Forum Fodder

Forum Fodder | Friday 03 March 2023

“We’ve all been mesmerised by this rise in consumer price inflation… What you are probably going to be more concerned about in the next 12 to 18 months is how much it falls.” - Jonathan Pain, Author & Publisher at The Pain Report, at Portfolio Construction Forum Markets Summit 2023 (22 February 2023).
Today’s Fodder features Jonathan’s opening keynote from last week’s Markets Summit 2023 - and all of the sessions will be available to all members over the coming weeks. Meanwhile, if you were one of the 1,300+ delegates who registered to attend Markets Summit, you’re able to watch all the sessions on-demand now - in fact, you’ve been able to since an hour or so after they were each broadcast. So if you didn’t get to all the sessions, want to rewatch some - or even chromecast them for your colleagues to watch - you can.

All the best for another week’s continuing education!
Graham
P.S. Mark Your Diary! Finology Summit 2023 “Exploring the human factors in portfolio construction!” (AEST Wed 03 May 2023). Join us in person at our live studio, a live site, or via live stream and earn 7-11 CE hours. Registration opens next week!

Markets

Sleepwalking toward accidental conflict
America, China, and Russia are collectively sleepwalking down a path of conflict escalation, carrying high-octane fuel that could be ignited all too easily. Just like 1914.
Stephen Roach, Yale University | Read

Markets | As seen at Markets Summit 2023

In every way, it is different this time
As the clouds of Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity and Ambiguity continue to swirl, the silver lining is that we are on the road back to normal monetary policy settings, from abnormal, and a return to more rational asset prices. But we must be patient.
Jonathan Pain, The Pain Report | 0.50 CE | Listen, Watch

Markets | Strategies

Spotlight on High Yield Debt investments
This Spotlight highlights that High Yield Debt can be a very useful addition to most investors’ portfolios, producing returns that are close to those of Equities, but with lower risk.
Tim Farrelly, farrelly’s Investment Strategy | Read

Finology

Investors are blind to what they do not want to see
The theory of cognitive dissonance was proposed in the 1930s by psychologist Leon Festinger. Understanding how cognitive dissonance can bias our investment decision making, and recognising when our behaviour is being driven by it, is vital.
Herman Brodie, Prospecta | 0.75 CE | Listen, Watch

Finology

Research Review: Hindsight bias and investing
Hindsight can be a valuable source of learning. However, hindsight is undermined by a range of factors and hindsight bias clouds judgments in all areas of life - including investing.
Rob Hamshar, Portfolio Construction Forum | 2.00 CE | Read

Philosophy | Finology

Behavioural Finance: Investment decision-making short course
Led by behavioural finance expert, Herman Brodie, the Behavioural Finance - Investment Decision-Making course will help you identify, analyse and evaluate the principal human preferences that influence decision-making in situations of uncertainty, so you can recognise and identify these preferences in others, to improve investment decision-making.
Herman Brodie | 8.00 CE | Enrol

Markets

Too soon for global optimism
Many who attended this year’s World Economic Forum in Davos were struck by the jubilant mood of the CEOs in attendance. It was hard to reconcile this optimism economic uncertainty caused by the war in Ukraine.
Kenneth Rogoff, Harvard University | Read

Markets

23 global developments to watch over the next five years
Uncertainty and change are unavoidable realities of life. In the spirit of thinking differently and embracing uncertainty, I offer you this year’s global developments to watch over the next five years.
Vikram Mansharaman, Harvard University | Read

Markets | Strategies

High inflation has a silver lining for portfolios
Brace for more market volatility in 2023, and orient portfolios to resilient fixed income and equity securities, and hedge fund and infrastructure managers.
Ronald Temple, Lazard Asset Management | Watch, Listen

Markets | Strategies

The US and world economy, and inflation
Nine months ago, we were told that the world would be in recession today. This did not quite happen. Now we are assured that 2023 will see a global recession, even in the US.
Woody Brock, Strategic Economic Decisions | Read

Markets | As seen at Strategies Conference 2022

Economic Scenarios Roundtable: The future ain’t what it used to be!
In stage two of our hypothetical Investment Committee meeting, three economists described and debated three plausible, forward-looking economic and market scenarios that have a reasonable probability of occurring during the next two to three years.
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut, Andrew Hunt, John McDermott | 0.75 CE | Watch, Listen

