1. Is swapping volatility risk for longevity risk the right strategy?

    Given increasing longevity, it's important that retirees not ignore strategies that can generate long-term capital growth. In short, retirees need to re-examine the role of equities in their portfolio.

    Mugunthan Siva, India Avenue Investment Management | 16-12-16 | More
  2. No free lunch in investing - but are there free drinks?

    When it comes to returns, it's true that there is no free lunch - for one person to win, another loses. But with risk, diversification offers "free drinks", albeit that the bar where these are served evolves over time because correlation is not static.

    Thomas Poullaouec, State Street Global Advisors | 15-12-16 | More
  3. Bank hybrids are not equities...

    Another major licensee has reportedly fallen for the hybrid scare campaigns, insisting bank hybrids securities be treated as equities. The premise is hopelessly flawed.

    Tim Farrelly | 12-12-16 | 11 comments | More
  4. Using age banding to estimate spending in retirement

    A growing body of research on the actual spending habits of retirees finds spending declines over time, implying retirees may not need to be saving as much to retire.

    Michael Kitces | 30-11-16 | More
  5. Trump rally - genuine growth or groupthink gamble?

    I wonder whether this post-Trump market rally and associated bullish economic and market narrative will come to be seen as one of the more prominent historical examples of poorly timed and lazy market groupthink.

    Dominic McCormick | 16-11-16 | 2 comments | More
  6. The new economic reality show

    Trump offered entertainment, Clinton a documentary. Entertainment trumps facts every time. Now we need to re-calibrate portfolios to reflect the new fiscal and economic reality of a Trump Presidency.

    Jonathan Pain | 11-11-16 | 1 comment | More
  7. Why Trump could be good for markets

    Trump is unambiguously the pure American profit maximiser. This could be the most business and financial markets friendly regime in a long time.

    Christopher Joye, Smarter Money Investments | 10-11-16 | More
  8. US election - the investment implications

    Investors should make no mistake. The key pillars of Trump's campaign are de-globalisation, higher fiscal spending, and protecting entitlements at current levels. What are the investment implications?

    Marko Papic, BCA Research | 10-11-16 | More
  9. Middle class matters

    Five years after the Euro crisis, it's not just Europe we’re concerned about from a populist perspective but also the US and UK. Why is this is a real risk for investors?

    Marko Papic, BCA Research | 02-11-16 | More
  10. Variable withdrawals improve retirement outcomes

    Variable withdrawal strategies for retirement spending are receiving more attention. Optimal asset allocations for such strategies are quite different to rules of thumb based on fixed withdrawal strategies.

    Joe Tomlinson, Tomlinson Financial Planning | 28-10-16 | More
  11. Toxic politics versus better economics

    Until recently, the expectation was that if professional economists achieved a technocratic consensus on a given policy approach, political leaders would listen.

    Mohamed El-Erian | 28-10-16 | More
  12. How much should we have in resource stocks?

    The Australian sharemarket’s high weight to resource stocks is an accident of history and geography. A lower than market cap weight to resource stocks in portfolios seems much more sensible.

    Tim Farrelly | 14-10-16 | More
  13. Using a "bond tent" to navigate the retirement danger zone

    Perhaps the best way to manage sequence of return risk in the years leading up to retirement and thereafter is simply to build up and then use a reserve of bonds to weather the storm.

    Michael Kitces | 07-10-16 | 2 comments | More
  14. Geopolitics and the consequences of choice

    The gravest geopolitical challenge is not terrorism, or the Middle East, or Brexit, but a possible eruption between China and the US, the world's two largest economies and militaries. It is always when the most powerful countries clash that the world is altered fundamentally.

    Stephen Kotkin, Princeton University | 30-09-16 | More
  15. The power and limitations of Monte Carlo simulations

    Predicting the future raises a significant number of issues when creating an investment plan. Monte Carlo simulations will illuminate the nature of that uncertainty, but only if those using them understand how it should be applied – and its limitations.

    David Blanchett, Morningstar & Wade Pfau, The American College | 28-09-16 | More
  16. The long and short of it - key takeouts

    Conference 2016 delivered 50+ high conviction ideas on how to manage the friction between short-term and long-term investing imperatives. Here are the key takeouts.

