Fodder starts with Nouriel Roubini arguing that Trump's policies are a key risk to the nascent global pick up in economic activity. Dr Bob Gay explains why Fed officials believe they can engineer a graceful exit from their experiment with asset purchases. Invesco's Stephen Anness and Andy Hall have written a terrific paper on the art of contrarian thinking of all types. Prof Ron Bird reviews two new papers on factor investing And finally, we feature the top-10 rated presentation by PIMCO's Joachim Fels at Markets Summit 2017.
This week, Fodder kicks off with Berkeley economist, Professor Shachar Kariv, on the science of uncovering investors' true preferences. Harvard's Prof Hausmann then argues that emerging market bond funds should make people morally queasy. Bob Huebscher recaps the recent debate between Wharton's Jeremy Siegel and Yale's Robert Shiller about the outlook for equity returns. Rob Arnott argues that momentum and value are cheap, but low beta is well overpriced. And we finish with a white paper by AB on low vol investing in Australian Equities
This week, we bring you the third and final installment of Dr Woody Brock's review of the three key risks facing investors, Tim Farrelly then shows that despite their critics, the ratings agencies do a wonderful job of assessing companies. Urban Carmel then debunks the myth that indexing is a threat to market stability and Yale's Stephen Roach looks at the implications (and the irony) of China's new global push. Finally we feature Jeremy Lawson's excellent Markets Summit presentation on the "dire" implications for risk assets of the rising wave of populism.
Overall stock market risk has declined modestly in the last 80 years, but the nature of risk has changed greatly. The risk stemming from market mistakes and, possibly, from irrationality has risen significantly.
Fodder kicks off with part 2 of Dr Woody Brock's review of the three key geopolitical risks facing investors Nouriel Roubini asks whether investors are underestimating the potential of rising geopolitical risk to trigger a black swan event. PIMCO's Libby Cantrill explains why President Trump is unlikely to be able to deliver any time this year on his ideas to reignite US economic growth, and Professor Ron Bird reviews three recent papers on factor investing. Fodder ends with Douglas Isles's top 3-rated Finology Summit session on how to help investors stay the course and not fall prey to common behavourial pitfalls.
From 2017, instead of the two-day Symposium in Auckland each May, our NZ members have choice across five program days - including the one-day, by invitation-only Masterclass NZ in Auckland in June, for a strictly limited number of senior investment practitioners.
This week's Fodder offers two perspectives, from Linda Jakobson and Prof Barry Eichengreen, on the issue of China/US relations under a Trump presidency. Tim Farrelly then looks at how likely US equities are to return 8% per annum going forward given their current valuation. UTS Prof Ron Bird summarises three recent academic research papers and we feature Michael Kitces's top rated presentation from our recent Finology Summit.
Fodder kicks off with a unique insight from Peter Lilley on how BREXIT will play out. UTSProf Ron Bird disagrees with Paul Keating on first-home buyers using their super to get a foot on the property ladder. Yale's Stephen Roach argues that, yet again, the Western perspective has missed the Chinese context when it comes to growth. Charles Dallara explains Trump will have a bumpy first half year as he learns the ropes of navigating the US political system and we share details of the newly formed Investment Management Research Program, an initiative between the Forum and UTS Business School that will continue to enhance the breadth and depth of our CE and certification programs.
Dr Woody Brock leads this week with an exclusive 15-minute video in which he debunks the myth that our living standards have declined. Berkeley Professor Eichengreen explains what "an impatient [US] president, frustrated and hemmed in on all sides" is likely to do. Michael Kitces argues that every retirement income strategy needs to address three key questions to satisfy our intrinsic (illogical) "hierarchy of retirement needs". Will Jackson covers demography specialist Richard Jackson's insights on how ageing in the developed world is increasing the risk of social upheaval in the developing world. And, we bring you Ron Temple's top five-rated presentation on why "the winds of change" sweeping through the markets are stronger than you think.
Contrary to popular belief, western living standards have not declined in recent decades. Rather, government statistics failed to capture a key element of real GPD growth.
Chris Watling returns to Fodder this week with a 10-minute video insight, Prof J Bradford DeLong compares society's overall wealth today to the Agrarian Age, Tim Farrelly debunks the notion that negative gearing is the driver of high property prices and Will Jackson sums up how Markets Summit delegates converted the Faculty's insights into four practical portfolio construction decisions. Finally we feature Martin Conlon's top-rated presentation from Markets Summit 2017 in which he argues how to reposition Australian equity portfolios to protect against the risk of higher inflation and interest rates.
Markets have run hard in recent months on speculative exuberance. However, the critical question is will President Trump prove to be a tailwind, or a headwind for the global economy?
Investors should focus on asymmetric opportunities with a margin of safety and multiple ways of winning. Developed Asia and Europe offer these in abundance.
Like all presidents, Trump will be judged by how far he makes good on his pledges. It is important to distinguish between the real and the imaginary obstacles Trump faces.
Mid this year, ASIC concluded its enquiry into allegations of wrongdoing and criminal behaviour at IOOF, related mainly to the research team and its then head. The real "scandal" turned out to be about reckless and biased elements of the media (and politicians).
Following the victory of the Leave campaign in the UK Brexit referendum and of Donald Trump in the US election, focus has shifted to the upcoming referendum in Italy. There is a disquieting real-time poll of investor sentiment.
Active Share can be an effective way to evaluate the appropriateness of a fund manager's fee. Low Active Share funds should come with index-fund-like fees.
The lack of response at the zero bound of policy interest rates is hardly surprising. In fact, it is strikingly reminiscent of the so-called liquidity trap of the 1930s. What is particularly disconcerting is that central bankers remain largely in denial.
