drivers of, and medium-term (two to three year) outlook for the markets.

    19-05-15 | 0.75 CE | More
  81. Investing in NZ is a big challenge for an Au-based, Kiwi investor

    Despite a genuine desire to invest in New Zealand on behalf of a substantial Australian superannuation fund, after several years of trying, no money has been invested.

    Sean Henaghan, AMP Capital | 19-05-15 | 0.50 CE | More
  82. Oil price moves are a cyclical risk

    For investors, one of the most important events of 2014 was the dramatic collapse in the oil price. The long-term equilibrium price is now likely to be lower. Overall, portfolios must be repositioned for increased volatility.

    Nick Langley | 19-05-15 | 0.50 CE | More
  83. Don’t ignore the tech sector for growth investing

    Returns in defensive equity yield and income sectors have been outsized as bond yields have fallen. Growth sectors have underperformed. But globally, technology shares are cheap on a relative basis.

    Andrew Bascand, Harbour Asset Management | 19-05-15 | 0.50 CE | More
  84. Get used to low interest rates

    World-wide low interest rates are not a temporary phenomenon. The world has changed and it is highly likely that the current low rate environment will be with us for decades. Getting used to low rates will be a critical adjustment for all investors to make in the coming years.

    Tim Farrelly | 19-05-15 | 0.50 CE | More
  85. Desperate central banks are causing Pollyanna asset prices

    Slow growth is an old story. The new story is that world is finally beginning to re-balance - a process that unfortunately will take another 20 years. Well-intended policies are causing bubbles and distortions to asset prices.

    Robert Gay | 19-05-15 | 0.50 CE | 2 comments | More
  86. The global economy is firing on all cylinders

    The outlook for the global economy is unambiguously positive. At long last, all regional economic cylinders are firing in unison and secular stagnation is yesterday's story.

    Jonathan Pain | 19-05-15 | 0.50 CE | 1 comment | More
  87. Facilitating debate on the markets, strategies & investing

    PortfolioConstruction Forum Publisher and Symposium NZ 2015 Moderator, Graham Rich, opened Symposium NZ 2015 in his usual thought-provoking (and entertaining) way, highlighting key issues to consider over the jam-packed, marathon program.

    Graham Rich, PortfolioConstruction Forum | 19-05-15 | 0.50 CE | More
  88. NZ fixed interest - picking the highest yield is not enough

    With NZ fixed interest portfolios arguably harder to build than ever before, this paper introduces a framework for practitioners to build fixed interest portfolios for to meet the needs of individual clients.

    Christian Hawkesby, Harbour Asset Management | 13-05-15 | More
  89. Secular reflation

    I think we have seen the low in European bond yields and that we have commenced on the path - at long last - of secular reflation.

    Jonathan Pain | 13-05-15 | More
  90. A matter of time

    Have you ever wondered about why some people plan for retirement and other people don’t? Whether people focus on the past, the present or the future - their Time Perspective - influences their retirement planning behaviour.

    Joanne Earl | 13-05-15 | 1.00 CE | More
  91. Riding a wave of accommodation - carefully

    Lower oil prices and a wave of monetary policy accommodation are a net positive for the global economy, but there are losers as well as winners, especially in some emerging market economies.

    Richard Clarida and Andrew Balls, PIMCO | 12-05-15 | More
  92. A sense of an ending

    I have a sense of a secular bull market ending with a whimper, not a bang. Only the timing is in doubt. Because of this, I have increasingly a great unrest. You should too.

    Bill Gross, Janus Capital Group | 05-05-15 | More
  93. Size matters, if you control your junk

    In recent years, academics have been at war over whether the small cap premium exists. This recent paper finds it does - if you control for quality - and that it is significant, and not time or market specific.

    Angela Ashton, PortfolioConstruction Forum | 30-04-15 | 2.00 CE | More
  94. No one likes to pay taxes

    To maintain "no taxation, no representation" deal with its people, China's leadership seems to be going down a path that'd see index funds as forced buyers of Chinese equities.

    Louis-Vincent Gave, GaveKal | 29-04-15 | More
  95. Should we focus on E/P instead?

    Is it time to start thinking more about E/P ratios than P/E ratios? After all, predicting that returns may be higher or lower with a low (or high) earnings yield (and a corresponding P/E ratio) really isn't so controversial.

    Michael Kitces | 28-04-15 | More
  96. Risk, uncertainty and ignorance

    Investors often face unknown and even unknowable states of the world. How should we make investment decisions under ignorance?

