The investment (as opposed to transaction) appeal of Bitcoins has grown and will grow. But we believe that Bitcoin will be very undesirable as an asset due to a very high degree of price volatility.

During the past three months, a salient topic of debate has been whether the so-called Phillips Curve is relevant in today's disinflationary environment. The debate is important to investors.

Twenty years ago, I predicted that the Digital Revolution would cause productivity growth to accelerate and inflation and interest rates to fall for a very long period. We now believe this trend will continue for at least another 10 and probably 20 years.

The growing belief that the US has entered an era of permanently low economic growth, due in large measure to an alleged 50% reduction in productivity growth, is wrong. Both real growth and productivity growth have been strong, not weak.

Overall stock market risk has declined modestly in the last 80 years, but the nature of risk has changed greatly. The risk stemming from market mistakes and, possibly, from irrationality has risen significantly.

Despite increasing global political risk, the probability of outright war is paradoxically lower than it might have been at any previous period in history.

In a world of risk-on/risk-off investing, it is important for investors to know where true risks lie and where they do not lie. In fact, macroeconomic risk has decreased by well over 80% during the eight decades.

Contrary to popular belief, western living standards have not declined in recent decades. Rather, government statistics failed to capture a key element of real GPD growth.