Forum Fodder

Forum Fodder | Friday 17 June 2022

“Tell me what has happened, historically, when interest rates, the US dollar and oil have risen sharply? Earnings have declined. Every time. A few months ago I said that we were soon to see an avalanche of downgrades to earnings. I have not changed my mind.” - Jonathan Pain, author of The Pain Report (14 Jun 2022).

All the best for another week’s continuing education!
Graham
P.S. Mark Your Diary! Finology Masterclass AEST 10am-12.30pm Fri 15 Jul (webinar) - Exploring contemporary investment philosophy and finology issues. Registration opens Monday!
P.P.S. Register now! Portfolio Construction Forum Strategies Conference 2022 - The future ain’t what it used to be! Wednesday & Thursday 17 & 18 Aug 2022. Join us in person at our live studio (Sydney), at a live site with a group or via live stream at your desk. Find out more and register

Markets | As seen at Research Symposium June 2022

Free and fair global markets require shared values
As policymakers begin to craft a new Bretton Woods, and seek to embed the values that liberal democracies want to uphold, practitioners must understand the implications for portfolios.
Rana Foroohar, Financial Times & CNN | 0.50 CE | Watch, Listen

Markets

Stagflation is coming!
We may indeed be in for a shortish period of high inflation and low growth - but as to this leading to 1980s-style stagflation? It’s nuts and you can clearly see it’s nuts!
Tim Farrelly, farrelly’s Investment Strategy | Read

Strategies | As seen at Research Symposium June 2022

Today’s market requires an alternative course of action
The next 10 years are likely to be dramatically different than the last 10 years, and investors will need allocations to alternative investments in this challenging environment.
Tony Davidow, T. Davidow Consulting | 0.50 CE | Watch, Listen

Investing | As seen at Research Symposium June 2022

We must invest with a multi-factor mindset
We must take a multi-factor approach to analysing funds – including ESG, Quality, Size, amongst others – to ensure portfolios reflect the investor’s longer-term philosophy and/or shorter term views.
Michael Furey, Delta Research & Advisory | 0.50 CE | Watch, Listen

Finology | As seen at Research Symposium June 2022

We can harness neuroscientific insights to generate alpha
Prolonged exposure to high volatility causes investors to subsequently underestimate volatility (and vice versa), leading to predictability in stock returns - and the ability to construct a trading strategy that exploits the effect.
Elise Payzan-LeNestour and James Doran, UNSW | 0.50 CE | Watch, Listen

Philosophy | Portfolio Construction Forum proudly supports The Wayside Chapel

Unbroken lines
Last week, a nervous young man who was a newcomer joined the circle. He had quite a prominent stammer but wanted to sing, something he had never done in his life. The room almost fell silent as he belted out a wonderful, unbroken tune, much to the amazement of not only everyone present, but also to himself.
Jon Owen, Wayside Chapel | Read

Finology | Invitation to investment advisers

Complimentary self-assessment to benchmark your Client Care & Practice knowledge and skills
FASEA requires that financial advisers continually improve their client care and practice knowledge and skills - doing so makes obvious business sense, as well. Our new Finology Benchmarking Indices (FBI) self assessment tool helps you benchmark your investing biases, beliefs and behaviours versus peers, to further empower your “client care and practice” knowledge and skills. It’s complimentary to our members who give investment advice, while we continue to develop it.
Portfolio Construction Forum | 0.50 CE | Take the FBI self-assessment

Markets | Strategies | Investing | Philosophy | Finology

Strategies Conference 2022 “The future ain’t what it used to be!”
AEST Wed & Thu, 17 & 18 Aug 2022
Strategies Conference 2022 will challenge and refresh your portfolio construction thinking, as we debate investment strategies to help you build better quality investor portfolios given the future ain’t what it used to be!
Rarely, a crisis – or combination of crises – heralds a sea-change in global affairs. Such regime shifts reverberate through societies and economies. Back in 2020, Strategies Conference explored the idea that we were entering “a whole new world” due to Covid-19, and debated what that meant for building quality investor portfolios. At the time, not everyone agreed that it was a whole new world. Two years on, more major crises have unfolded, and the new global regime is coming into sharper focus. Times have changed!
The deflationary benefits of globalisation have run their course and deglobalisation is on the rise. Simultaneously, the decades-long disinflationary regime has turned to inflation, and interest rates are on the rise again in many countries for the first time in years. Constructing quality multi-asset, multi-manager portfolios capable of meeting client goals in the years ahead is going to be more challenging than over the past 30 years. Understanding the profound societal and economic changes that are underway and their investment implications is vital.
Join us in person at our live studio, a live site, or via live stream | 14+ CE | Register now!