    Prof Jack Gray, UTS | 22-04-15 | More
  97. Much lower interest rates for longer

    Low GDP growth, very low real rates, higher PEs and valuation multiples - it's a new world. We all need to get used to it. In particular, we should review client spending plans.

    Tim Farrelly | 21-04-15 | 1 comment | More
  98. Gold may regain its shine

    While it has offered a very bumpy and challenging ride in recent years, I suspect those prepared to buy and hold some gold exposure today will be well rewarded.

    Dominic McCormick | 13-04-15 | More
  99. The end of an era

    Now the Fed has opened the door to normalising interest, what constitutes "normal"? Take care in stretching for yield now the Fed is no longer making promises.

    Robert Gay | 24-03-15 | More
  100. Academy Autumn Seminar 2015 - Resources Kit

    PortfolioConstruction Forum Academy Autumn Seminar 2015 featured four sessions. This Resources Kit contains the materials for preparing for the Seminar, as well as the presentation slides.

    24-03-15 | 41 comments | More
  101. Demographic changes, financial markets, and the economy

    This paper by Rob Arnott and Denis Chaves looks the effects of different age cohorts on GDP and asset class returns.

    Vimal Gor, BT Investment Management | 19-03-15 | 1.75 CE | More
  102. 9 out of 10 times the consensus will be wrong?

    When faced with a huge majority of experts expecting international equities to outperform Australian equities, I blurted this out. I was wrong, and on a few counts.

    Tim Farrelly | 17-03-15 | 3 comments | More
  103. Beware the euro consensus

    The US dollar is hitting new 12-year highs almost daily and the euro seems to be plunging to below parity. But there are at least four factors pressuring it the other way.

    Anatole Kaletsky | 16-03-15 | More
  104. How should retirees manage risk?

    This paper offers a surprising amount of info and interesting ways of framing investment issues in retirement, and some good analysis of longevity risk.

    Angela Ashton, PortfolioConstruction Forum | 10-03-15 | 0.75 CE | 2 comments | More
  105. Macro will not be the market

    Macroeconomic outlooks may differ from where you can receive market returns. The outlook can be summarised in three words - improvement, divergence and decoupling.

    Kevin Anderson, State Street Global Advisors | 09-03-15 | More
  106. Currency - to hedge or not?

    Currency risk is a significant issue for Australian investors. This paper summarises the research on optimal hedge ratios for international equities exposures.

    Angela Ashton, PortfolioConstruction Forum | 05-03-15 | 0.50 CE | More
  107. The oil bubble implosion

    Since the 1980s, oil prices have fallen 50% or more over six months just twice - including last year. Was oil a bubble which has now imploded? Or is oil set to bounce back?

    Louis-Vincent Gave, GaveKal | 04-03-15 | More
  108. Buy the bad and the ugly

    Despite forecasts of continued superior US economic growth, we are selling down our beloved US quality stocks in favor of the problem children of the investing world.

    Ben Inker, GMO | 25-02-15 | More
  109. 2015 Markets Summit - Resources Kit

    Markets Summit 2015 - Cyclical? Structural? Secular? - featured 19 international and local investment experts debating their best ideas on the key cyclical, structural and secular issues driving the medium-term outlook for markets - and, of course, the implications for portfolios. This Resources Kit is a deluge of videos, podcasts, and papers for all sessions of the jam-packed program so you can "attend" even if you weren't there.

    24-02-15 | 10.00 CE | 1 comment | More
  110. Just how important is asset allocation?

    In this seminal paper, Ibbotson confirms that after the decision to actually invest is made, asset allocation and manager selection are equally important.

    Angela Ashton, PortfolioConstruction Forum | 23-02-15 | 0.50 CE | More
  111. Markets Summit 2015 Great Debate - intl vs Au equities

    In this not-to-be-missed session of a not-to-be-missed program few prisoners were taken in debating the moot "overweight int'l equities, underweight Au equities.

    Angela Ashton, PortfolioConstruction Forum | 19-02-15 | 3 comments | More
  112. Currency tailwind losing force?

    Investing globally is increasingly popular with the expectation of a continued weak AUD being a big driver. But easy currency gains may have been had.

    Dominic McCormick | 19-02-15 | More
  113. Science of spending - money can buy happiness

    New research suggests that the best things to do to improve our happiness may lie in NOT trying to maximise our wealth.

