Forum Fodder

Forum Fodder | Friday 20 September 2024

“The goal is to put together a portfolio that will work under the most likely outcomes and not get crushed under the worst likely outcomes… [It] is unlikely to be the portfolio that absolutely kills it given the one thing that turns out, but that’s how you have to live your life.” - Howard Marks, co-founder of Oaktree Capital Management, in an interview with The Australian (5 September 2024)
All the best for another week’s continuing education!
Graham

Markets

Harris plays chess while Trump plays checkers
So far, financial markets have remained largely indifferent to the upcoming November US presidential election. In my view, the odds of a Democratic sweep are increasing, and investors would be wise to pay attention.
Kenneth Rogoff, Harvard University | Read

Markets | Investing

Crockpot: Inefficient markets - great for active equity managers
It seems plausible. A lack of research means inefficient pricing and lots of opportunities to find bargains, and inefficient markets are full of less skilled investors. Alpha is lying around just waiting to be collected.
Tim Farrelly, farrelly’s Investment Strategy | Read

Strategies | Markets | Investing | Finology | As seen at Strategies Summit 2024

Macro Matters! The whole is greater than the sum of its parts!
Powerful geopolitical, demographic, environmental, technological and sociological trends are reshaping our world, impacting investment risk and uncertainty and how best to design portfolios capable of improving the financial well-being of individuals
Macro Matters panel | 1.00 CE | Watch, Listen

Strategies | Markets | Investing | Finology | As seen at Strategies Summit 2024

Practitioners must consider all of the parts
Our diverse panel of experts identified their key takeouts from Strategies Summit 2024 and the portfolio construction implications.
Key Takeouts panel | 0.50 CE | Watch, Listen

Finology

Research Review: Algorithm aversion
The financial services industry has long embraced the potential of AI-based systems including robo-advice. These two papers review the psychological and relational dynamics that arise from “algorithm aversion”.
Rob Hamshar, Portfolio Construction Forum | 1.00 CE | Read

Strategies | Markets | Investing | Philosophy

Short Course: Mastering private debt investing
Examining the unique characteristics that make private debt a compelling investment. Private debt has grown in popularity as an alternative source of debt financing, with the asset class tripling in size since 2008. Curated and produced by Portfolio Construction Forum, and led by private debt investing subject matter expert, Andrew Lockhart, this self-paced, two-hour online short course equips you with the expertise to navigate private debt investment confidently across diverse market conditions.
Metrics & Portfolio Construction Forum | 2.00 CE | Enrol

Finology | Philosophy | ** Premium **

On The Hunt: Ethical behaviour profiling
On the Hunt is a monthly lecture series focused on the human factors in investment portfolio construction, including the ethical implications. It will help you better identify and understand how investing biases, beliefs and behaviours impact portfolio construction practices - and therefore, investment outcomes - to help you build better quality investor portfolios.
Katherine Hunt, Ardentura Consulting | 1.00 CE (Ethics) | Premium | Enrol

Finology | Philosophy | ** Premium **

Behavioural Finance: Investment decision-making short course
Led by behavioural finance expert, Herman Brodie, this online, on-demand course completed at your own pace will help you identify, analyse and evaluate the principal human preferences that influence decision-making in situations of uncertainty, so you can recognise and identify these preferences in others, to improve investment decision-making.
Herman Brodie | 8.00 CE | Enrol

Markets | Finology

Do political leaders deserve a break?
Short breaks can improve decision-making and overall performance. A 2023 study found that holidays “meaningfully improve” the accuracy of equity analysts’ earnings forecasts.
Ngaire Woods, Oxford University | Read

Markets | Investing | Philosophy

Thinking Differently: Pippa Malmgren
With armed conflicts raging in Europe and Middle East, and the prospect of a US-China showdown over Taiwan, many investors believe World War III is increasingly likely. But the Forum’s Visiting Fellow, Pippa Malmgren, thinks differently…
Wayne Fitzgibbon, Thinking Differently | Watch, Listen

Markets | Finology

Will humans survive the rise of the machines?
Wetware-powered AI is changing the way we manage risk and uncertainty, including in financial markets. Its rise will also profoundly change how humans think about the nature of reality — in finance and more generally.
Pippa Malmgren, Portfolio Construction Forum| Read

Markets

The Inquisitor: WWIII is increasingly likely – Woody Brock
The free world faces two related threats. First, the likelihood of World War III is rapidly rising. Second, the creation of a coalition of law-abiding nations appears less likely. And investors anticipating significant interest rate cuts face disappointment.
Robert Huebscher, Portfolio Construction Forum | Watch, Listen

Markets

Are supply chains fixed or broken? Outlook for 2024 and beyond
Are supply chains fixed or broken? In the second half of 2024, firms are having to deal with logistics network volatility. Heading into 2025, political and regulatory risks provide risks and opportunities for investors.
Chris Rogers, S&P Global | 0.25 CE | Read

Markets

The moral hazard of lower interest rates
Capital markets believe that interest rates are indeed on a downward path. Regulators would do well to get ahead of the next speculative cycle while they still can.
Dambisa Moyo, Versaca Investments | Read

Strategies | Markets

Crockpot: Bonds are no longer negatively correlated with equities
Many commentators have noticed the positive correlation between bonds and equities over the past few years and announced the end of bonds as a useful diversifier - often claiming “The 60/40 portfolio is dead, long live alternatives!”.
Tim Farrelly, farrelly’s Investment Strategy | Read

Markets | Investing | Finology | Philosophy

Thinking Differently: Chris Joye
With Australian insolvencies at a 25-year high and corporate debt defaults rising globally, many investors are hoping that central banks will significantly reduce interest rates. But Coolabah Capital’s Chris Joye thinks differently.
Wayne Fitzgibbon, Thinking Differently | Listen, Watch

Markets

Supply chains find a way – resilience amid natural disasters
Investors must pay close attention to emergent supply chain disruption events, including those caused by mother nature. Four real-world examples reveal both exposure and impact of weather-related disruptions.
Chris Rogers, S&P Global | 0.25 CE | Read

Strategies | Philosophy Editor’s Pick!

If you do anything, embrace scenario planning
The primary criticism directed at those who think about the future is that it’s an act of futility. But thinking about how the future may unfold has proven to be a useful way to make decisions amidst radical uncertainty.
Vikram Mansharaman, Portfolio Construction Forum | 0.25 CE | Read, Listen, Watch

Markets

Inside the Club Thinking
With all due respect to Prof. Rogoff, the problem is not the lack of full “independence”, nor the use of flawed New Keynesian models, but far too much New Keynesian thinking…
Wayne Fitzgibbon, Thinking Differently | Read

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