Forum Fodder

Forum Fodder | Friday 06 October 2023

“The current bond market pattern is not - repeat, not - just a replay of what we have seen in recent years… Long rates are moving because of deeper structural shifts in the supply and demand for bonds; so it is not ‘just’ about the Fed.” - Gillian Tett, chair of the editorial board and editor-at-large, US at the Financial Times (05 October 2023)

All the best for another week’s continuing education!
Graham
P.S. We’re delighted to welcome a new Forum Fodder regular columnist, Wayne Fitzgibbon, with “Thinking Differently”. With a background as a Chief Investment Officer, Portfolio Manager, Macroeconomist, and Trader, he is sure to challenge your portfolio construction beliefs.
P.P.S. Mark Your Diary! Portfolio Construction Forum Research Symposium (Wed 01 Nov 2023, Sydney) - Exploring contemporary investment research issues. With an emphasis on peer discussion and debate, Research Symposium is essential for senior practitioners responsible for researching and selecting investment solutions for inclusion on APLs, models and multi-manager portfolios. Invitations will be sent next week.

Strategies | Finology | Philosophy

Laying Chicago economics to rest
There is good reason to think that the economic orthodoxy of the past 50 years has one foot in the grave. The question is whether the mainstream economics profession has gotten the memo yet!
Antara Haldar, University of Cambridge | Read

Markets | Philosophy

Q&A: Outperforming markets given history rhymes not repeats
The fact that structural changes do exist and that historical data are often of limited relevance presents a major opportunity for investors seeking to outperform others.
Woody Brock, SED | Listen, Watch

Strategies | Markets

Thinking Differently: Hamlet and the October Effect
The three biggest crashes in US stock markets occurred in October and there have been other significant October falls over the past 100 years. While common sense suggests the “October Effect” is nothing more than market folklore, should it be ignored?
Wayne Fitzgibbon, CAS Market Insights | Read

Strategies | Markets | As seen at Strategies Conference 2023

If you do anything, capture energy transition via infrastructure
The transition a net zero emission economy offers risks and opportunities for investors. Infrastructure is a simple way to benefit from the transition to a net zero emission economy and represents a multi-decade growth opportunity.
Gerald Stack, Magellan Asset Management | 0.50 CE | Listen, Watch

Strategies | Markets | As seen at Strategies Conference 2023

Global private debt is a core portfolio allocation
Yield premium over comparable liquid markets, control, upfront economics and low historical volatility and default rates make private credit an asset class to consider for a core allocation in investors’ portfolios.
Teiki Benveniste, Ares Australia Management | 0.50 CE | Listen, Watch

Markets | Finology | Philosophy | As seen at Strategies Conference 2023

When investing, a youthful mindset is everything
The young are better able to navigate VUCA owing to their natural growth and learning mindset. In an environment where investors can do anything, just not everything, we can all benefit from adopting a youth mindset.
Tassos Stassopoulos, Trinetra Investment Management | 0.25 CE | Listen, Watch

Finology | Philosophy

Behavioural Finance: Investment decision-making short course
Led by behavioural finance expert, Herman Brodie, the Behavioural Finance - Investment Decision-Making course will help you identify, analyse and evaluate the principal human preferences that influence decision-making in situations of uncertainty, so you can recognise and identify these preferences in others, to improve investment decision-making.
Herman Brodie | 8.00 CE | Enrol

Markets

How global currencies end
Whether the dollar retains its global role will hinge on whether the US brings its soaring debts under control, avoids another unproductive debt-ceiling showdown, and gets its economic and political act together more generally.
Barry Eichengreen, University of California | Read

Strategies | Markets | As seen at Strategies Conference 2023

Three global risks affect everything – you must do something(s)!
Three gigantic, global, interconnected risks have the potential to upend the world as we know it. Investors who understand these will be better positioned to successfully navigate the uncertainty plaguing our world.
Vikram Mansharamani, Forum Visting Fellow | 0.75 CE | Listen, Watch

Strategies | Markets

Crockpot: Chinese equities are too big a market to ignore
Owning or not owning 4% of the global equity market is not going to make or break any portfolio. As for being too big to ignore? It’s nuts and you can clearly see it’s nuts.
Tim Farrelly, farrelly’s Investment Strategy | Read

Investing | Finology | Philosophy | As seen at Strategies Conference 2023

If you do anything, use behavioural analysis in manager selection
In the same way that Moneyball has swept every professional sport, data science is bringing greater transparency to portfolio managers’ decision-making skill. To select managers capable of outperforming, behavioural analysis is crucial.
Clare Flynn Levy and Greg Dean | 0.50 CE | Read, Listen, Watch

Strategies | Markets | Philosophy | As seen at Strategies Conference 2023

If you do anything, increase your exposure to private markets
Opinions about private markets are often not rooted in facts, due in part to the fact that data on private markets has been scarce. But data is available and it debunks some of the common misconceptions about private markets.
Mario Giannini, Hamilton Lane | 0.50 CE | Read, Listen, Watch

Markets

The global economy’s real enemy is geopolitics, not protectionism
The distinction between free trade and protectionism not only misrepresents recent history, it also misconstrues today’s policy transitions and the conditions needed for a healthy global economy.
Dani Rodrik, Harvard University | Read

Markets | As seen at Strategies Conference 2023

If you do anything, beware the mania in AI stocks
Artificial intelligence will revolutionise our lives - but investors should beware the lofty multiples being assigned to AI-related stocks. We are in a replay of the dotcom bubble.
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut, Macro Hive | Listen, Watch

Strategies | Markets | Philosophy | As seen at Strategies Conference 2023

If you do anything, embrace regime change in portfolios
Markets have undergone a regime shift - to prosper, we need to understand the factors that will be crucial to building multi-asset portfolios capable of delivering financial wellbeing in the years ahead.
Steve Hanke, Johns Hopkins University | 0.50 CE | Listen, Watch

Strategies | Markets | As seen at Strategies Conference 2023

A regime shift demands an increased allocation to bonds
At a time when “you can do anything”, there are meaningful implications and opportunities for portfolio rebalancing and investors still structurally underweight bonds need to put aside recency bias and “do something” - now.
Rob Mead, PIMCO | 0.25 CE | Listen, Watch

Markets | Philosophy

The 40-year dream regime is over, you can’t do nothing
August 1982 was a banner month. It saw the dawn of a new regime for investors – and for record labels – that was to run for 40 years. But in 2022, cash rates finally ended their 40-year decline. And the world turned for investors.
Graham Harman, Portfolio Construction Forum | Read

Forum CE Library - over 700 CE/CPD hours
Complimentary for all Forum members, the Forum’s online on-demand CE Library offers over 700 CE/CPD hours of accredited learning resources, to help members meet the CE/CPD requirements of 20+ governing bodies (regulators, associations, and institutes) including ASIC, APRA, Legislated (AU), FAAA, FMA and CIMA^® CE/CPD requirements, to name just a few.
Earn CE/CPD hours

Forum CIMA CE Library - over 150 CE hours
This subset of our full CE Library features just those learning resources that are accredited for CIMA CE hours, so CIMA certificants can more easily find learning resources to meet their recertification obligation (at the same time as meeting the CE/CPD requirements of other governing bodies e.g. ASIC, APRA, Legislated (AU), FAAA, FMA etc).
Earn CIMA CE hours

Connect with us on LinkedIn
We let my LinkedIn network know as soon as we release new articles on portfolioconstructionforum.edu.au and when registration opens for our face-to-face CE programs. And of course, I’d welcome having an offline direct conversation with you any time.