    Michael Kitces | 18-02-15 | More
  114. Signals revisited

    Pippa picked up where she left off in her opening keynote, tying the Markets Summit 2015 proceedings together, summarising her key takeouts, and their implications for portfolios.

    Hon. Dr Pippa Malmgren, DRPM Group | 17-02-15 | 0.50 CE | More
  115. Markets Summit 2015 - The Great Debate

    In this simulated investment board meeting, our day's 17 international and local Faculty members debated and voted on whether to overweight international equities and underweight Australian equities in portfolios on a two- to three-year view.

    Markets Summit 2015 Investment Advisory Board | 17-02-15 | 1.00 CE | More
  116. In a race without a hare, the US holds the cards in 2015

    In 2014, we witnessed the return of market volatility. With potentially significant market return and volatility, investors should consider portfolio positioning before the fact.

    Erik L. Knutzen, Neuberger Berman | 17-02-15 | 0.50 CE | More
  117. Navigating the fourth D is essential for performance

    The fourth D confronting investors - the disruptions wrought by technological change. Cash cows, thoroughbred stocks and roll-ups are best placed in a world challenged by the four Ds.

    Kate Howitt | 17-02-15 | 0.50 CE | More
  118. Babies - the key secular trend that will drive portfolio returns

    While demographics will still dominate into the future, energy and automation are quickly rising to be just as important with significant implications for portfolios.

    Vimal Gor, BT Investment Management | 17-02-15 | 0.50 CE | More
  119. Break-up of the eurozone is inevitable

    A currency union absent of full political union is inherently unstable. After the first country exits the eurozone, markets will attack the next most vulnerable. The dominos will fall.

    Bruce Campbell, Pyrford International | 17-02-15 | 0.50 CE | More
  120. Time to think "yes" Japan, not "ex" Japan

    Few opportunities are available today where discounts to intrinsic value outweigh downside risks. Japanese corporations are increasingly embracing ROE and shareholder value.

    John Hock, Altrinsic Global Advisors | 17-02-15 | 0.50 CE | More
  121. India's transformation: a compelling fixed income opportunity

    As its capital markets develop, the macro picture improves, inflation comes under control, and the economy grows, India's credit and rates markets present a compelling opportunity.

    Neeraj Seth, BlackRock | 17-02-15 | 0.50 CE | More
  122. Greenspan 2.0 - the Bernanke Boom will bust

    Since Q4 2014, oil prices have plunged, currency markets are at war and intraday volatility of stock indices is disturbing. A crisis mode has started. Asset allocators must mitigate risks before this next crisis inevitably hits.

    Thomas Poullaouec, State Street Global Advisors | 17-02-15 | 0.50 CE | More
  123. Oil price moves are a cyclical risk, adding volatility to markets

    One of the most important events of 2014 for investors was the dramatic collapse in the oil price. Overall, investment portfolios must be repositioned for increased volatility.

    Nick Langley | 17-02-15 | 0.50 CE | More
  124. The great US equity bull market is finished

    The US equity market will disappoint going forward. Global equity investors need to be far less US-centric to capture better returns.

    Joe Bracken, Tempo Asset Management | 17-02-15 | 0.50 CE | More
  125. Limbo lower - real rates are structurally lower

    Navigating the lower limbo stick will require more unconstrained investing, greater consideration of the chosen benchmark, and a greater focus on downside risk management.

    Tracey McNaughton, UBS Global Asset Management | 17-02-15 | 0.50 CE | More
  126. Australia's New Neutral: Low interest rates for even longer

    Lower 'neutral' monetary policy rates across the developed world will continue to serve as an important anchor for the secular valuation of all asset classes.

    Robert Mead, PIMCO | 17-02-15 | 0.50 CE | More
  127. EM in a rising USD world: vulnerabilities but no systemic risk

    Emerging markets will face a more challenging economic and financial outlook over the next few years - but systemic risk across the emerging world is lower than before the Asian crisis.

    Jeremy Lawson, Standard Life Investments | 17-02-15 | 0.50 CE | More
  128. The US stands out in a low growth world

    De-leveraging, widening inequality and structural reforms limit growth in developed markets. The US is the most advanced in addressing these challenges.

    Ronald Temple | 17-02-15 | 0.50 CE | More
  129. Greece - a case study for Eurozone strain

    2015 will be a year of huge uncertainty about the future of the Euro. These uncertainties are likely to pose a fundamental challenge to investing in the Eurozone.