    Will Jackson | 01-09-16 | More
  17. 2016 Conference - Webcast

    Conference 2016 featured a stellar lineup of international and local experts offering their best high conviction idea/thesis around the the friction between short-term and long-term investing imperatives - and the portfolio construction decisions that must be made.

    30-08-16 | More
  18. Flexibility is key to goals-based strategies

    Individuals underestimate the degree to which their lives will change over the long-term, so how can practitioners build portfolios to meet clients' future needs?

    Michael Kitces | 25-08-16 | More
  19. All portfolios must have an active currency policy

    Investing offshore requires currency exposure. Currency impacts can wash out over time, but its tidal forces are strong and independent of a client's retirement time frame. Currency is both a risk and an investment opportunity.

    Dori Levanoni, First Quadrant | 25-08-16 | 0.50 CE | More
  20. You don't own enough global small caps

    Investors can harness the long-run benefits of active satellites like global small caps to drive better portfolio outcomes despite volatile markets.

    Rob Failla, Lazard Asset Management | 25-08-16 | 0.50 CE | More
  21. Mind the Gap: 2-3 years is the most fertile hunting ground

    With most market participants distracted by short-term noise or focused on mean reversion of long-term valuations, the gap in the middle is an under-researched and fertile hunting ground.

    David Millar, Invesco Perpetual | 25-08-16 | 0.50 CE | More
  22. Use centuries of investment wisdom in portfolios today

    For all the wisdom of four centuries of investing, not much has changed in financial markets. Boom and bust cycles still exist and speculation is higher than ever. But the Prudent Man Rule from 1830 can serve as a useful anchor for investors.

    Jan Sytze Mosselaar, Robeco | 25-08-16 | 0.50 CE | More
  23. Capital allocation is a (mostly) long-term game

    Longer-term assessments of risk and potential returns will always underpin the construction of multi-asset or diversified portfolios. However, context matters.

    Ian Patrick, Sunsuper | 25-08-16 | 0.25 CE | More
  24. Manager benchmarking is a pox on both investors and markets

    It seems sensible to make investment managers accountable by requiring them to perform relative to a benchmark. But this kind of motivation has a perverse effect.

    Ron Bird | 25-08-16 | 0.50 CE | More
  25. Long-term investing pays... if you can handle the pressure

    The benefits of long-term investing extend beyond just being able to invest in illiquid assets. Patience can pay its own dividend. The challenge is holding at bay the relentless pressures to respond and deliver over the short term.

    Geoff Warren, CIFR | 25-08-16 | 0.50 CE | More
  26. Panel: Geopolitics - East Asia and the US election

    This panel debated the high conviction thesis that the key geopolitical risk of the times is tension between China, the US and South East Asian countries, as well as the impact of the US election on markets.

    Panel | 25-08-16 | 0.25 CE | More
  27. Geopolitical risk? Ignore terrorism, focus on East Asia

    Geopolitical tensions between China, the US, and countries of South East Asia are growing. Most investors dismiss the region as a risk. But we are at a precipice of a left-tail risk event.

    Marko Papic, BCA Research | 25-08-16 | 0.25 CE | More
  28. Unfavourable candidates can be favourable for the US economy

    There has never been a more divisive US election season than the one we are witnessing right now. While the rhetoric and opinion polls are captivating on a weekly basis, the long game is what matters.

    Libby Cantrill, PIMCO | 25-08-16 | 0.50 CE | More
  29. This time is not different, we’re just predisposed to think so

    Markets are volatile and events are unprecedented – or at least that’s what we’re told and have been conditioned to believe. Times and markets are volatile, but they always have been and they always will be.

    Philippe Jordan, Capital Fund Management | 24-08-16 | 0.25 CE | More
  30. It is time to go long Australian banks

    Australian banks face a number of headwinds - they are real, but could better be described as zephyrs. The market has overreacted. Buy the banks.

    Tim Farrelly | 24-08-16 | 0.50 CE | More
  31. High returns with low risk is possible in a low/negative yield world

    It is possible to generate high returns with low risk irrespective of where short-term cash rates or long-term government bond yields may be.

    Christopher Joye, Smarter Money Investments | 24-08-16 | 0.50 CE | More
  32. SMSF portfolios need an asset allocation rethink

    Many SMSF portfolios are inefficient - creating an opportunity to either increase returns for the current level of risk or reduce risk to achieve existing returns over the shorter term.

