Forum Fodder

Portfolio Construction Forum | 13 May 2022

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The Portfolio Construction Forum team



Forum Fodder | Friday 13 May 2022

“I wouldn’t characterise [stablecoins] at this scale as a real threat to financial stability, but they’re growing very rapidly and they present the same kind of risks that we have known for centuries in connection with bank runs.” - Janet Yellen, US treasury secretary (12 May 2022).

All the best for another week’s continuing education!
P.S. Mark your Diary! Inv Mgmt Research College Research Symposium | AEST 10am-12.30pm Fri 03 Jun (webinar) - registration opens Monday - featuring:
- Free and fair global markets require shared values - Rana Foroohar, FT columnist and CNN global economic analyst (New York)
- Today’s market requires an alternative course of action - Tony Davidow, CIMA®, T. Davidow Consulting (New York)
- We can harness neuroscientific insights to generate alpha - Elise Payzan-LeNestour, PhD, Scientia Associate Professor, UNSW (Sydney)
- We must invest with a multi-factor mindset - Michael Furey, CIMA®, MD, Delta Factors & Advisory (Sydney)



Good inflation news from the bond market
As of 6 May, the bond market expected US consumer price inflation to average 2.5% between five and 10 years from now. So why does Kenneth Rogoff of Harvard University argue “things are way out of control”?
J. Bradford DeLong, University of California, Berkeley | Read


Research Review: Hindsight bias and investing
Hindsight can be a valuable source of learning. However, hindsight is undermined by a range of factors and hindsight bias clouds judgments in all areas of life - including investing.
Rob Hamshar, Portfolio Construction Forum | 2.00 CE | Read

Markets | As seen at Markets Summit 2022

There are no steady states so focus on long-term change
Is there such a thing as normal? Steady states are becoming increasingly rare, the belief in ‘reversion to the mean’ is less relevant than ever and, ultimately, investors are better placed focusing long-term change.
Robert Wilson, Baillie Gifford | 0.25 CE | Watch, Listen

Markets | As seen at Markets Summit 2022

Sustainable dividend growth outperforms over the long-term
Over the long-term, dividend growth and dividend yield are the dominant sources of long-term return. Valuation’s importance recedes over time. Sustainable dividend growth companies appear to play defence well.
David Keir, Dundas Global Investors | 0.25 CE | Watch, Listen

Markets | As seen at Markets Summit 2022

Private debt is the best all-weather defensive strategy
A great attack scores points, but defence wins premierships. The same principal applies to investment portfolios. By making private debt the centre of a defensive strategy, investors can win in all conditions.
Andrew Lockhart, Metrics Credit Partners | 0.50 CE | Watch, Listen

Philosophy | Portfolio Construction Forum proudly supports The Wayside Chapel

Living the response
Life by the Wayside is about being response-able, yet we never have any idea of what is coming next. And we don’t always get to see what goes on in the lives of the people who come to us, after they have left. So when we do, it’s something that lifts us all up.
Jon Owen, Wayside Chapel | Read

Finology | Invitation to investment advisers

Complimentary self-assessment to benchmark your Client Care & Practice knowledge and skills
FASEA requires that financial advisers continually improve their client care and practice knowledge and skills - doing so makes obvious business sense, as well. Our new Finology Benchmarking Indices (FBI) self assessment tool helps you benchmark your investing biases, beliefs and behaviours versus peers, to further empower your “client care and practice” knowledge and skills. It’s complimentary to our members who give investment advice, while we continue to develop it.
Portfolio Construction Forum | 0.50 CE | Take the FBI self-assessment



The other side of the mountain - Protecting capital in a new economic regime
AEST 4.30pm-5.15pm, Tue 17 May 2022
Economic conditions of the last few decades have supported a long ascent in the majority of asset prices. Investors must now confront conditions alien to most, potentially leading to a more painful descent. In this webinar, Ruffer’s economist, Jamie Dannhauser will discuss the apparent “Sophie’s choice” facing central banks – recession or stagflation – and how the economy is evolving in the midst of renewed geopolitical crises. The other side of the market mountain is fraught with risk and prone to avalanches. As we pass the peak in asset prices, we’ll consider how investors can prepare portfolios for the descent.
Ruffer | 0.75 CE | Register now!