Markets

Don’t bet on a soft landing
Simply put, the effort to fight inflation could easily crash the economy, markets, or both. The historical evidence shows that a soft landing is highly improbable. A recession in the next two years is likely.
Nouriel Roubini, Roubini Macro Associates | Read

Markets | Strategies

Rising yields are changing the game for investors
Since I addressed Markets Summit 2022 back on 23 February, arguing it was time for a new investing playbook, there has been a major repricing in financial assets. The adjustment has further to run.
Ronald Temple, Lazard Asset Management | Watch, Listen

Markets | Strategies

The stagflation threat is growing
Since I addressed Markets Summit 2022 back on 23 February, arguing “The days of abnormal monetary policy are over”, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has triggered a food and energy crisis while declining consumer sentiment and Chinese lockdowns provide headwinds to growth.
Jonathan Pain, The Pain Report | Watch, Listen

Strategies | Investing

Spotlight on active management
The arguments for and against active and passive investment management are much more nuanced than is often suggested by proponents on either side.
Tim Farrelly, farrelly’s Investment Strategy | Read

Philosophy | Strategies

Endowment-style investing is as relevant as ever
With stock market valuations close to record highs, and interest rates beginning to rise from all-time lows, traditional portfolios are likely to disappoint in the years ahead.
Thomas Weber, LGT Capital Partners | 0.25 CE | Read, Watch, Listen

Markets

Good inflation news from the bond market
As of 6 May, the bond market expected US consumer price inflation to average 2.5% between five and 10 years from now. So why does Kenneth Rogoff of Harvard University argue “things are way out of control”?
J. Bradford DeLong, University of California, Berkeley | Read

Finology

Research Review: Hindsight bias and investing
Hindsight can be a valuable source of learning. However, hindsight is undermined by a range of factors and hindsight bias clouds judgments in all areas of life - including investing.
Rob Hamshar, Portfolio Construction Forum | 2.00 CE | Read

Markets | As seen at Markets Summit 2022

There are no steady states so focus on long-term change
Is there such a thing as normal? Steady states are becoming increasingly rare, the belief in ‘reversion to the mean’ is less relevant than ever and, ultimately, investors are better placed focusing long-term change.
Robert Wilson, Baillie Gifford | 0.25 CE | Watch, Listen

Markets | As seen at Markets Summit 2022

Sustainable dividend growth outperforms over the long-term
Over the long-term, dividend growth and dividend yield are the dominant sources of long-term return. Valuation’s importance recedes over time. Sustainable dividend growth companies appear to play defence well.
David Keir, Dundas Global Investors | 0.25 CE | Watch, Listen

Markets | As seen at Markets Summit 2022

Private debt is the best all-weather defensive strategy
A great attack scores points, but defence wins premierships. The same principal applies to investment portfolios. By making private debt the centre of a defensive strategy, investors can win in all conditions.
Andrew Lockhart, Metrics Credit Partners | 0.50 CE | Watch, Listen

Forum CE Library - over 660 CE/CPD hours
Complimentary for all Forum members, the Forum’s online on-demand CE Library offers over 660 CE/CPD hours of accredited learning resources, to help members meet the CE/CPD requirements of 20 governing bodies (regulators, associations, and institutes) including ASIC, APRA, FASEA, FMA, AFA, FPA and CIMA^® CE/CPD requirements, to name a few.
Earn CE/CPD hours

Forum CIMA CE Library - over 125 CE hours
This subset of our full CE Library features just those learning resources that are accredited for CIMA CE hours, so CIMA certificants can more easily find learning resources to meet their recertification obligation (at the same time as meeting the CE/CPD requirements of other governing bodies e.g. ASIC, APRA, FASEA, FMA, etc).
Earn CIMA CE hours

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