    David Wanis, Schroders | 24-08-16 | 0.50 CE | More
  33. Investor time horizons impact infrastructure returns

    Listed and unlisted infrastructure investment are complimentary ways to access the same underlying cash flows. But varying investor time horizons impact the investment returns both targeted and achieved.

    Nick Langley | 24-08-16 | 0.50 CE | More
  34. Prudently managed, equities are an excellent income generator

    Increasing equity exposure for retirees does not have to be a daunting move. Breaking down the index shows that income and not capital has been doing the heavy lifting over the longer term.

    Jason Teh, Investors Mutual | 24-08-16 | 0.25 CE | More
  35. Headlines battle facts, but fundamentals will prevail

    As an investor, allowing yourself to be distracted by quick interpretation of market dynamics will lead to poor allocation decisions. Ultimately, fundamentals will win out for long-term investors.

    James Swanson, MFS Investment Management | 24-08-16 | 0.50 CE | More
  36. Long-term investing a fool's paradise

    Finance principles tell investors to buy good companies at attractive prices and they should perform over the long term. But what worked last century won't necessarily stand true this century.

    Sean Fenton, Tribeca Investment Partners | 24-08-16 | 0.25 CE | More
  37. Traditional asset allocation fails to capture long-term trends

    Rapid technological innovation, affordable communication, and demographic shifts are reshaping the world. The traditional country/regional approach to asset allocation is not optimal for capturing these new opportunities.

    Luis Oliveira, Capital Group | 24-08-16 | 0.50 CE | More
  38. Client expectations are rising - average is not an option

    Client solutions will require the use of both smarter passive and high conviction active strategies, allocated in a way to meet the needs of individuals.

    Martin Flanagan, Invesco | 24-08-16 | More
  39. Short-termism obscures long-term vision

    The long-term ambitions of investors and politicians are often thwarted by short-term pressures. The solution may comprise a combination of passive and high conviction alpha strategies.

    Geraldine Buckingham, BlackRock | 24-08-16 | More
  40. Purpose-driven portfolios perform better

    Many assume there is a trade-off between investing for financial returns and social impact. This is false and misleading. There is a synergy between profit and purpose.

    Andrew Kuper, LeapFrog Investments | 24-08-16 | 0.50 CE | More
  41. Commitment brings the best out of liquid alpha

    It remains possible to generate alpha from liquid strategies but investors must shift their focus away from short-term performance, and towards longer-term measurements of success.

    Carol Geremia | 24-08-16 | More
  42. The long and short of it

    Investing is supposed to be about the incremental replacement of human capital with financial capital over the long term. But today's environment and our behavioural biases conspire against such a pure case.

    Graham Rich, PortfolioConstruction Forum | 24-08-16 | 0.25 CE | More
  43. A revolution is underway in portfolio construction

    Rising liabilities and low expected returns are driving a greater focus on outcome-based strategies and factor investing.

    Ron O'Hanley, State Street Global Advisors | 22-08-16 | More
  44. The case for equities providing income in retirement

    Maintaining a solid level of income for the retiree must remain at the forefront of thinking and a move up the risk spectrum into equities provides a solution.

    Investors Mutual | 19-08-16 | More
  45. Backgrounder: The long and short of it

    Managing the fundamental friction between short-term and long-term investing imperatives is a key challenge when building portfolios. This Backgrounder explores some of the key concepts and debates.

    PortfolioConstruction Forum | 19-08-16 | More
  46. Improving the asset allocation of SMSF portfolios

    SMSF portfolios appear inefficient – creating an opportunity to either increase returns for the current level of risk or reduce risk for the existing return.

    David Wanis, Schroders | 19-08-16 | More
  47. Currency - the tail that wags the dog

    In portfolios with international exposure, there are times when currency returns dominate overall performance. This paper analyses the currency hedge decision from the perspective of an Australian investor with international exposure.

    J Ladekarl, D Levanoni & R Huo, First Quadrant | 18-08-16 | More
  48. 30 years - reflections on 10 attributes of great investors

    The world of investing and business has seen a great deal of change in the past 30 years. Investors face a slew of psychological challenges. Here are the 10 attributes I believe to be the hallmark of a great investor.

    Michael Mauboussin, Credit Suisse | 12-08-16 | More
  49. The fallacy behind investor versus fund returns

    It has become accepted, conventional wisdom that investors underperform their investments by timing those investments badly. But this new conventional wisdom must be debunked.

