Forum Fodder

Forum Fodder | Friday 27 May 2022

“The invasion [of Ukraine] may have been the beginning of the third world war and our civilisation may not survive it.” - George Soros in a speech to the World Economic Forum in Davos (25 May 2022)

All the best for another week’s continuing education!
Graham
P.S. Register now for Portfolio Construction Forum Research Symposium, AEST 10am-12.30pm, Friday 03 June via Zoom and earn 2.50 CE/CPD hours. The program features economic analyst and FT columnist, Rana Foroohar (New York), consultant Tony Davidow, CIMA^® (New York), UNSW academics Elise Payzan-LeNestour, PhD (Sydney) and James Doran, PhD, and independent consultant, Michael Furey, CIMA^® (Brisbane) exploring four distinct contemporary investment research issues. More info

Markets

Don’t bet on a soft landing
Simply put, the effort to fight inflation could easily crash the economy, markets, or both. The historical evidence shows that a soft landing is highly improbable. A recession in the next two years is likely.
Nouriel Roubini, Roubini Macro Associates | Read

Markets | Strategies

Rising yields are changing the game for investors
Since I addressed Markets Summit 2022 back on 23 February, arguing it was time for a new investing playbook, there has been a major repricing in financial assets. The adjustment has further to run.
Ronald Temple, Lazard Asset Management | Watch, Listen

Markets | Strategies

The stagflation threat is growing
Since I addressed Markets Summit 2022 back on 23 February, arguing “The days of abnormal monetary policy are over”, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has triggered a food and energy crisis while declining consumer sentiment and Chinese lockdowns provide headwinds to growth.
Jonathan Pain, The Pain Report | Watch, Listen

Strategies | Investing

Spotlight on active management
The arguments for and against active and passive investment management are much more nuanced than is often suggested by proponents on either side.
Tim Farrelly, farrelly’s Investment Strategy | Read

Philosophy | Strategies

Endowment-style investing is as relevant as ever
With stock market valuations close to record highs, and interest rates beginning to rise from all-time lows, traditional portfolios are likely to disappoint in the years ahead.
Thomas Weber, LGT Capital Partners | 0.25 CE | Read, Watch, Listen

Philosophy | Portfolio Construction Forum proudly supports The Wayside Chapel

Anonymous angels
Our words create our worlds, and sadly, the English language can rob us of the richness and depth that our lives are imbued with…
Jon Owen, Wayside Chapel | Read

Finology | Invitation to investment advisers

Complimentary self-assessment to benchmark your Client Care & Practice knowledge and skills
FASEA requires that financial advisers continually improve their client care and practice knowledge and skills - doing so makes obvious business sense, as well. Our new Finology Benchmarking Indices (FBI) self assessment tool helps you benchmark your investing biases, beliefs and behaviours versus peers, to further empower your “client care and practice” knowledge and skills. It’s complimentary to our members who give investment advice, while we continue to develop it.
Portfolio Construction Forum | 0.50 CE | Take the FBI self-assessment

Markets | Strategies | Investing | Finology

Portfolio Construction Forum Research Symposium June 2022
AEST 10.00am-12.30pm, Friday 03 June 2021 | Zoominar
Portfolio Construction Forum Research Symposium explores contemporary investment research issues relevant to Practitioners who design, build and/or manage multi-asset, multi-manager portfolios. Supported by CIMA Society and presented in June and November each year, the program features academics from leading university business schools, independent consultants, and portfolio construction practitioners. Our 03 June 2022 program features economic analyst and FT columnist, Rana Foroohar (New York), consultant Tony Davidow, CIMA® (New York), UNSW academics Elise Payzan-LeNestour, PhD (Sydney) and James Doran, PhD (Boulder) and independent consultant, Michael Furey, CIMA® (Brisbane), presenting on four distinct investment research issues.
Attendance is complimentary for Practitioners | 2.50 CE | Register now!

