The Paul Woolley Centre Conference 2016 (6&7 Oct) has been assessed and accredited by PortfolioConstruction Forum for Forum CE hours. Delegates must attest their attendance in order to receive CE acceditation.

Broad analysis of generally effective indicators of US recessions leads to the conclusion that recession risks in the US are clearly continuing to rise. A wide range of indicators confirm the message although some doubts remain.

This week, Fodder features Professor Jack Gray's top-10 rated Conference presentation, Nouriel Roubini and Stephen Roach on monetary policy, Stephen Kotkin on geopolitcs, and Pfau & Blanchett on the limits of Monte Carlo simulation.

This week, Fodder features Professor Jack Gray's top-10 rated Conference presentation, Nouriel Roubini and Stephen Roach on monetary policy, Stephen Kotkin on geopolitcs, and Pfau & Blanchett on the limits of Monte Carlo simulation.

Predicting the future raises a significant number of issues when creating an investment plan. Monte Carlo simulations will illuminate the nature of that uncertainty, but only if those using them understand how it should be applied – and its limitations.

The lack of response at the zero bound of policy interest rates is hardly surprising. In fact, it is strikingly reminiscent of the so-called liquidity trap of the 1930s. What is particularly disconcerting is that central bankers remain largely in denial.

This week, Fodder features the five top rated presentations from PortfolioConstruction Forum Conference 2016, each arguing a high conviction thesis around the theme, "The long and short of it (Is the concept of long-term investing increasingly irrelevant?)"

This week, Fodder features the five top rated presentations from PortfolioConstruction Forum Conference 2016, each arguing a high conviction thesis around the theme, "The long and short of it (Is the concept of long-term investing increasingly irrelevant?)"

In Fodder NZ this week Tim Farrelly, Michael Edesess, Tribeca Investment Partners and PIMCO's Doug Hodge challenge some common portfolio construction beliefs.

In Fodder this week Tim Farrelly, Michael Edesess, Tribeca Investment Partners and PIMCO's Doug Hodge challenge some common portfolio construction beliefs.

The latest reason offered as to why not to buy Australia's major banks is that their margins could be taken away by a well resourced disrupter. Should we not own the banks, as a result?

In Fodder this week - Bob Gay, Michael Kitces, J. Bradford DeLong, Michael Furey, and our pick of the Faculty papers from Conference 2016.

In Fodder NZ this week - Bob Gay, Michael Kitces, J. Bradford DeLong, Michael Furey, and our pick of the Faculty papers from Conference 2016.

Using a simple case study, this paper illustrates an approach to cutting through fund performance "noise" to find the signal - the bigger picture investment view that enables us to construct better investment portfolios.

Zero, and especially negative, nominal interest rates are a fool's game. We are entering the late phase of an ageing expansion when asset price bubbles and poor credit decisions sow the seeds of the next crisis.

This week, Fodder kicks off with our new Backgrounder exploring key concepts & issues in relation to managing the fundamental friction between long-term and short-term investing imperatives.

This week, Fodder NZ kicks off with our new Backgrounder exploring key concepts & issues in relation to managing the fundamental friction between long-term and short-term investing imperatives.

Conference 2016 delivered 50+ high conviction ideas on how to manage the friction between short-term and long-term investing imperatives. Here are the key takeouts.

Conference 2016 featured a stellar lineup of international and local experts offering their best high conviction idea/thesis around the the friction between short-term and long-term investing imperatives - and the portfolio construction decisions that must be made.

Short-term thinking in finance is nothing new. New paradigms may emerge slowly and without much publicity. Listen for weak signals - ideas may emerge in some unconventional ways.