    Michael Edesess | 08-08-16 | 1 comment | More
  50. The end of history illusion and goals-based investing

    Research suggests that we have remarkably little insight into our future preferences. So a challenge of goals-based investing is that we save towards a goal that isn't what we want when the time comes.

    Michael Kitces | 05-08-16 | 0.25 CE | More
  51. Mind the gap

    Considering structural and cyclical drivers can help reveal investment opportunities, if an appropriate timeframe is defined. A two- to three-year period is an under researched view.

    Georgina Taylor & Danielle Singer, Invesco Perpetual | 05-08-16 | More
  52. Trump, Presidential powers and investment implications

    What are the investment implications of a potential Trump presidency? In the short term, we think it could be positive for equities and negative for bonds, but negative for US equities in the medium term.

    Marko Papic, BCA Research | 27-07-16 | More
  53. Inverted withdrawal rate approach

    Decumulation requires a tradeoff between preserving capital and obtaining income. A very simple "inverted withdraw rate" approach may be a better approach than the traditional 4% rule.

    John Walton, University of Texas | 18-07-16 | 0.50 CE | More
  54. A comment on BREXIT

    The reality is that Brexit will hurt everyone involved more than was admitted during the campaign. Investors should expect heightened volatility, not only of stocks, but even of government bonds.

    Woody Brock | 07-07-16 | More
  55. How do you measure which retirement income strategy is best?

    The "best" retirement income strategy may be very different depending on whether you measure based on wealth, spending, probabilities of success, magnitudes of failure, or utility functions that weigh both the upside and downside risks.

    Michael Kitces | 06-07-16 | 0.50 CE | 1 comment | More
  56. The coming EXITentialist crisis

    The Brexit referendum is a major break in the 70 years of European integration. What's next for the UK? Who is next to exit? What does this mean for broader global stability? And - most importantly - what are investment implications?

    Marko Papic, BCA Research | 27-06-16 | More
  57. The Australian equities X factor

    Everybody is an Australian equities expert, understandably so for those who live in Australia. But the X factor in Australian equities portfolios is concentration risk.

    Charlie Lanchester, BlackRock | 14-06-16 | More
  58. Challenges in building portfolios today (and what to do)

    The current investment environment is arguably one of the toughest ever in which to build portfolios that deliver return and are robust into the future. There are a range of approaches that can be taken.

    Dominic McCormick | 09-06-16 | 1 comment | More
  59. Setting a retirement spending policy

    Setting an appropriate spending level is one of the most crucial tasks for retirees. Spend too much and risk utter penury down the track. Be too conservative and the client spends their remaining years in unnecessary hardship.

    Tim Farrelly | 08-06-16 | 0.50 CE | More
  60. 10 "Gray Swans"

    By definition, Black Swans are unknowable - they should surprise us. But here are 10 "gray swans" complicating the outlook for markets and portfolio construction.

    Dan Farley, State Street Global Advisors | 03-06-16 | More
  61. 2016 Symposium - Resources Kit

    Symposium facilitates featured a stellar line up of 20 international and local experts - including special guest keynote, Professor Niall Ferguson, PhD, internationally renowned economic and financial historian - offering their expert, high conviction ideas to help build better quality investor portfolios.

    27-05-16 | More
  62. How to develop a robust retirement spending policy

    One of the most important decisions facing retirees is working out how much can be “safely” spent without the risk of exhausting capital. This session reviewed the different approaches to create a formal, written spending policy.

    Tim Farrelly | 18-05-16 | 0.75 CE | 3 comments | More
  63. How not to be blindsided by the retirement investment challenge

    Presented in a format that incorporates a game, this workshop explored the risk factors that drive retirement portfolio outcomes.

    John Valtwies & Manusha Samaraweera, PIMCO | 18-05-16 | 0.75 CE | More
  64. Today's risk profiling puts us all at risk

    Risk profiling is entirely broken. The key to understanding clients is in analysing their actions, not their words, or answers to a risk questionnaire.

    Bernard Del Rey, Capital Preferences | 18-05-16 | 0.50 CE | 4 comments | More
  65. Size does matter when investing in India's growth

    India’s demographic dividend creates a significant market opportunity for corporates operating within the ecosystem. But size really does matter, leading to the potential for unparalleled revenue growth.

