We give a 20% chance to a US corporate debt bubble burst before end 2020. It is both incredible and unconscionable that massive leverage could once again bring down Main Street a mere decade after 2008.

The fallacy that an inverted yield curve "predicts" the onset of recessions is alive and well. Many investors believe the curve will invert in 2019, precipitating a recession. But a flattening of the yield curve need not imply a recession.

President Trump's protectionist threats have raised the risks of a serious trade war, the first in over 80 years. It is assumed that this would materially impact US growth - but is that the case?

Was the recent market volatility predictable? Was the volatility exogenous or endogenous in nature? What lies ahead as regards inflation and interest rates?