Markets

Good inflation news from the bond market
As of 6 May, the bond market expected US consumer price inflation to average 2.5% between five and 10 years from now. So why does Kenneth Rogoff of Harvard University argue “things are way out of control”?
J. Bradford DeLong, University of California, Berkeley | Read

Finology

Research Review: Hindsight bias and investing
Hindsight can be a valuable source of learning. However, hindsight is undermined by a range of factors and hindsight bias clouds judgments in all areas of life - including investing.
Rob Hamshar, Portfolio Construction Forum | 2.00 CE | Read

Markets | As seen at Markets Summit 2022

There are no steady states so focus on long-term change
Is there such a thing as normal? Steady states are becoming increasingly rare, the belief in ‘reversion to the mean’ is less relevant than ever and, ultimately, investors are better placed focusing long-term change.
Robert Wilson, Baillie Gifford | 0.25 CE | Watch, Listen

Markets | As seen at Markets Summit 2022

Sustainable dividend growth outperforms over the long-term
Over the long-term, dividend growth and dividend yield are the dominant sources of long-term return. Valuation’s importance recedes over time. Sustainable dividend growth companies appear to play defence well.
David Keir, Dundas Global Investors | 0.25 CE | Watch, Listen

Markets | As seen at Markets Summit 2022

Private debt is the best all-weather defensive strategy
A great attack scores points, but defence wins premierships. The same principal applies to investment portfolios. By making private debt the centre of a defensive strategy, investors can win in all conditions.
Andrew Lockhart, Metrics Credit Partners | 0.50 CE | Watch, Listen

Markets

The growing threat of global recession
The risks of a global recession trifecta are rising by the day. I am not sure politicians and policymakers are up to the task they may soon confront.
Professor Kenneth Rogoff, Harvard University | Read

Markets

Spotlight on gold
Gold has fascinated investors and analysts for decades. But it is a poor hedge against inflation over meaningful time horizons, and it is close to its highest real price in 800 years.
Tim Farrelly, farrelly’s Investment Strategy | Read

Philosophy | Strategies

The case for and against moving beyond the 60/40 portfolio
For many decades, the default investment portfolio was a 60/40 split – this was seen as the ideal blend of growth and defensive investments for most investors most of the time. Will it continue to deliver in a high inflation, high interest rate environment?
Tony Davidow, Davidow Consulting & Sue Dahn, Pitcher Partners | 0.50 CE | Read

Markets | As seen at Markets Summit 2022

PE to outperform in 2022 and most of you will miss out
Although traditional barriers to participation in PE are fading, PE remains on the bench for many individual investors. With an end to easy value creation and challenging conditions ahead, don’t miss out on PE outperformance in 2022.
Martin Cox, Milford Asset Management | 0.50 CE | Watch, Listen

Markets | As seen at Markets Summit 2022

Climate change risk factors are changing asset valuations
The next decade of decarbonisation is the decade of opportunity to de-risk portfolios and identify green investments. Climate change risk factors are changing asset valuations. Key to success is the need for portfolios to account for climate change risk or risk being obsolete.
Michael Salvatico, S&P Global Sustainable 1 | 0.25 CE | Watch, Listen

Forum CE Library - over 660 CE/CPD hours
Complimentary for all Forum members, the Forum’s online on-demand CE Library offers over 660 CE/CPD hours of accredited learning resources, to help members meet the CE/CPD requirements of 20 governing bodies (regulators, associations, and institutes) including ASIC, APRA, FASEA, FMA, AFA, FPA and CIMA^® CE/CPD requirements, to name a few.
Earn CE/CPD hours

Forum CIMA CE Library - over 125 CE hours
This subset of our full CE Library features just those learning resources that are accredited for CIMA CE hours, so CIMA certificants can more easily find learning resources to meet their recertification obligation (at the same time as meeting the CE/CPD requirements of other governing bodies e.g. ASIC, APRA, FASEA, FMA, etc).
Earn CIMA CE hours

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