The growing threat of global recession
The risks of a global recession trifecta are rising by the day. I am not sure politicians and policymakers are up to the task they may soon confront.
Professor Kenneth Rogoff, Harvard University | Read


Spotlight on gold
Gold has fascinated investors and analysts for decades. But it is a poor hedge against inflation over meaningful time horizons, and it is close to its highest real price in 800 years.
Tim Farrelly, farrelly’s Investment Strategy | Read

Philosophy | Strategies

The case for and against moving beyond the 60/40 portfolio
For many decades, the default investment portfolio was a 60/40 split – this was seen as the ideal blend of growth and defensive investments for most investors most of the time. Will it continue to deliver in a high inflation, high interest rate environment?
Tony Davidow, Davidow Consulting & Sue Dahn, Pitcher Partners | 0.50 CE | Read

Markets | As seen at Markets Summit 2022

PE to outperform in 2022 and most of you will miss out
Although traditional barriers to participation in PE are fading, PE remains on the bench for many individual investors. With an end to easy value creation and challenging conditions ahead, don’t miss out on PE outperformance in 2022.
Martin Cox, Milford Asset Management | 0.50 CE | Watch, Listen

Markets | As seen at Markets Summit 2022

Climate change risk factors are changing asset valuations
The next decade of decarbonisation is the decade of opportunity to de-risk portfolios and identify green investments. Climate change risk factors are changing asset valuations. Key to success is the need for portfolios to account for climate change risk or risk being obsolete.
Michael Salvatico, S&P Global Sustainable 1 | 0.25 CE | Watch, Listen


Downside risks to global growth
The predictable downward revision cycle for the global economic outlook has officially begun. The revision by the IMF, largely in response to the war in Ukraine, is a big one…
Stephen Roach, Yale University | Read

Markets | Investing | As seen at Markets Summit 2022

Now may be the time to consider CRE debt
Record low interest rates have fundamentally changed the playbook for income investors. With banks withdrawing from the CRE debt market, other lenders have greater opportunity.
Nick Bullick, Qualitas | 0.25 CE | Watch, Listen

Markets | As seen at Markets Summit 2022

The odds aren’t favouring froth
Inflection points in inflation, interest rates and the large-scale monetary distortion of recent decades suggest the future will not repeat the same playbook as recent decades.
Martin Conlon, Schroders | 0.50 CE | Watch, Listen

Markets | As seen at Markets Summit 2022

Rising rates will bring back discipline to market valuations
Rising interest rates will create casualties and collateral damage in asset prices, but will bring back market discipline, requiring a rethink of what “defensive” even means.
Richard Quin, Bentham Asset Management | 0.50 CE | Watch, Listen

Markets | As seen at Markets Summit 2022

Growth managers that lack energy may be left out in the cold
Investors shouldn’t overlook the potential benefits of focusing on companies in the energy sector. It looks like what’s “old” will be “new” again.
Rajiv Jain, GQG Partners | 0.50 CE | Watch, Listen


Forum CE Library - over 660 CE/CPD hours
Complimentary for all Forum members, the Forum’s online on-demand CE Library offers over 660 CE/CPD hours of accredited learning resources, to help members meet the CE/CPD requirements of 20 governing bodies (regulators, associations, and institutes) including ASIC, APRA, FASEA, FMA, AFA, FPA and CIMA® CE/CPD requirements, to name a few.
Earn CE/CPD hours

Forum CIMA CE Library - over 125 CE hours
This subset of our full CE Library features just those learning resources that are accredited for CIMA CE hours, so CIMA certificants can more easily find learning resources to meet their recertification obligation (at the same time as meeting the CE/CPD requirements of other governing bodies e.g. ASIC, APRA, FASEA, FMA, etc).
Earn CIMA CE hours


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What's new with our live and on-demand continuing education, accreditation and certification programs.

Led by behavioural finance expert, Herman Brodie, the Behavioural Finance - Investment Decision-Making course will help you identify, analyse and evaluate the principal human preferences that influence decision-making in situations of uncertainty, so you can recognise and identify these preferences in others, to improve investment decision-making.