    Mugunthan Siva, India Avenue Investment Management | 18-05-16 | 0.50 CE | More
  66. Right now inflation is the most important macro indicator

    Central bankers successfully tamed inflation in the late 1980s and early 1990s. Persistently low inflation is the new problem. With markets complacent about the inflation outlook, signs of inflation could create a scare.

    Christian Hawkesby, Harbour Asset Management | 18-05-16 | 0.50 CE | 2 comments | More
  67. Reach goals despite -ve rates

    Investors are slowly awakening to the threat that negative interest rates globally pose to their goals. Diversified funds need a higher mix of growth assets, and TAA should be applied.

    Paul Richardson, Mint Asset Management | 18-05-16 | 0.50 CE | More
  68. Currency is the ultimate alternative

    The currency exposure embedded in foreign equity portfolios exposes portfolios to a great deal of noise. Used productively, the opportunity it represents can be captured as the ultimate "alternative asset".

    Dori Levanoni, First Quadrant | 18-05-16 | 0.50 CE | 4 comments | More
  69. Think differently to find sustainable, secure sources of income

    US private market home loans – income producing, low credit risk, low volatility assets that can generate a stable flow of monthly income - are one of many opportunities to consider for portfolios.

    Adam Grotzinger, Neuberger Berman | 18-05-16 | 0.50 CE | More
  70. Key takeouts from Symposium 2016 day one - markets

    Each panelist outlined the high conviction idea they agreed with most from the prior day, and the portfolio construction implications. Then delegates worked in tables to determine the same.

    18-05-16 | 0.50 CE | More
  71. Symposium 2016 - The Great Debate

    Our Symposium 2016 Faculty debated two high conviction ideas from the first day's program - firstly, the idea that delegates agreed with most and then, the idea delegates disagreed with most.

    Symposium 2016 Great Debate Panel | 17-05-16 | 0.50 CE | More
  72. Don't believe what you hear – this is a high return environment

    While record low interest rates worldwide (negative in many countries) mean low returns on government bonds, it doesn't necessarily mean low returns across the board. This is not a time to be fearful.

    Tim Farrelly | 17-05-16 | 0.50 CE | More
  73. China’s rapid growth is unsustainable

    China's growth has become reliant on credit stimulus and a related property bubble. This is coming unstuck. The risks to the global economy and markets are significant.

    Sam Churchill, Magellan Asset Management | 17-05-16 | 0.50 CE | 2 comments | More
  74. In a period of sustained sluggishness, quality companies are key

    The tepid recovery from 2008's GFC has surprised almost everyone. Investing in this low growth world requires a very selective stock picking approach, and suggests focusing on value and quality.

    Hugh Giddy, Investors Mutual | 17-05-16 | 0.50 CE | More
  75. Quality is a critical factor in constructing portfolios

    Quality is a critical factor in constructing portfolios. The use of a modified Piotroski indicator as an indicator or screen for equities can significantly add to investment performance in NZ and Australia.

    Andrew Bascand, Harbour Asset Management | 17-05-16 | 0.50 CE | 2 comments | More
  76. The hidden consequences of low interest rates for portfolios

    If you see one cockroach, you haven't seen them all. That's a very important concept today for managing diversified portfolios. We see one cockroach – low interest rates, but what we don't see is the hidden consequences throughout portfolios.

    Simon Stevenson, Schroders | 17-05-16 | More
  77. Going negative - rethink investing in a world of low returns

    Nearly every investor is confronting the challenge of how to invest in a low growth, low return environment. Investors must rethink portfolio construction.

    David Fisher, PIMCO | 17-05-16 | 0.50 CE | More
  78. Time to sell/short beneficiaries of the US high yield debt bubble

    The extreme thirst for yield has pushed the US high yield debt cycle into unchartered territory. It is approaching shakeout - with long/short opportunities amongst the beneficiaries of the current cycle.

    Jacob Mitchell | 17-05-16 | 0.50 CE | 4 comments | More
  79. Ride the cycle but structural weakness will come to matter more

    Investors need to be wary that without much needed reform, structural weaknesses in many advanced and developing economies will be the ultimate determinant of longer-term returns.

    Bevan Graham, AMP Capital NZ | 17-05-16 | 0.50 CE | More
  80. Why Monte Carlo analysis is optimistically biased

    Monte Carlo analysis is the most common tool used to project portfolio values - yet it has an optimistic bias that sizeably underestimate required retirement savings.