    Charles Dallara, Partners Group | 17-02-15 | 0.50 CE | More
  130. Emerging Markets: Cyclically challenged, structurally adjusting, secularly promising

    Differentiation is key for emerging markets. Secularly, countries enjoying the rise of consumerism are expected to drive local company earnings above the global norm.

    Tai Hui, JP Morgan Asset Management | 17-02-15 | 0.50 CE | More
  131. Signals

    Economic signals are everywhere. By being alert to signals, anyone can start to navigate through the turbulence of the world economy.

    Hon. Dr Pippa Malmgren, DRPM Group | 17-02-15 | 0.50 CE | More
  132. Global growth divergence in 2015

    That the global economy didn’t kick on in 2014 may instill some scepticism among investors about 2015’s prospects. There are five important themes to consider through 2015.

    Rick Lacaille, State Street Global Advisors | 11-02-15 | More
  133. EM: adjusting, secularly promising

    EM equities and fixed income enjoyed a boom in the 2000s. Now after several years of relative underperformance, EMs appear to be on the cusp of stronger growth.

    Tai Hui, JP Morgan Asset Management | 10-02-15 | 1.00 CE | More
  134. Secondary market for corporate bond markets liquidity in 2014

    The US secondary corporate bond market is in a time of significant upheaval. Changes to regulations has caused a new, insidious liquidity risk.

    Scott Weiner, Payden & Rygel | 10-02-15 | 2.00 CE | More
  135. The risk of a US recession in 2016

    The most important issue for investors is the risk of a US recession in 2016. It would play out to a global recession. There are cyclical, structural and secular forces at work.

    Chris Watling | 10-02-15 | More
  136. Not another Emerging Market crisis

    After a run of historically rapid improvement in living standards in the first decade of the millennium, emerging markets will face a more challenging outlook - not a crisis - over the next few years.

    Jeremy Lawson & Nicolas Jaquier, Standard Life Investments | 10-02-15 | 2.00 CE | More
  137. Strategic Spotlight - Ten for ‘15

    As the US potentially enters its sixth year of expansion, we are optimistic its economy can continue on a steady trajectory throughout 2015. Elsewhere in the world, the outlook is murkier.

    Investment Strategy Group, Neuberger Berman | 10-02-15 | More
  138. Beyond beta

    An emphasis on tactical asset allocation, careful bottom-up security selection and prudent relative value decisions are going to be critical in 2015.

    Mihir Worah, PIMCO | 10-02-15 | More
  139. All things considered - outlook for 2015

    2015 has got off to an eventful start - we've seen dramatic changes only five weeks into the year. Here's where I see markets going in 2015. A couple of things really stand out.

    Jonathan Pain | 09-02-15 | More
  140. Academy Summer Seminar 2015 - Resources Kit

    PortfolioConstruction Forum Academy Summer Seminar 2015 featured four sessions. This Resources Kit contains the materials for preparing for the Seminar, as well as the presentation slides.

    05-02-15 | 48 comments | More
  141. The great unwinding

    The world economy today is defined by the unwinding, the reversal of several very long-term economic trends - and they have economic and investment implications.

    Robert Baur, Principal Global Advisors | 29-01-15 | More
  142. A primer on geopolitics and investing

    Does geopolitics have investment implications? In short - yes - and this paper provides a clear understanding of both geopolitics and its clear link to investment markets.

    Angela Ashton, PortfolioConstruction Forum | 28-01-15 | 1.25 CE | More
  143. Land of the (re)rising Sun

    Japan has a history of changing dramatically, often when least expected. As Abe's economic policies and structural reforms spark growth, Japan is well-positioned to reemerge as a global investment force.

    Tim Griffen, Lazard Asset Management | 27-01-15 | More
  144. Australia, the next shoe to drop

    Australia still looks like one of the holdout anomalies in global markets where the adjustment from a decade of mispriced assets has yet to fully play out.

    Will Denyer et al, GaveKal | 23-01-15 | More
  145. Risk transfer vs risk retention

    The real distinction in retirement income philosophies is not about which are "safe" and which are not. It is whether risk is transferred or retained (and if retained, managed).

    Michael Kitces | 20-01-15 | 1 comment | More
  146. Deja vu de-leveraging

    As long as policymakers can stay on course and avoid the policy mistakes of the late 1990s, the oil price collapse could prove more therapeutic than destructive.

    Robert Gay | 19-01-15 | More