Forum Fodder

Forum Fodder | Friday 03 February 2023

“We have more debt than we ever did in history. We have the weirdest valuations in history. And we have a lot more connectivity than we did before… it’s not going to be as smooth as it was for the last 15 years.” - Former quant trader and author, Nassim Nicholas Taleb, on Bloomberg (02 February 2023)

All the best for another week’s continuing education!
Graham
P.S. With investment markets more Volatile, Uncertain, Complex and Ambiguous (“VUCA”) than ever, please join us for Markets Summit 2023 “Every VUCA cloud has a silver lining!” (AEDT Wed 22 Feb 2023). And meanwhile, in prep, below we feature Ken Rogoff’s view on the global outlook, Vikram Mansharamani’s annual global development predictions and Ron Temple’s preview of his Markets Summit 2023 presentation - and Jonathan Pain’s keynote from a year ago at Markets Summit 2022 (seeems obvious now but it wasn’t 12 months ago!), along with Woody Brock’s views on inflation from end 2022, and the Economic Scenarios Roundtable 2022’s predictions.

Markets

Markets Summit 2023 “Every VUCA cloud has a silver lining!”
AEDT 8.30am-5.45pm Wednesday 22 February 2023
For the first time in decades, an inflationary gale is rattling financial markets. This once-in-a-career regime shift poses many challenges for portfolio construction practitioners. The high VUCA (volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity) market environment continues! Yet, opportunities abound for those able to identify the powerful forces reshaping the outlook for markets and reorientate their portfolios accordingly. Every VUCA cloud has a silver lining!
Markets Summit will help you better understand the key drivers of and outlook for the markets, and the opportunities and risks ahead on a three- to five-year view, to aid your search for return and to help you build better quality investor portfolios.
Join us in person at our live studio, a live site, or via live stream | 7-11 CE | Register now!

Markets

Too soon for global optimism
Many who attended this year’s World Economic Forum in Davos were struck by the jubilant mood of the CEOs in attendance. It was hard to reconcile this optimism economic uncertainty caused by the war in Ukraine.
Kenneth Rogoff, Harvard University | Read

Markets

23 global developments to watch over the next five years
Uncertainty and change are unavoidable realities of life. In the spirit of thinking differently and embracing uncertainty, I offer you this year’s global developments to watch over the next five years.
Vikram Mansharaman, Harvard University | Read

Markets | Strategies

High inflation has a silver lining for portfolios
Brace for more market volatility in 2023, and orient portfolios to resilient fixed income and equity securities, and hedge fund and infrastructure managers.
Ronald Temple, Lazard Asset Management | Watch, Listen

Markets | Strategies

The US and world economy, and inflation
Nine months ago, we were told that the world would be in recession today. This did not quite happen. Now we are assured that 2023 will see a global recession, even in the US.
Woody Brock, Strategic Economic Decisions | Read

Markets | As seen at Strategies Conference 2022

Economic Scenarios Roundtable: The future ain’t what it used to be!
In stage two of our hypothetical Investment Committee meeting, three economists described and debated three plausible, forward-looking economic and market scenarios that have a reasonable probability of occurring during the next two to three years.
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut, Andrew Hunt, John McDermott | 0.75 CE | Watch, Listen

Markets | As seen at Markets Summit 2022

The days of abnormal monetary policy are over
With US inflation at a 40-year high, and the housing and labour markets red hot, the US Fed has finally taken a distinct and meaningful step forward on the path back to normal. Investors need to accept that the days of abnormal monetary policy are over.
Jonathan Pain | 0.50 CE | Watch, Listen

Philosophy | Finology

Behavioural Finance: Investment decision-making short course
Led by behavioural finance expert, Herman Brodie, the Behavioural Finance - Investment Decision-Making course will help you identify, analyse and evaluate the principal human preferences that influence decision-making in situations of uncertainty, so you can recognise and identify these preferences in others, to improve investment decision-making.
Herman Brodie | 8.00 CE | Enrol

Markets

The fate of the global balance sheet
Just as the use of nuclear weapons promises “mutual assured destruction”, lack of economic cooperation will lead to “mutual assured deflation” because no single country can revive global demand.
Andrew Sheng and Xiao Geng | Read

Markets

Will crypto survive?
FTX may be the biggest scandal in crypto so far. But, to paraphrase Mark Twain, rumours of the death of crypto itself have been much exaggerated.
Kenneth Rogoff, Harvard University | Read

Markets | Strategies | As seen at Strategies Conference 2022

Asset Class Outlook Roundtable: Future ain’t what it used to be!
In this third step of our hypothetical Investment Committee meeting, a diverse panel of asset class experts debated the implications of the three economic scenarios outlined in the Economic Scenarios Roundtable for medium-term (three years) asset class returns.
Rob Mead, Joseph Lai, Jacob Mitchell and Isaac Poole | 0.75 CE | Watch, Listen

Markets | Strategies | As seen at Strategies Conference 2022

Alternatives Roundtable: The future ain’t what it used to be!
There is increasing traction for the idea that, to succeed in today’s complex, uncertain world of investing, practitioners must embrace alternative investment strategies. But are they all they’re made out to be?
Tony Davidow, Angela Ashton, Piers Bolger & Razvan Remsing | 0.75 CE | Watch, Listen

Markets

What should jittery China investors do?
Western investors in China face a completely different economic terrain than the one in which they operated for more than a decade. In a rapidly deglobalising world, investors must consider their next moves carefully.
Dambisa Moyo, Versaca Investments | Read

Markets | Strategies | Investing | As seen at Strategies Conference 2022

Researchers’ Roundtable: The future ain’t what it used to be!
Practitioners must remain open-minded and continuously challenge their portfolio construction beliefs, techniques and tools. This session addressed three contemporary portfolio construction issues: We must use a risk-based framework for portfolio design; The value rotation has just begun; and, ESG ratings undervalue climate solutions…
Philipp Hofflin, Michael Furey, Michael Salvatico, David Wright | 0.75 CE | Watch, Listen

Markets | Strategies | Investing | As seen at Strategies Conference 2022

Infrastructure’s inflation hedge is real, yet misunderstood
Infrastructure’s unique inflation hedge characteristics protect companies and investors while allowing a tailwind of asset base growth to drive long-term total returns.
Shane Hurst, ClearBridge Investments | 0.50 CE | Watch, Listen

Strategies | Investing | As seen at Strategies Conference 2022

The future of private debt IS what it used to be!
If the question is how to achieve an attractive risk-adjusted return through all economic environments, then private debt is the answer. The future ain’t what it used to be - except for private debt.
Andrew Lockhart, Metrics Credit Partners | 0.50 CE | Watch, Listen

Investing

Research Roundtable: Warakirri Diversified Agriculture
This Research Roundtable focused on the Warakirri Diversified Agriculture strategy, with senior practitioners deciding, after briefings, Q&A and debate, their individual rating for the strategy and whether to include it on a hypothetical APL and/or multi-manager portfolios.
Portfolio Construction Forum | 1.50 CE | Read, Watch

Markets

The age of megathreats
The world has entered a geopolitical depression with dangerous revisionist powers challenging the economic, financial, security, and geopolitical order that the US and its allies created after WWII.
Nouriel Roubini, Roubini Macro Associates | Read

Markets | Strategies

Spotlight on surviving bear markets
While equities do outperform in the long-term, the price we pay are the bear markets which periodically come along to test our staying power. This Spotlight is a guide to help investors survive bear markets.
Tim Farrelly, farrelly’s Investment Strategy | Read | Subscribe to Spotlight

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