Markets | As seen at Markets Summit 2022

The days of abnormal monetary policy are over
With US inflation at a 40-year high, and the housing and labour markets red hot, the US Fed has finally taken a distinct and meaningful step forward on the path back to normal. Investors need to accept that the days of abnormal monetary policy are over.
Jonathan Pain | 0.50 CE | Watch, Listen

Markets

The fate of the global balance sheet
Just as the use of nuclear weapons promises “mutual assured destruction”, lack of economic cooperation will lead to “mutual assured deflation” because no single country can revive global demand.
Andrew Sheng and Xiao Geng | Read

Markets

Will crypto survive?
FTX may be the biggest scandal in crypto so far. But, to paraphrase Mark Twain, rumours of the death of crypto itself have been much exaggerated.
Kenneth Rogoff, Harvard University | Read

Markets | Strategies | As seen at Strategies Conference 2022

Asset Class Outlook Roundtable: Future ain’t what it used to be!
In this third step of our hypothetical Investment Committee meeting, a diverse panel of asset class experts debated the implications of the three economic scenarios outlined in the Economic Scenarios Roundtable for medium-term (three years) asset class returns.
Rob Mead, Joseph Lai, Jacob Mitchell and Isaac Poole | 0.75 CE | Watch, Listen

Markets | Strategies | As seen at Strategies Conference 2022

Alternatives Roundtable: The future ain’t what it used to be!
There is increasing traction for the idea that, to succeed in today’s complex, uncertain world of investing, practitioners must embrace alternative investment strategies. But are they all they’re made out to be?
Tony Davidow, Angela Ashton, Piers Bolger & Razvan Remsing | 0.75 CE | Watch, Listen

Markets

What should jittery China investors do?
Western investors in China face a completely different economic terrain than the one in which they operated for more than a decade. In a rapidly deglobalising world, investors must consider their next moves carefully.
Dambisa Moyo, Versaca Investments | Read

Markets | Strategies | Investing | As seen at Strategies Conference 2022

Researchers’ Roundtable: The future ain’t what it used to be!
Practitioners must remain open-minded and continuously challenge their portfolio construction beliefs, techniques and tools. This session addressed three contemporary portfolio construction issues: We must use a risk-based framework for portfolio design; The value rotation has just begun; and, ESG ratings undervalue climate solutions…
Philipp Hofflin, Michael Furey, Michael Salvatico, David Wright | 0.75 CE | Watch, Listen

Markets | Strategies | Investing | As seen at Strategies Conference 2022

Infrastructure’s inflation hedge is real, yet misunderstood
Infrastructure’s unique inflation hedge characteristics protect companies and investors while allowing a tailwind of asset base growth to drive long-term total returns.
Shane Hurst, ClearBridge Investments | 0.50 CE | Watch, Listen

Strategies | Investing | As seen at Strategies Conference 2022

The future of private debt IS what it used to be!
If the question is how to achieve an attractive risk-adjusted return through all economic environments, then private debt is the answer. The future ain’t what it used to be - except for private debt.
Andrew Lockhart, Metrics Credit Partners | 0.50 CE | Watch, Listen

Investing

Research Roundtable: Warakirri Diversified Agriculture
This Research Roundtable focused on the Warakirri Diversified Agriculture strategy, with senior practitioners deciding, after briefings, Q&A and debate, their individual rating for the strategy and whether to include it on a hypothetical APL and/or multi-manager portfolios.
Portfolio Construction Forum | 1.50 CE | Read, Watch

Forum CE Library - over 660 CE/CPD hours
Complimentary for all Forum members, the Forum’s online on-demand CE Library offers over 660 CE/CPD hours of accredited learning resources, to help members meet the CE/CPD requirements of 20 governing bodies (regulators, associations, and institutes) including ASIC, APRA, Legislated (was FASEA), FMA, AFA, FPA and CIMA^® CE/CPD requirements, to name a few.
Earn CE/CPD hours

Forum CIMA CE Library - over 125 CE hours
This subset of our full CE Library features just those learning resources that are accredited for CIMA CE hours, so CIMA certificants can more easily find learning resources to meet their recertification obligation (at the same time as meeting the CE/CPD requirements of other governing bodies e.g. ASIC, APRA, Legislated (was FASEA), FMA, etc).
Earn CIMA CE hours

Connect with me on LinkedIn
We also let my LinkedIn network know as soon as we release new articles on portfolioconstructionforum.edu.au and when registration opens for our face-to-face CE programs. If LinkedIn is more your thing than Twitter, I’d welcome you connecting. And of course, I’d welcome having an offline direct conversation with you any time.