Forum Fodder

Forum Fodder | Friday 15 March 2024

“Geopolitics, historically – you got paid to ignore it. I think you’re going to get severely punished if you ignore it in the future.” - Ron Temple, Chief Market Strategist, Lazard, at Markets Summit 2024 (21 February 2024)

All the best for another week’s continuing education!
Graham
P.S. Enrolment is now open (closes 31 March) for the 2024 intake for the Certified Investment Management Analyst^® program, the peak, international, technical portfolio construction certification program designed for investment management analysts. Stand For More in '24!  Find out more and enrol

Markets

Trump and the global economic risk picture
We have entered a period of intensifying geopolitical rivalries and conflicts. If Donald Trump wins the US presidential election in November, the world will be even further destabilised.
Nouriel Roubini, Roubini Macro Associates | Read

Strategies | Markets

Crockpot: A good investment process needs to consider geopolitics
By all means, discuss geopolitical events and the likely investment implications. But you should then completely ignore those discussions and consciously exclude geopolitics from your investment decision-making process.
Tim Farrelly, farrelly’s Investment Strategy | Read

Strategies | Markets | Investing | Finology | Philosophy

Ultra-low rates are history - portfolios need more bonds
We are in an investment environment like that of the pre-GFC period. Bonds will offer higher levels of both income and diversification, within a multi-asset portfolio.
Chris Iggo, AXA Investment Managers | 0.25 CE | Listen, Watch

Markets

Let go of the past, we must think differently about markets
Much of current economic and markets thinking is rooted in the post-GFC era. Practitioners need to let go of that history and embrace the fact that four trends are fundamentally changing the long-term outlook for markets.
Wayne Fitzgibbon, CAS Market Insights | Read

Strategies | Markets

Global trade is being rewired, hailing a new investment regime
Contrary to wide opinion, globalisation is not “history” but is being reinvented. For investors, a less interconnected world has significant implications for corporate capital expenditure and country allocation.
Kevin Hebner, Epoch Investment Partners | 0.25 CE | Listen, Watch

Markets

Disappointing
I am concerned by this … pretty much because I agree with you! All fair and reasonable forecasts.
Michael Furey, Delta Research & Advisory | Read

Strategies | Markets | Investing

Enrol now for the 2024 Certified Investment Management Analyst^® program
Are you involved in any aspect of constructing multi-asset, multi-manager portfolios? Are you seeking to formally equip yourself with the knowledge, skill and expertise to build better quality multi-asset, multi-manager investment portfolios? CIMA^® - certification offers you an unrivalled opportunity to do so, and be recognised for it. CIMA certification is the peak, international technical portfolio construction certification program designed for investment management analysts - that is, those involved in any aspect of constructing multi-asset, multi-manager portfolios. There are already more than 8,700 CIMA certificants globally.
Stand For More in '24 - more knowledge, skill and expertise - with CIMA certification!
Enrolment is now open (closes 31 March) for the 2024 CIMA^® certification program  Enrol now!

Finology | Philosophy

On The Hunt: Ethical behaviour profiling
On the Hunt is a monthly lecture series focused on the human factors in investment portfolio construction, including the ethical implications. It will help you better identify and understand how investing biases, beliefs and behaviours impact portfolio construction practices - and therefore, investment outcomes - to help you build better quality investor portfolios.
Katherine Hunt, Ardentura Consulting | 1.00 CE (Ethics) | Read, Watch

Finology | Philosophy

Behavioural Finance: Investment decision-making short course
Led by behavioural finance expert, Herman Brodie, this online, on-demand course completed at your own pace will help you identify, analyse and evaluate the principal human preferences that influence decision-making in situations of uncertainty, so you can recognise and identify these preferences in others, to improve investment decision-making.
Herman Brodie | 8.00 CE | Enrol

Markets

Where will the global economy land in 2024?
Around this time a year ago, about 85% of economists and market analysts (including me) expected the US and global economy would suffer a recession. But the opposite mostly happened. One must approach any 2024 forecast with humility.
Nouriel Roubini, New York University & Roubini Macro Associates | Read

Strategies

Bird’s Eye View: The asset allocation myth
I was amazed several years ago to learn that the class I was teching believed that 90% of a fund’s returns are due to asset allocation. Having once been a major promoter of this myth, it is important I contribute to its eradication.
Ron Bird, ANU & Portfolio Construction Forum | Read

Strategies | Markets

Thinking Differently: When reality strikes back
Is there, as many predict, another financial crisis looming? The history of financial crises suggests that the preconditions are present. But this has been the case a few times since 2008. What is the reality?
Wayne Fitzgibbon, CAS Market Insights | Read

Finology

Research Review: An economics lens on ‘attention’
This paper provides a comprehensive review of the psychology of attention and its relationship to key economic concepts (utility, risk-taking, social preferences, and learning), and the emerging role of AI in the modern economy.
Rob Hamshar, Portfolio Construction Forum | 1.50 CE | Read

Investing

Design and Distribution Obligations (DDO) Report 762: Investment products
This report summarises the key observations from ASIC’s review of how issuers of investment products are meeting design and distribution obligations and areas for improvement.
Portfolio Construction Forum | 1.00 CE | Read

Markets

The growing risk of global disorder
The Western-led global economic order has had a bad 2023. Surprisingly, the primary cause was not the emergence of an alternative order led by China, as some had anticipated.
Mohamed El-Erian | Read

Strategies | Philosophy | As seen at Strategies Conference 2023

If you do anything, embrace scenario planning
The primary criticism directed at those who think about the future is that it’s an act of futility. But thinking about how the future may unfold has proven to be a useful way to make decisions amidst radical uncertainty.
Vikram Mansharamani, Visting Fellow | 0.25 CE | Read, Listen, Watch

Markets

Investing and prospering in a new economic regime - it really IS different this time
At this year’s FAAA Congress, we asked an expert panel about the implications of a VUCA investment climate for the construction of multi-asset, multi-manager portfolios and for investment conversations with clients.
Portfolio Construction Forum | Read

Markets | Philosophy

Q&A: Outperforming markets given history rhymes not repeats
The fact that structural changes do exist and that historical data are often of limited relevance presents a major opportunity for investors seeking to outperform others.
Woody Brock, SED | Listen, Watch

Markets

Thinking Differently: Solving the puzzle
Very thought provoking… This article has prompted me to further research balance sheets and accumulated wealth.
Mark Hayden, Hayden Bourne Financial Services | Read

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This subset of our full CE Library features just those learning resources that are accredited for CIMA CE hours, so CIMA certificants can more easily find learning resources to meet their recertification obligation (at the same time as meeting the CE/CPD requirements of other governing bodies e.g. ASIC, APRA, Legislated (AU)/FAAA, FMA etc).
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