Forum Fodder

Forum Fodder | Friday 03 May 2024

“It is likely to take longer for us to gain confidence that we are on a sustainable path down to 2% inflation. I don’t know how long it will take.” - US Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell (01 May 2024)

All the best for another week’s continuing education!
Graham
P.S. Mark your diary!. Join us for the 23rd annual Portfolio Construction Forum Strategies Summit 2024, Wednesday & Thursday 21-22 August, at our live studio in Sydney, as part of a group at a live site, or via live stream. Early Bird registration opens soon! Meanwhile, watch the highlights from past programs
P.P.S. Calling financial advisers! You are invited to participate in a Macquarie University research project that will assess psychological well-being and job satisfaction, and burnout, in the financial advisory sector. If you have a moment to participate in a brief survey, you’ll be aiding crucial research to help financial advisers (and, you’ll also have the chance to win cash prizes). Find out more

Markets

Navigating major transitions in an uncertain economy
Three issues are key to deciphering what 2024-25 will hold for the US economy, which is now the sole major engine of global growth. I will stick my neck out and offer some illustrative probabilities.
Mohamed El-Erian | Read

Markets | As seen at Markets Summit 2024

The return of history is reshaping investment markets
Three investment experts offer and debate their high conviction thesis on a long-term, deep rooted structural change impacting markets over a decade or more.
Oliver Hartwich, Chris Rogers, Vikram Mansharamani | 1.00 CE | Listen, Watch

Markets | As seen at Markets Summit 2024

The acute need for housing supports private credit returns
Australia’s residential vacancy rate is at a record low and net overseas migration at a record high. But, the banks can no longer participate in the market like they used to, providing greater opportunity for real estate private credit.
Mark Power, Qualitas | 0.50 CE | Read, Listen, Watch

Markets | As seen at Markets Summit 2024

Bonds matter, no matter hard or soft landing
This economic cycle will mean revert to a traditional business cycle - a cycle that may not exactly repeat but will rhyme with prior inflation cycles. Opportunities exist in global bonds in 2024 and 2025 no matter hard or soft landing outcomes.
Jack McIntyre, Brandywine Global | 0.50 CE | Listen, Watch

Markets | Investing

Research Review: Wider implications of the swing to passive investing
Three articles provide us with insights into the impact that the growth in passive management has had on the performance of active managers; the risks taken by active managers and the general efficiency of markets; and, the behaviour of markets.
Ron Bird | Australian National University & Portfolio Construction Forum | 2.00 CE | Read

Finology | Philosophy

On The Hunt: Ethical behaviour profiling
On the Hunt is a monthly lecture series focused on the human factors in investment portfolio construction, including the ethical implications. It will help you better identify and understand how investing biases, beliefs and behaviours impact portfolio construction practices - and therefore, investment outcomes - to help you build better quality investor portfolios.
Katherine Hunt, Ardentura Consulting | 1.00 CE (Ethics) | Read, Watch

Finology | Philosophy

Behavioural Finance: Investment decision-making short course
Led by behavioural finance expert, Herman Brodie, this online, on-demand course completed at your own pace will help you identify, analyse and evaluate the principal human preferences that influence decision-making in situations of uncertainty, so you can recognise and identify these preferences in others, to improve investment decision-making.
Herman Brodie | 8.00 CE | Enrol

Markets

Can Europe’s economy exceed expectations in 2024?
After 15 years of economic upheavals, from the European debt crisis to the Covid-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the European economy appears set to underperform in 2024. But are appearances deceiving?
Kenneth Rogoff, Harvard University | Read

Markets | Strategies | As seen at Markets Summit 2024

History is echoing – this is a year to be tactical
With heightened global geopolitical risks, reduced fiscal support from governments, a deflating Chinese property bubble, and an ongoing US commercial real estate crisis, 2024 is a year for investors to be nimble and tactical.
Jonathan Pain, The Pain Report | 0.50 CE | Listen, Watch

Markets | As seen at Markets Summit 2024

Companies are doomed to repeat past disruption failings
There’s no such thing as “normal” for supply chains. The challenges for 2024 and 2025 that echo the past include logistics network disruptions, geopolitical risks and the cash costs of environmental policies - which make investing in supply chain security more important than ever.
Chris Rogers, S&P Global Market Intelligence | 0.25 CE | Listen, Watch

Markets | Investing | As seen at Markets Summit 2024

Don’t be anchored by the ‘dinosaur seven’, growth is in Ex 20
Investors should explore opportunities beyond the ASX20, focusing instead on the Ex-20 index which provides exposure to Australia’s future rather than its past.
Dion Hershan, Yarra Capital Management | 0.50 CE | Listen, Watch

Markets | Finology

Research Review: Great expectations
The future state of the economy and markets depends, in part, on what people expect it will be. Understanding people’s expectations, and how and why they form and revise them, has important implications for portfolio construction practice.
Rob Hamshar, Portfolio Construction Forum | 1.50 CE | Read

Strategies | Markets

Short-term investing is dangerous
Wow that is confronting. To para-phrase - by the time you know something is bad it has been factored in and over-sold, and hence you should buy. That is probably very difficult to do. I take solace in my hypothesis that long-term investing is very different to short-term investing.
Mark Hayden, Hayden Bourne Financial Services | Read

Markets

China confronts the middle-income trap
At this year’s China Development Forum - the highest-level annual meeting of senior Chinese policymakers and top CEOs, policymakers, and academics - discussion focused squarely on the risk of China falling into the middle-income trap.
Nouriel Roubini, Roubini Macro Associates | Read

Strategies | Markets | As seen at Markets Summit 2024

This time is different because every time is different
There’s much to learn from history, but every time is different when it comes to markets. The backdrop for investing will require investors to identify how the outlook today intersects with our experiences of the past and where it differs.
Ronald Temple, Lazard | 0.50 CE | Listen, Watch

Markets | As seen at Markets Summit 2024

Investors are likely winners in a Biden-Trump rematch
Second term presidents tend to be more ideologically aggressive, since they are freed from the need to face voters again. Investors globally need to think through the implications of a second term for either candidate.
Libby Cantrill, PIMCO | 0.50 CE | Listen, Watch

Strategies | Markets | Investing

Thinking Differently: The unstoppable meets the immovable
With just about every equity index globally dominated by a handful of companies, indexed investors might soon discover they are overweight future failure.
Wayne Fitzgibbon, CAS Market Insights | Read

Investing | Finology | Philosophy

Bird’s Eye View: Investment mandates for good or bad
In 1990, Towers Perrin started spruiking the modern-day investment mandate. I must admit the concept of making investment managers far more accountable seemed rather good. Unfortunately, it most likely left clients worse off.
Ron Bird, ANU & Portfolio Construction Forum | Read

Strategies

It’s a choice of asset allocation versus alpha allocation…
Thanks Ron, it really is a myth that needs to be busted! It’s also interesting to see why you think it was circulated originally… David Toohey, Assetly | Read

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We let my LinkedIn network know as soon as we release new articles on portfolioconstructionforum.edu.au and when registration opens for our face-to-face CE programs. And of course, I’d welcome having an offline direct conversation with you any time.