    James Lear, Guideway Financial | 06-05-16 | 3 comments | More
  81. Eight core ideas to guide retirement income planning

    Retirement income planning is a relatively new field that differs from traditional wealth accumulation. Eight key ideas serve as a manifesto for my approach to retirement income planning.

    Wade D. Pfau, The American College | 20-04-16 | More
  82. ZIRP & NIRP - killing retirement as we know it

    Retirees and their pensions are being sacrificed for what now passes as "the greater good." ZIRP has created a massive problem for retirement savers and pension fund managers. NIRP will make their problem worse.

    John Mauldin, Mauldin Economics | 15-04-16 | More
  83. farrelly's Investment Strategy

    farrelly's Investment Strategy provides subscription and consulting tools and services to enable a dynamic, forward-looking approach to asset allocation, a key driver of quality portfolio construction and quality results for investors...

    Tim Farrelly | 14-04-16 | More
  84. Is that portfolio really diversified?

    Even multi-asset-class portfolios aren't always really diversified. Being properly diversified means always having to say you're sorry about some investment that's not moving in the same direction as the rest.

    Michael Kitces | 06-04-16 | More
  85. A global (quant) perspective on the Australian equities market

    One might argue that Australia's high dividend yield, currently lower PE Ratio and generally smaller companies means the Australian equity market behaves like a global small cap with a value style tilt. Is that true?

    Michael Furey | 31-03-16 | 0.25 CE | 1 comment | More
  86. Managing sequencing risk & retirement date risk

    Sequencing risk is just as relevant for accumulators as it is retirees. Decreasing growth asset exposures in the lead up to retirement may be a very appealing risk management strategy.

    Michael Kitces | 18-03-16 | 0.50 CE | 4 comments | More
  87. Reduce volatility to reduce sequencing risk?

    We're often told that the answer to managing sequencing risk lies in locking into low volatility, low return strategies. It’s nuts and you can clearly see it’s nuts!

    Tim Farrelly | 17-03-16 | 17 comments | More
  88. Finology Summit 2016 - key takeouts

    Delegates determined their key takeouts from the day's program, and actions to take to further improve the way they relate with individual investors - and/or help others who must do so.

    Graham Rich, PortfolioConstruction Forum | 17-02-16 | 0.25 CE | More
  89. How to accelerate trust using response skills

    The conventional tactics of asking questions to gain trust during client meetings are based on faulty and outdated assumptions. Five conversational recipes are needed to achieve a trust trifecta.

    Dr David Lazenby, PortfolioConstruction Forum | 17-02-16 | 1.00 CE | More
  90. How game theory creates deeper client understanding

    Use clients' choices to recover both their true preferences and their financial sophistication and the impact of complexity on client decision-making.

    Dan Silverman, Capital Preferences | 17-02-16 | 1.00 CE | More
  91. How advice is central to delivering retirement confidence

    State Street's 2015 Retirement Survey interviewed 1200 Australians, to understand the psychology of Australian retirees and the opportunity to engage and boost confidence.

    Jonathan Shead, State Street Global Advisors | 17-02-16 | 0.50 CE | More
  92. How to identify retirement resources that matter

    It's a sad fact that not everyone adjusts well to retirement. It's estimated that about one third of retirees have problems adapting after leaving full time work. So why do some people fail to adapt? A Dynamic Resource Model provides a potential solution.

    Joanne Earl | 17-02-16 | 1.00 CE | More
  93. How finology can minimise delays in client decisions

    Research in finology, neurology and psychology consistently reveal that our decisions are disrupted by an array of biases and irrationalities. Merely being aware of these shortcomings doesn’t fix the problem. The real question is ‘how can we do better?’

    Dr David Lazenby, PortfolioConstruction Forum | 17-02-16 | 1.25 CE | More
  94. Markets Summit 2016 - The Great Debate

    The three motions put by our independent economists for Markets Summit 2016 were 1. Capitalism and globalisation will not survive the next GFC; 2. The markets are overreacting in particular to the outlook for China’s economy and currency, and the prospects for financials; 3. You should protect your positions this year by buying risk overlays.

    Markets Summit 2016 Great Debate Panel | 16-02-16 | 1.00 CE | More
  95. Ready for a record-length US recovery

    This is not deja-vu all over again. This recovery is still middle aged and has years to go. Equity markets continue to be attractive on their own merits and especially relative to fixed income.

