Nine months ago, we were told that the world would be in recession today. This did not quite happen. Now we are assured that 2023 will see a global recession, even in the US.

Inflation will not fall back to the pre-Covid 2% level that the US Federal Reserve wants. Two underlying structural changes will keep US inflation at about 4% in the future.

Harvard's Lawrence Summers was interviewed about inflation last month. His comments focused on a single entity - the Fed. But fighting the causes of today's higher inflation is simply not within the Fed's power.

President Zelensky of Ukraine finally called a spade a spade by designating the NATO allies as cowards. The winner in all this is President Zi of China, reinforcing his view that the West is spineless and in decline.

Real US Treasury yields collapsed from 7% to -6% between 1981 and 2021, yet most people fail to understand why. Understanding changes in real rates is crucial to forecasting nominal interest rates, and the outlook for asset prices.

As governments become accustomed to spending vast sums of money and workers regain their bargaining power, the short-term inflationary pressures attributed to Covid-19 will bleed into a longer period of higher inflation.