Forum Fodder

Forum Fodder | Friday 19 April 2024

“Everyone would love a shot at earning big gains with little risk, but the ‘efficiency’ of the market – meaning the fact that the other participants in the market aren’t dummies – usually precludes this possibility.” - Howard Marks, co-founder of Oaktree Capital Management (17 April 2024)

All the best for another week’s continuing education!
Graham
P.S. Calling financial advisers! You are invited to participate in a Macquarie University research project that will assess psychological well-being and job satisfaction, and burnout, in the financial advisory sector. If you have a moment to participate in a brief survey, you’ll be aiding crucial research to help financial advisers (and, you’ll also have the chance to win cash prizes). Find out more
P.P.S. Mark your diary!. Join us for the 22nd annual Portfolio Construction Forum Strategies Summit 2024, Wednesday & Thursday 21-22 August, at our live studio in Sydney, as part of a group at a live site, or via live stream. Early Bird registration opens soon! Meanwhile, watch the highlights from past programs

Markets

Can Europe’s economy exceed expectations in 2024?
After 15 years of economic upheavals, from the European debt crisis to the Covid-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the European economy appears set to underperform in 2024. But are appearances deceiving?
Kenneth Rogoff, Harvard University | Read

Markets | Strategies As seen at Markets Summit 2024

History is echoing – this is a year to be tactical
With heightened global geopolitical risks, reduced fiscal support from governments, a deflating Chinese property bubble, and an ongoing US commercial real estate crisis, 2024 is a year for investors to be nimble and tactical.
Jonathan Pain, The Pain Report | 0.50 CE | Listen, Watch

Markets As seen at Markets Summit 2024

Companies are doomed to repeat past disruption failings
There’s no such thing as “normal” for supply chains. The challenges for 2024 and 2025 that echo the past include logistics network disruptions, geopolitical risks and the cash costs of environmental policies - which make investing in supply chain security more important than ever.
Chris Rogers, S&P Global Market Intelligence | 0.25 CE | Listen, Watch

Markets | Investing As seen at Markets Summit 2024

Don’t be anchored by the ‘dinosaur seven’, growth is in Ex 20
Investors should explore opportunities beyond the ASX20, focusing instead on the Ex-20 index which provides exposure to Australia’s future rather than its past.
Dion Hershan, Yarra Capital Management | 0.50 CE | Listen, Watch

Markets | Finology

Research Review: Great expectations
The future state of the economy and markets depends, in part, on what people expect it will be. Understanding people’s expectations, and how and why they form and revise them, has important implications for portfolio construction practice.
Rob Hamshar, Portfolio Construction Forum | 1.50 CE | Read

Strategies | Markets

Short-term investing is dangerous
Wow that is confronting. To para-phrase - by the time you know something is bad it has been factored in and over-sold, and hence you should buy. That is probably very difficult to do. I take solace in my hypothesis that long-term investing is very different to short-term investing.
Mark Hayden, Hayden Bourne Financial Services | Read

Finology | Philosophy

On The Hunt: Ethical behaviour profiling
On the Hunt is a monthly lecture series focused on the human factors in investment portfolio construction, including the ethical implications. It will help you better identify and understand how investing biases, beliefs and behaviours impact portfolio construction practices - and therefore, investment outcomes - to help you build better quality investor portfolios.
Katherine Hunt, Ardentura Consulting | 1.00 CE (Ethics) | Read, Watch

Finology | Philosophy

Behavioural Finance: Investment decision-making short course
Led by behavioural finance expert, Herman Brodie, this online, on-demand course completed at your own pace will help you identify, analyse and evaluate the principal human preferences that influence decision-making in situations of uncertainty, so you can recognise and identify these preferences in others, to improve investment decision-making.
Herman Brodie | 8.00 CE | Enrol

Markets

China confronts the middle-income trap
At this year’s China Development Forum - the highest-level annual meeting of senior Chinese policymakers and top CEOs, policymakers, and academics - discussion focused squarely on the risk of China falling into the middle-income trap.
Nouriel Roubini, Roubini Macro Associates | Read

Strategies | Markets | As seen at Markets Summit 2024

This time is different because every time is different
There’s much to learn from history, but every time is different when it comes to markets. The backdrop for investing will require investors to identify how the outlook today intersects with our experiences of the past and where it differs.
Ronald Temple, Lazard | 0.50 CE | Listen, Watch

Markets As seen at Markets Summit 2024

Investors are likely winners in a Biden-Trump rematch
Second term presidents tend to be more ideologically aggressive, since they are freed from the need to face voters again. Investors globally need to think through the implications of a second term for either candidate.
Libby Cantrill, PIMCO | 0.50 CE | Listen, Watch

Strategies | Markets | Investing

Thinking Differently: The unstoppable meets the immovable
With just about every equity index globally dominated by a handful of companies, indexed investors might soon discover they are overweight future failure.
Wayne Fitzgibbon, CAS Market Insights | Read

Investing | Finology | Philosophy

Bird’s Eye View: Investment mandates for good or bad
In 1990, Towers Perrin started spruiking the modern-day investment mandate. I must admit the concept of making investment managers far more accountable seemed rather good. Unfortunately, it most likely left clients worse off.
Ron Bird, ANU & Portfolio Construction Forum | Read

Strategies

It’s a choice of asset allocation versus alpha allocation…
Thanks Ron, it really is a myth that needs to be busted! It’s also interesting to see why you think it was circulated originally… David Toohey, Assetly | Read

Markets

Trump and the global economic risk picture
We have entered a period of intensifying geopolitical rivalries and conflicts. If Donald Trump wins the US presidential election in November, the world will be even further destabilised.
Nouriel Roubini, Roubini Macro Associates | Read

Strategies | Markets

Crockpot: A good investment process needs to consider geopolitics
By all means, discuss geopolitical events and the likely investment implications. But you should then completely ignore those discussions and consciously exclude geopolitics from your investment decision-making process.
Tim Farrelly, farrelly’s Investment Strategy | Read

Strategies | Markets | Investing | Finology | Philosophy

Ultra-low rates are history - portfolios need more bonds
We are in an investment environment like that of the pre-GFC period. Bonds will offer higher levels of both income and diversification, within a multi-asset portfolio.
Chris Iggo, AXA Investment Managers | 0.25 CE | Listen, Watch

Markets

Let go of the past, we must think differently about markets
Much of current economic and markets thinking is rooted in the post-GFC era. Practitioners need to let go of that history and embrace the fact that four trends are fundamentally changing the long-term outlook for markets.
Wayne Fitzgibbon, CAS Market Insights | Read

Strategies | Markets

Global trade is being rewired, hailing a new investment regime
Contrary to wide opinion, globalisation is not “history” but is being reinvented. For investors, a less interconnected world has significant implications for corporate capital expenditure and country allocation.
Kevin Hebner, Epoch Investment Partners | 0.25 CE | Listen, Watch

Markets

Disappointing
I am concerned by this … pretty much because I agree with you! All fair and reasonable forecasts.
Michael Furey, Delta Research & Advisory | Read

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