    Ronald Temple | 16-02-16 | 0.50 CE | 2 comments | More
  96. Old fears in emerging markets are masking new opportunities

    It's true that the past few years have been challenging for emerging markets as a whole. But not all emerging economies are equal, and uneven prospects are driving compelling return differences. Investors should have them back on their radars.

    David Holstein, Capital Group | 16-02-16 | 0.50 CE | More
  97. It's the end of EU-rope as we know it

    The EU has been in crisis for many years. You ain't seen nothing yet! 2016 will change the nature of the EU – and it might well signify deja-vu, the end of Europe's process of political and economic integration.

    Oliver Hartwich, The New Zealand Initiative | 16-02-16 | 0.50 CE | More
  98. There's nowhere to run, nowhere to hide... but plenty of risks

    Today, there are no clearly diversifying mainstream assets. All assets are expensive and what seems safe may hold the greatest risk. We need to set realistic expectations and invest only of the basis of genuine insight.

    Susan Gosling | 16-02-16 | 0.50 CE | 3 comments | More
  99. The resources cycle is getting closer to the bottom

    In a cyclical sector like commodity, deja-vu abounds for those with a long memory. As the outlook improves, equities usually rally before commodity prices, responding to improved demand forecasts.

    Dr Joanne Warner, Colonial First State Global Asset Management | 16-02-16 | 0.50 CE | 2 comments | More
  100. Australia is the land of complacent oligopolies

    Australian equity investors should look beyond the largest blue chip stocks in the financial, resources and telecommunications sectors – to industrial companies that are better positioned for growth.

    Madeleine Beaumont, BlackRock | 16-02-16 | 0.50 CE | More
  101. The Eurozone is an economic calamity

    Investment in "peripheral" Europe is a high-risk proposition. Much has changed, but nothing has changed! Yes, the eurozone is an economic calamity.

    Bruce Campbell, Pyrford International | 16-02-16 | 0.50 CE | 2 comments | More
  102. Don’t catch a falling knife - avoid high yield and EM bonds

    The market continues to misprice the risk of large scale defaults and debt restructures. Now is the time to sell high yield and EM bonds exposure, while you still can.

    Vimal Gor, BT Investment Management | 16-02-16 | 0.50 CE | More
  103. This is anything but a new paradigm

    Growing wealth and managing risk is a considerably more complex challenge than it was a decade ago. Excellence in asset allocation and implementation are more important than ever before.

    Matthew Sherwood, Perpetual Investments | 16-02-16 | 0.50 CE | 3 comments | More
  104. The ASX's future is past

    The Australian equity market will continue to underwhelm going forward. Investors need an equally-weighted approach to returns that places far less emphasis on commodities and banking.

    Joe Bracken, Tempo Asset Management | 16-02-16 | 0.50 CE | More
  105. Demographic shifts are polarising investment opportunities

    We are at an inflection point where the global dependency ratio is becoming adverse. This will lead to profound changes to the composition of the population around the world, polarising investment opportunities.

    Aneta Wynimko, Fidelity International | 16-02-16 | 0.50 CE | 2 comments | More
  106. Sell/short the beneficiaries of the US high yield debt bubble now

    The extreme thirst for yield has pushed the US high yield cycle into unchartered territory. In a clear case of déjà vu (replace "subprime" for "high yield"), the cycle has reached the shakeout phase.

    Jacob Mitchell | 16-02-16 | 0.50 CE | More
  107. Investment grade credit - income without destroying capital

    It's possible to have your cake and eat it too. Global investment grade credit has not been this attractive in spread terms for the past six years.

    Robert Mead, PIMCO | 16-02-16 | 0.50 CE | 2 comments | More
  108. Investment lessons from Japan

    Often in markets, you do get the feeling that somehow we've been here before. But things are never quite the same. Looking at some examples from the past, particularly Japan, we can see what can we learn and apply to our investment decisions going forward.

    Tim Farrelly | 16-02-16 | 8 comments | More
  109. China is falling into the middle income trap

    As China's economy slows and policymakers struggle, economic friction is mounting. Without drastic reforms, China will find it difficult to avoid the middle income trap.

    Alex Wolf | 16-02-16 | 0.50 CE | 4 comments | More
  110. China contagion is driven more by sentiment than fundamental

    China's Black Monday renewed investor concerns about a hard landing. It is critical to assess the macroeconomic and market scenarios of a China hard landing and the impact on investors' portfolios.

    Oleg Ruban, MSCI | 16-02-16 | 0.50 CE | More
  111. Fasten your seatbelt for a volatile 2016

    Debt levels are too high (deja-vu!). Until now, QE has softened the impact. With consensus perceiving the Fed to return to normal (?), markets are entering unchartered waters - 2016 is set to be a volatile year.

    Brett Lewthwaite, Macquarie Investment Management | 16-02-16 | 0.50 CE | 2 comments | More
  112. 2015 a year to forget, 2016 not the year to forgive

    For all its ups and down, 2015 ended up being a year to forget for Australian investors, with little variation in the performance of major asset classes. The coming year will be a rerun of this theme. Dynamic allocation within portfolios and additional levels of diversification will be critical for 2016 to avoid the feeling of deja-vu.

    Kerry Craig, JP Morgan Asset Management | 16-02-16 | 0.50 CE | More
  113. The distorted reality is unwinding

    The Fed has begun its interest rate tightening, and deja-vu - there continues to be a great disagreement about the quantum of the rises. Rates will go higher than most expect and QT will impact on financial asset volatility.

    Hamish Douglass, Magellan Financial Group | 16-02-16 | 0.50 CE | More
  114. Debt cycles don't repeat themselves - but this one rhymes

    A 50-year era of inflation is ending and we are left no inflation, little growth and too much debt. China's slowdown and the current oil glut are early signs that this debt bubble may end badly.

    Robert Gay | 16-02-16 | 0.50 CE | 4 comments | More
  115. Is it deja-vu (all over again)?

    Does it feel like we've been here before? The more things change, the more they seem to stay the same! Does that mean that, going forward, markets and asset classes will behave as in the past? Is it deja-vu (all over again)?

    Graham Rich, PortfolioConstruction Forum | 16-02-16 | 0.50 CE | More
  116. Is it deja-vu 2008?

    Many people have written to me in recent months and asked whether I believe this is yet another 2008. In my view, there are many significant differences. But I'm afraid we're set for some extreme volatility in the months, if not the years, ahead.

    Jonathan Pain | 16-02-16 | More
  117. Countries don't matter?

    For a number of years, many fund managers have maintained that country and regional analysis are no basis for making asset allocation decisions. It's nuts and you can clearly see it's nuts.

    Tim Farrelly | 15-02-16 | More
  118. The case for gold resurrected

    When central banks are taking to extreme policies, and Donald Trump has a decent chance of being US President, we need to be prepared for anything. Gold may not be the perfect hedge, but what is?

    Dominic McCormick | 04-02-16 | More
  119. Jewels may outperform tools

    It seems that the markets are indicating that we have entered a period in which jewels (gold) will outperform tools (stocks). Try as we may (we are no gold-bugs), we struggle to find reasons to discard the market's message.

    Louis-Vincent Gave, GaveKal | 03-02-16 | More
  120. 2015 was a year to forget, 2016 won't be a year to forgive

    For all its ups and down, 2015 ended up being a year to forget for Australian investors, with little variation in the performance of major asset classes. Dynamic allocation within portfolios and additional levels of diversification will be critical for 2016 to avoid the feeling of deja-vu.

    Kerry Craig, JP Morgan Asset Management | 02-02-16 | More
  121. More from your core

    Core assets - Australian equities, global equities, and fixed income - are going to generate pretty lacklustre returns this year. Having as efficient a portfolio as possible is going to be really key to your return success.

    Kevin Anderson, State Street Global Advisors | 01-02-16 | More
  122. Stress testing a China hard landing

    As global economic uncertainty persists in the markets, a coherent and structured approach to assess macroeconomic and market scenarios and their impact on investors’ portfolios becomes critical.

    MSCI | 31-01-16 | More
  123. Annus Horribilis 2016

    2016 has started poorly for the global economy - and horribly for markets. A number of negative themes are ascendant, whereas the positive ones are either pausing or petering out.

    Marko Papic, BCA Research | 21-01-16 | More
  124. Here comes Daddy bear

    For the last few months, I've been concerned that a bear market was likely to unfold. We are now on such a trajectory. History suggests that such episodes come in two distinct extremes.

    Charles Gave, GaveKal | 21-01-16 | More